Senate District 38
Registration: D 10963, R 12549, N 16512, total 40051, R +1586
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone
Clean,
easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three
whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman
Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa then went west
and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is
still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home
county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney
retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that
county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines
give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500
registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which
means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
Democrat Shelley Parbs of Urbana easily won a three way primary with 58%, with Nick Volk at 23% and LaForest Sherman at 18.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Kapucian for State Senate, Parbs for IA Senate
Clearly this one is high on the target list for both sides. Kapucian
has the cash on hand lead with $41,258.67, and raised $11,525 in the
post-primary filing period, $5800 from various PACs. But Parbs leads in
recent fundraising with $16,305, including $12,450 from mainly labor
PACs. My bet is a lot of that was deferred till after the primary. She
has $15,041.61 in the bank.
House District 75
Registration: D 5469, R 5986, N 8591, total 20058, R +517
Incumbent: Dawn Pettengill, R-Mt. Auburn
Grudge
match: Pettingill irked Democrats when she was one, defecting on key
votes. Then on the last day of the 2007 session she defected all the way
across the aisle to the other party. But she won with 55% in 2008, down
just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. She then
went unopposed in 2010 in one of the Democrats' more painful recruiting
failures.
They didn't let that happen again, as small-business owner Sandra Cronbaugh
of Marengo is running. The swing seat numbers, and the hard feelings,
are going to keep this seat on the Democratic target list.
But the
turf is familiar, as Pettengill keeps her entire old district. This is
kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85%
of an ideal House District and the county stays whole; the piece of
Iowa County grows by a township.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Pettengill for Iowans, Cronbaugh for House
Cronvaugh raised just over %5000 in the post-primary period and has
$4,577.28 on hand. Pettingil has $2,202 on hand, remarkably low for an
incumbent.
House District 76
Registration: D 5494, R 6563, N 7921, total 19993, R +1069
No Incumbent
While
the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is
completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts.
Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of
southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk
County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of
Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for
multiple cycles. The 2010 wave swept out Democrat Eric Palmer and
replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are
both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. About
60% of the seat is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the
bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of
the Amanas. The new lines place it near the middle of the pack: #61
most Democratic/#40 most Republican.
Democrats united early behind Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly, who won her first term in 2009. Business owner David Maxwell easily beat county supervisor Larry Wilson in the Republican primary, 67-33%.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Friends for Rachel Bly, MAXWELL FOR STATE HOUSE Maxwell has a slim money lead with $12,657.41 on hand, but he was spending on a primary. Bly had $11,072.35 in the bank.
Senate District 38, House District 75 & 76: District of the Day 1 - 6/15/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012
The worst.
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