Register Polls Issues, Misses Intensity

Register Polls Issues, Misses Intensity

Closer to home and closer to reality, the Register poll measures near-even splits on Iowa's English Only and stem cell bans and on discrimination against gays.

What these kinds of polls don't measure is intensity on these issues.It's not raw numbers that move voting behavior, it's strength of feeling. And on all these issues, the intensity is with the theocrats. Democrats may feel mildly that English Only is kinda sorta mean-spirited, but the Steve King-Tom Tancredo wing of the GOP is enraged every time someone speaks Spanish in public and clings fiercely to their oversimplified, "illegal means illegal" rhetoric. This, sadly, moves more votes than a reasoned approach, even when the reasoned approach is supported by a soft majority.

The challenge to progressives is to move people's voting behavior and match the intensity, without falling into the hate traps that fuel the right.

(Aside: Watch for Tom Tancredo to be the surprise breakout candidate next January. And expect his numbers to be best in places like Muscatine with large Hispanic populations.)