Saturday, March 17, 2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 48, Iowa House District 95 & 96

Senate District 48
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.

House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.

New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.

The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).

Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.

In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.

Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.

In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.

Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House

House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello

Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.

Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.

Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House

Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

1 comment:

Cindy G said...

John, just for the record.......I am not running for Senate District 48 because our business has expanded to an international market. I would be out of the country at critical times for both the election cycle and the session. The citizens of SD 48 deserve an active voice in the senate and that voice should be Dan Zumbach.