Betting The Beret

OK, here's the polls

PPP:

Paul 20
Romney 19
Santorum 18
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 4
Roemer 2

Adds up to 95. Who the hell the 4 percent are for the Screw Iowa Huntsman, isn't explained. And has Buddy Roemer -- whose votes actually will be tabulated, even set foot in this state?

Register:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingrich 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7

Adds up to 93.

I know the officially polled momentum has been downward, and I know I have a unique viewpoint here in the People's Republic. But I think all the late polls are seriously underestimating the crossover for Ron Paul. Without a compelling reason to go to the Democratic caucus -- and no, an uncommitted vote or seeing Obama on TV aren't compelling reasons -- left-leaning independents and a significant number of Democrats will cross over, and that'll be just ebough to put Ron Paul over the top. Well, Ron is kind of over the top anyway.

So here's how I'm calling it:

Paul 23
Santorum 21
Romney 20
Gingrich 14
Perry 12
Bachmann 7 and dropping out on caucus night
Other 1.5
Cain 1 percent round that down to 0.999
Huntsman 0.5
Roemer some two digit number of total votes

The nationals are underestimating the crossover appeal of Ron Paul--not to me, but to antiwar Democrats who really don't have much excitement on the Democratic side. The preemptive grumbling about crossovers has already started, and as distasteful as I find the practice the rules are the rules.

Note that insanely low "win" number at 23 percent. Mitt tries to spin that as "three way tie."

The Santorum second will play out like the Pat Robertson second of 1988, only more so with the Ron Paul first. End result will be that whatever party establishment is left behind Newt and Perry will move en masse to Mitt.

Bachmann drops out on caucus night. one of Gingrich and Perry survives to South Carolina, and Mitt de facto clinches in Florida.