Tuesday, September 10, 2013

School Election Day

Today looks like a record breaker, and not just the weather.  100˚ in September, no decent rain in 3 weeks; when did I move to Arizona?

I can't predict this election's outcome much better than anyone can predict the weather but both are hot. Based on the early voting, ICCSD turnout should pass the 6082 voters and 8.1% turnout from the February revenue purpose statement election.

We saw 942 early ballots for that one; at the end of yesterday 1487 were requested and 1385 were returned. (Possible strategic error: Over half of those unreturned mailed ballots are from the same precinct: North Liberty. In any case: DON'T MAIL THEM, bring them in if you want them counted. The postmark deadline was yesterday.)

That February election is probably the best set of benchmarks for today, mostly because it's the only other election we've ever had with these precinct lines. ICCSD added one precinct this decade. The line changes were almost all in the city of Iowa City.  Coralville and Hills are unchanged and North Liberty was barely changed so if you want to compare those to past years you're probably close enough.

But if you want to go waaaay back to compare the district-wide picture, the all-time record for a school BOARD election as opposed to a special was in 1995, at 5815, 10.8% of an 18 years ago smaller population base. The 10% mark today would be 7364. There was also a major bond issue on the ballot in `95, the one that built Wickham Elementary. The special election record was a whopping 13,189 in a December 1992 bond vote, but that one got boosted by "two elections in one" satellite sites in the last days before the presidential election.

There's money issues on this ballot, too: a physical plant/equipment levy and a Kirkwood levy. Both are renewals of existing levies, but the Iowa Republican Party declared today TAX CUT TUESDAY! urging No votes on levy renewals in general and a Polk County measure in particular.

Not to sell Johnson County's other districts short but even apart from size Iowa City is the story, in contentiousness and in turnout. Clear Creek Amana and Solon look like they're having normal contested election years, and Lone Tree is low key with three unopposed incumbents. (Lone Tree, though, has seen stealth write-in campaigns in the past.)

So, the basics: Polls open to 8. School polling places which for most people are different.

Turnout updates here. If you're trying to project, and your mileage may vary: historically the 9:00 numbers double by 11, the 11:00 numbers double by 3, and (this last one is least accurate) the 3 PM numbers double by closing time. So 9 AM times 8 or 11 AM times four gives you an idea. There's also a 6 PM update but that just started in the Weipert Administration - I assume you all know I work there - so we don't have a formula for that one yet.

Results here after 8. Special note for Clipper fans: Clear Creek Amana results vary dramatically by precinct and the Amana precinct is capable of Kim Jong Un percentages; I've seen 99% to 1%. Analysis later after the work is done.

No comments: