Branstad 46 BVP31

Actual GOP Primary Numbers

Public Policy Polling: "Branstad currently stands at a surprisingly low 46%, followed by Vander Plaats at 31% and Rod Roberts at 13%."

Branstad leads big with seniors (55-20) while it's dead even with younger voters. In a low turnout primary, advantage Terry.

Among voters that actually know who Vander Plaats is- whether they see him favorably or unfavorably- he leads Branstad 42-37. The question is if there's enough time left for Vander Plaats to completely make up the huge gap in name recognition he began the campaign with.

The other question: Do Roberts' people see this and bail on him? And where do they go? (To BVP)

Main chance establishment Republicans have been dropping like flies this primary season. But also worth noting: Vander Plaats' 31% is exactly what he got in his 2002 primary run. The guy has a base of exactly 31 points... but does he have a ceiling of support not much higher than that?

And none of these three guys is a natural fit for the tea partier mold the way, say, Steve King is. This could still turn out to be one of those Vote Against elections. A lot can change in seven days; don't forget it's Chuck Norris Week for BVP.

Also noted: P-C endorses MMM.