IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)
That's the number from Majority Watch from Constituent Dynamics. Can't give you a direct link to the details - it's in Flash, click on the dot that appears to be located at about Washington IA. (Local pronunciation: "Warshington.") Margin is +/- 3% with a good track record in `04.
A regional breakdown shows Leach up 3 in the northern tier (Linn, Johnson, Muscatine, cedar) and Loebsack ahead 6 in the rest of the CD. This mirrors the voting patterns from other competitive races against Leach - Bob Rush in `96 and `98 and Julie Thomas in `02. It also matches the yardsign pattern I'm seeing in places like Jefferson and Davis Counties.
Definitely an optimistic mood when I stopped by Loebsack HQ. The candidate was off to a musical fundraiser at The Mill ($10 and still time to get there!) and said he felt confident in his debate showing last night.
MyDD looks at national results of this poll and headlines "New House polls will show looming Democratic landslide"
Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205
Look for more good news, and perhaps even more alliterative headlines, from Loebsack land when quarterly fundraising reports are complete...
"But he's a nice guy" isn't good enough anymore. Even "but he voted against the war" isn't good enough, because as long as Leach's party is in power no serious change will happen. A vote for Leach is a vote for Dennis Hastert. This is the year to elect a DEMOCRAT.
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