A nasty undemocratic confession: I'm somewhat contemptuous of voters who are defiant independens, who "vote the person not the party." I'm not proud of it but I can't deny it. My gut feeling is that these voters either 1) just aren't tuned into the process enough to recognize the very real differences between the two major parties; or 2) really lean one way or the other but have been socialized not to admit it, that it's "bad manners" to be partisan.
This article at Donkey Rising gives me some support for #2:
The recent trend in presidential voting among independents is consistent with another trend in this group. Political scientists have long recognized that most independent identifiers are not totally neutral toward the two major parties. The large majority of independents lean toward one party or the other, and these leaning independents vote overwhelmingly for the party that they lean toward. In 2004, for example, according to the ANES, 88 percent of independent Democrats voted for John Kerry while 85 percent of independent Republicans voted for George Bush.
In 2004, 45 percent of independents expressed a preference for the Democratic Party while only 30 percent expressed a preference for the Republican Party.
This illustrates several interesting things. First off, it means 75% of independents are actually partisans, albiet mild partisans.
It also means we need to factor these leaners in. The study showed the elctorate self-IDing as 32% Democratic, 29% GOP, and 38% "independent" (sic). But break out the leaners, and factor in slighly lower turnout among self-IDd independents, and you have an electorate that's about 49% Democratic, 41% Republican, and only 9% pure "independent" (sic).
Important implications: It's about base and turnout, and that's a battle that despite great Democratic efforts the GOP won. Fewer votes in the middle, where Kerry was looking, are up for grabs, and in the present party alignment a Johnson or Reagan sized landslide is impossible.
Politics
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