Zumbach announces in Senate 48

Instant Lame Duck Gets Primary ?

Republican Cindy Golding has already pulled off the rare trick of being a lame duck before even getting elected. Now she's got a primary challenger, too.

At least one Republican lacks enough confidence in Golding's chances in the Battle of Marion special election that he's entering the race for the district Golding hopes to run in next fall. (Update: Bleeding Heartland now notes that there may be two, with Some Dude Brian Cook considering the race as well.)

Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan, in Delaware County, started looking at Senate 48 as far back as July and filed a campaign organization statement (pdf) in August, long before there was any hint that Democrat Swati Dandekar was resigning.

A refresher on geography: New Senate District 48 has very little overlap with Old Senate 18. The districts share just three townships - Fayette, rural Marion,and Monroe - and the city of Palo. The new turf then sprawls into northern and eastern Linn County, most of the population of Jones County, and all the way up into Delaware and Buchanan.

The Republican nominee in the Battle Of Marion, Cindy Golding, lives in Monroe Township - in old District 18 but NOT in new District 34, which includes Marion city and the vast majority of old Senate 18. Democrat Liz Mathis, of rural Robins, and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack, of Hiawatha, both live in bth old 18 and new 34.

Golding has already announced that, if elected on November 8, she will seek re-election not in new District 34, where most of her constituents live, but in District 48, where she owns a very, very, very nice house. Rep. Nate Willems (D-Lisbon) announced for Senate 48 shortly after The Map was approved.

So even though it was kind of public knowledge that Zumbach was running, why emphasize it now? Why shoot out a press-release now, just 12 days before the special election, that got picked up by both the Dubuque Telegraph Herald and the Register? It suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations.