This is not a policy analysis, it's an inside-inside baseball election geek post: What will happen if a presidential candidate who’s in mid-term gets elected president or VP?
In some cases this is going to require some suspension of disbelief and snarkiness. But remember, today's also-ran could well be next summer's running mate, and with the Senate dead even these details could affect running mate choices.
The important things to look at are:
1. Filing deadlines. How late can you get out of the presidential race and settle for re-election?
2. Gubernatorial control. If you’re a Senator, do you have a governor of the same party, and can she or he appoint a replacement? Also: Is the special election immediate or with the next general election?
3. Having it both ways: Can you do what LBJ, Lloyd Bentsen, and Joementum did, and run for re-election and Vice President at the same time?
Part 1: The Democrats
Of the leading Dems, only John Edwards is currently out of office. He would have been able to run both for VP and re-election in 2004, but didn’t.
Hillary Clinton: Re-elected 2006. Democratic Governor Spitzer appoints replacement. Assuming she resigns after 1/1/09, the seat goes on the ballot in 2010 for a two year term. (Thanks: NY Sec of State’s Office)
Barack Obama: Elected 2004. Democratic Governor Blagojevich appoints replacement who runs in 2010 for full term.
Chris Dodd: Re-elected 2004. Dodd has already announced a 2010 retirement, assuming he is not elected president or VP. If he is, Republican Governor Rell would appoint a replacement, with the full term on the ballot in `10. Connecticut had a GOP governor in 2000 too, and the Dems could have won the presidency yet seen the GOP take over the Senate seat despite Lieberman getting re-elected (he ran for both). Actually, now that I think of it, both those things in fact happened.
Joe Biden: Term expires 2008. The office of the Delaware Secretary of State tells me:
Delaware's 2008 primary will be held Sept 9, 2008 for candidates that file by 12 noon July 25,2008. Delaware does not prohibit running for two offices during the same election.
Bill Richardson, the only sitting governor on either side, was re-elected in 2006. If Richardson were elected Lt. Gov. Diane Denish would assume office. She’s a Democrat, as the governor and lieutenant governor run as a team. But the lieutenant governor runs in a primary and isn’t hand-picked by the gubernatorial nominee as in Iowa. (Technically, the state party convention nominates the Iowa Lite Guv, but c’mon.) She’s already announced for Governor in 2010, as Richardson is term-limited.
There were some reports in the New Mexico press late in 2005 where Denish said Richardson was a little too touch-feely, then she back-pedaled a bit. The same stories also say “they’ve been allies 20 years.” From the context it sounds not so much like a pervy harrassment thing because he touches everybody, men and women. Not having met him yet, he sounds like a guy without a space bubble, the way Lyndon Johnson used to physically cajole people.
Dennis Kucinich has a February filing deadline for a May House primary. He ran for re-election in 2004 while still seeking the presidency. His only primary season win was when he was re-nominated for the House on the same day he lost the Ohio presidential primary.
Snarkiness back on for a tangent: Kooky may be vulnerable to a primary challenge. The district was held by Republican Martin Hoke under odd circumstances for two terms. (Hoke knocked off incumbent Mary Rose Oakar, one of the worst offenders in the House check bouncing scandal, in 1992. Then he held on in ‘94 because it was ‘94.)
Cleveland is carefully gerrymandered into Stephanie Tubbs-Jones’ black majority district and into what even Kookcinich calls his own “polka-kielbasa-bowling” district. His policies aren’t the problem as much as his New Agey persona. Peace can sell in a working class district, ask Jack Murtha for details, but meditation is a non-starter. If I were a lunch-bucket Cleveland Democrat I’d be taking a look, and Dennis needs to tend his home fires.
Coming soon, after I get a couple e-mails back: The GOP.
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