Rural Counties: Less Caucus Goers Per Delegate

Rural Counties: Less Caucus Goers Per Delegate

Since the Iowa Democratic caucuses are a representative democracy, not a straight one person one vote, not every caucus goer carries equal weight.  Presidential candidates are spending a lot of time in small courthouse towns, because the way the results are counted, the small counties weigh in disproportionately.

An analysis of 2004 caucus attendance shows that, on average statewide, it took just under 41 caucus goers to elect a state delegate equivalent.  The easiest county to elect a delegate was Fremont County, where 22.3 caucus goers translated into a state delegate.

The hardest places to elect delegates, in contrast, were college counties, with Johnson County far ahead of the rest.  In Johnson County, it took 79.2 people to elect a delegate, nearly twice the state average and almost four times the level of Fremont County.

Poweshiek County, home of Grinnell, and Story County, site of Iowa State, ranked second and fourth hardest.  Squeezed in at third was Jefferson County, where the meditator community centered around Maharishi International University  led Dennis Kucinich to a near-win, his strongest showing in the nation.  Luther College's Winneshiek County was also in the top ten.

Those statistics are likely to shift in 2008 with the caucuses occurring over collegiate breaks.  But even the calendar shift doesn't change the underlying fact: some counties are full of go-to-meeting activists while others have more rank and file voters.

The caucuses take place in a mythical, projected version of a general election voting population, because caucus apportionment is based on votes for the top of the ticket.  In 2004 the counts were based on votes for Al Gore in 2000 and Tom Vilsack in 2002; likewise this year's counts are based on John Kerry and Chet Culver.  In all four of those contests, Johnson County had the top Democratic percentages in the state.  While those Johnson County voters are the most likely to vote Democratic, they're also the most likely to spend two or three hours at a meeting.

Another factor that skews caucus representation toward rural counties is the state's shifting population.  Joining the college counties in the top ten list of hardest counties to elect delegates are high-growth areas in central Iowa -- Dallas, Madison, Polk and Warren counties, four of the six fastest growing counties in the state from July 2000 to July 2003 (the Census estimates closest to caucus dates).  Dallas County grew 13.2% in those three years.  But a voter who moved to Dallas County three years before the caucuses won't count in the county's presidential vote totals used to calculate delegates, because they voted somewhere else.  A voter who moved in after the gubernatorial election wouldn't count at all toward the delegate count.

The other high growth counties hurt in caucus apportionment are Johnson County again, plus Benton County.  But Benton's exurban commuters to  Cedar Rapids and Waterloo were less likely to caucus, as the county ranked 63rd in attendees per delegate.

In contrast, Fremont County, the easiest place to win a delegate, lost 2.3% of its population over the same period.  Yet voters who were no longer in the county still helped its delegate count.  Sac County, the fasted shrinking county in 2000-2003 (-5.1%), ranked number 83 on the caucus goers per delegate list.

This helps explain dynamics like three Democrats showing up within 20 hours in Carroll.  It also means candidates can't run up the score with big wins in big counties.  But paradoxically, it also mutes the impact of the holiday break in college towns -- whether 30 students or 300 show up in Iowa City Precinct 5 (all dorms and frat houses), the same six delegates are at stake.  It also helps a candidate with isolated hotspots of support (like Kucinich in 2004) and hurts candidates with low but evenly spread backing.

Ultimately, the apportionment rules mean candidates have to carefully allocate their resources and fight on all fronts at once, and part of that allocation is making the effort where the most bang for the buck is available -- the small towns.

Rank	County	Attendance (2004)	State Delegate Equivalent (2004)	Attendees per delegate (2004)
1	Johnson	11169	141	79.21
2	Poweshiek	1396	20	69.80
3	Jefferson	890	13	68.46
4	Story	5674	86	65.98
5	Decatur	437	8	54.63
6	Warren	2453	47	52.19
7	Polk	21821	430	50.75
8	Winneshiek	992	20	49.60
9	Dallas	2111	43	49.09
10	Madison	681	15	45.40
11	Cedar	766	18	42.56
12	Jasper	1868	44	42.45
13	Marshall	1696	40	42.40
14	Davis	330	8	41.25
15	Mahaska	648	16	40.50
16	Woodbury	3255	81	40.19
17	Muscatine	1404	35	40.11
18	Boone	1240	31	40.00
18	Marion	1120	28	40.00
20	Buchanan	908	23	39.48
21	Iowa	592	15	39.47
22	Greene	473	12	39.42
23	Wapello	1615	41	39.39
24	Clay	590	15	39.33
25	Adair	351	9	39.00
26	Bremer	889	23	38.65
27	Palo Alto	424	11	38.55
28	Linn	8716	228	38.23
29	Wayne	228	6	38.00
30	Monroe	303	8	37.88
31	Hardin	715	19	37.63
32	Webster	1531	41	37.34
33	Hamilton	634	17	37.29
34	Louisa	371	10	37.10
35	Washington	701	19	36.89
36	Des Moines	1879	51	36.84
37	Buena Vista	589	16	36.81
38	Appanoose	478	13	36.77
39	Sioux	398	11	36.18
40	Union	464	13	35.69
41	Dubuque	3739	105	35.61
42	Adams	177	5	35.40
43	Kossuth	698	20	34.90
44	Scott	5566	161	34.57
45	Harrison	414	12	34.50
45	Monona	345	10	34.50
47	Keokuk	344	10	34.40
48	Pottawattamie	2331	68	34.28
49	Jackson	718	21	34.19
50	Mills	333	10	33.30
51	Tama	632	19	33.26
52	Clayton	663	20	33.15
53	Ringgold	197	6	32.83
54	Black Hawk	4450	136	32.72
55	Guthrie	392	12	32.67
56	Plymouth	552	17	32.47
57	Van Buren	194	6	32.33
58	Fayette	708	22	32.18
59	Shelby	289	9	32.11
60	Ida	224	7	32.00
61	Henry	605	19	31.84
62	Cass	381	12	31.75
63	Benton	857	27	31.74
64	Chickasaw	504	16	31.50
65	Page	306	10	30.60
66	Carroll	635	21	30.24
67	Audubon	241	8	30.13
68	Howard	330	11	30.00
69	Franklin	328	11	29.82
70	Grundy	298	10	29.80
71	Wright	386	13	29.69
72	Crawford	355	12	29.58
73	Floyd	525	18	29.17
74	Cerro Gordo	1586	55	28.84
75	Lucas	256	9	28.44
76	O'Brien	281	10	28.10
77	Jones	617	22	28.05
78	Clarke	308	11	28.00
79	Allamakee	360	13	27.69
80	Butler	354	13	27.23
81	Delaware	489	18	27.17
82	Winnebago	323	12	26.92
83	Sac	268	10	26.80
84	Lee	1193	45	26.51
85	Dickinson	477	18	26.50
85	Humboldt	265	10	26.50
85	Pocahontas	212	8	26.50
88	Lyon	158	6	26.33
89	Calhoun	287	11	26.09
90	Osceola	103	4	25.75
91	Montgomery	203	8	25.38
92	Taylor	149	6	24.83
93	Worth	248	10	24.80
94	Mitchell	278	12	23.17
95	Hancock	254	11	23.09
96	Emmet	230	10	23.00
97	Cherokee	295	13	22.69
98	Clinton	1326	59	22.47
99	Fremont	156	7	22.29
	Statewide	122193	3000	40.73