Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Sanders Absolutely Positively NOT Running

I've always been skeptical that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was going to follow through and actually run for president. One more nail was hammered into that coffin today, the strongest evidence yet:
Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT) said he endorsed Hillary Clinton's presidential bid on "Andrea Mitchell Reports," making him the 28th out of 44 sitting Democratic senators (64%) to have endorsed the former secretary of state, according to a survey by The Hill newspaper.
What's important here is not the sheer number of endorsements, or Leahy's standing as the senior member of the whole Senate. It's the political folkways of DC in general and the Senate in particular.

Sanders has his unusual stance of serving as an independent, and that stance is a barrier, I think the single biggest barrier, to his candidacy: to seek the Democratic Party nomination, he would have to actually join the Democratic Party.

But as a Senator, both back home and in DC, he's functionally a de facto Democrat. And while he may be the very left edge of the mainstream of U.S. politics, he also works within the broad cultural norms of Congress (certainly better than some of the barn burners in the House Republican caucus who vote against their own party's speaker on day one in office).

So Pat Leahy is his home state, same party Senate colleague. True, there are occasions when such partners don't personally get along, but they're rare enough to be notable and there's no evidence that Sanders and Leahy, who've served together in DC a quarter century, are anything less than cordial.

If your home state partner is running for president, you're generally expected to support them, and the very least you do is sit on the sidelines a bit:
Hillary: Please endorse me.
Pat: I'll be there but I have to wait till Bernie decides.
Hillary: YOU ARE DISLOYAL TO THE ONE TRUE LEADER! ALL OF VERMONT SHALL SUFFER MY WRATH!!!1! THE STREETS WILL FLOW WITH THE BLOOD OF THE NONBELIEVERS!
Actually it's more like:
Hillary: Please endorse me.
Pat: I'll be there but I have to wait till Bernie decides.
Hillary. Understood. Ya gotta take care of Vermont.
And courtesy would dictate that before a Clinton endorsement, Leahy would talk to Sanders, perhaps for breakfast. Two scenarios, A:
Pat: Bernie, I want to endorse Hillary. OK by you?
Bernie: Can you do a brother a solid and hold off a few weeks? I'll have my mind made up by the end of sap season.
Pat: Sure.
Or B:
Pat: Bernie, I want to endorse Hillary. OK by you?
Bernie: No problem. Pass the maple syrup.
So clearly, the conversation happened and it played out like Scenario B.

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