British Blur

British Blur

Random first impressions before I start tainting my brain with anyone else's analysis.

My blogging got interrupted last night first by a meeting then by CSPAN's decision to leave the BBC at 9 PM (3 AM UK time). I was able to get the BBC feed on line but the poor three year old laptop was bleeding from the strain of streaming video and half a dozen open tabs.

A near-perfect result from my point of view. Labour is zinged, and the zinging was explicitly about the war. It would only take about 30 or 35 back bench defections for Blair to lose a confidence vote, and that puts him under some pressure even if he commands majority support within the Labour MPs. (I don't know how a leadership challenge works in Labour.)

I would have rather seen the Lib Dems benefit a little more, it was a perfect storm for thee. Yet they find themselves in their strongest position since Labour became a major party.

And I'm surprised by Howard's announcement that he's standing down. He may have suffered an electoral defeat, but it was at least a moral victory, similar to Kinnock in `87. I suppose that when you look a little closer, the Tories didn't really GAIN so much as Labour LOST, and they just barely failed to break the 200 seat mark.

The really interesting math of a three-party plus system is that Labour can win an outright majority with only 36% of the vote. Makes Clinton's 43% in 1992 look massive... of course the UK is really a four way election when the regional parties are factored in.

In the end I think this is a transitional result, much like 1992 was. Much will depend on when Blair steps down and how much time before the 2009/10 election Gordon Brown (presumably) will have to put his stamp on the party. Brown could emerge as a John Major, consolidating Labour's gains temporarily. Or he could be James Callaghan, an interim leader hanging on and delaying the inevitable. In any case I don't think this result allows Blair to hang on four or five more years.

The first test is in a month, with an oddball by-election. The Lib Dem candidate in one seat died, and the way the Brits do things they postpone the election if the candidate dies, even if it's the Loony candidate.

UK Election