In 2008, Rural Counties Had Less Caucus Goers Per Delegate

This is a rewrite of a post from 2007. 2008 turnout by county data was next to impossible to find, but Bleeding Heartland finally tracked it down. She did the legwork, I just did the math.

Since the Iowa Democratic caucuses are a representative democracy, not a straight one person one vote, not every caucus goer carries equal weight.  Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and especially Martin O'Malley have spent a lot of time in small courthouse towns, because the way the results are counted, the small counties weigh in disproportionately.

An analysis of 2008 caucus attendance shows that, on average statewide, it took just under 96 people to elect a state delegate equivalent, up from 41 caucus goers per to elect a state delegate equivalent in 2004. But this year, unlike 2004, no place is more than double or less than half the state average.

Some counties are full of go-to-meeting activists while others have more rank and file voters.

The easiest place to elect a delegate was Osceola County, where it took 59.67 attendees per state delegate equivalent. The bottom ten is filled with small, rural, GOP leaning counties, with the curious exception of Clinton.

And once again, the hardest places to elect state delegates were campus counties. In Winneshiek, home to Decorah's Luther College, it took 138 people to elect a state delegate equivalent, 2.3 times as many as in Osceola. Johnson County, the hardest place to elect a delegate in 2004, is narrowly behind Winneshiek at 134 bodies per state delegate equivalent.

Put another way: A "vote" in Osceola County is worth more than twice as much as getting out a Luther undergrad.

But it's worth noting that with the turnout surge almost everywhere in 2008, the range between counties is narrower than it was in 2004. In that year  it took 79.2 people to elect a Johnson County delegate, nearly twice the state average and almost four times the level of Fremont County, where 22.3 caucus goers translated into a state delegate.

The top ten of hardest places to elect delegates were college counties including Story and Jefferson (Fairfield) and high growth suburban areas like Dallas and Warren counties. And, oddly, a couple of the most Republican places in the state, Page and Sioux counties. I didn't even think there WERE 743 Democrats in Sioux County.

High growth makes it harder to elect a delegate from your county. A voter who moved to Dallas County three years ago won't count in the county's presidential vote totals used to calculate delegates, because they voted somewhere else.  A voter who moved in after the gubernatorial election wouldn't count at all toward the delegate count.

The flip side is, people in shrinking rural counties who moved away or passed away still contribute to the county's delegate allocation, meaning it takes fewer LIVE bodies to win delegates..


The caucuses take place in a mythical, projected version of a general election voting population, because caucus apportionment is based on votes for the top of the ticket.  In 2008 the counts were based on votes for John Kerry in 2004 and Chet Culver in 2006; likewise this year's counts are based on Obama `12 and Jack Hatch. 

This means candidates can't run up the score with big wins in big counties, and it mutes the impact of isolated turnout waves.  Whether 30 students or 300 show up in Iowa City Precinct 5 (all dorms and frat houses), the same six delegates are at stake. 

Ultimately, the apportionment rules mean candidates have to carefully allocate their resources and fight on all fronts at once, and part of that allocation is making the effort where the most bang for the buck is available -- the small towns.

Rank	County	Attendance	State Delegate Equivalent (2008)	Attendees Per Delegate (2008)
1	Winneshiek	2347	17	138.06
2	Johnson	18362	137	134.03
3	Dallas	5000	39	128.21
4	Polk	44098	358	123.18
5	Story	9227	77	119.83
6	Jefferson	1722	15	114.80
7	Warren	4230	38	111.32
8	Audubon	542	5	108.40
9	Page	745	7	106.43
10	Sioux	732	7	104.57
11	Marion	2405	23	104.57
12	Decatur	627	6	104.50
13	Poweshiek	1735	17	102.06
14	Madison	1205	12	100.42
15	Boone	2390	24	99.58
16	Mills	694	7	99.14
17	Greene	786	8	98.25
18	Kossuth	1354	14	96.71
19	Carroll	1536	16	96.00
20	Muscatine	3069	32	95.91
21	Jasper	3282	35	93.77
22	Harrison	937	10	93.70
23	Cass	843	9	93.67
24	Des Moines	3761	41	91.73
25	Iowa	1184	13	91.08
26	Webster	2912	32	91.00
27	Henry	1273	14	90.93
28	Clayton	1453	16	90.81
29	Cedar	1451	16	90.69
30	Wapello	2784	31	89.81
31	Linn	18139	202	89.80
32	Scott	12552	142	88.39
33	Hamilton	1228	14	87.71
34	Washington	1393	16	87.06
35	Jackson	1738	20	86.90
36	Fayette	1557	18	86.50
37	Palo Alto	690	8	86.25
38	Marshall	2757	32	86.16
39	Guthrie	774	9	86.00
40	Pottawattamie	4723	55	85.87
41	Woodbury	5836	68	85.82
42	Montgomery	514	6	85.67
43	Adams	256	3	85.33
43	Bremer	1792	21	85.33
45	Grundy	679	8	84.88
46	Dubuque	7627	90	84.74
47	Adair	506	6	84.33
48	Sac	589	7	84.14
49	Fremont	419	5	83.80
50	Lee	2846	34	83.71
51	Mahaska	1070	13	82.31
52	Davis	492	6	82.00
53	Monona	655	8	81.88
54	Wayne	409	5	81.80
55	Plymouth	1063	13	81.77
56	Hardin	1144	14	81.71
57	Tama	1306	16	81.63
58	Floyd	1224	15	81.60
59	Buchanan	1626	20	81.30
60	Lyon	324	4	81.00
61	Jones	1451	18	80.61
62	Clay	963	12	80.25
63	Black Hawk	9382	117	80.19
64	Lucas	559	7	79.86
65	Buena Vista	954	12	79.50
65	Wright	795	10	79.50
67	Crawford	791	10	79.10
68	Appanoose	867	11	78.82
69	Union	706	9	78.44
70	Humboldt	548	7	78.29
71	Ida	391	5	78.20
72	Monroe	469	6	78.17
73	O'Brien	546	7	78.00
74	Allamakee	934	12	77.83
75	Dickinson	1082	14	77.29
76	Keokuk	614	8	76.75
77	Chickasaw	996	13	76.62
78	Pocahontas	455	6	75.83
79	Louisa	605	8	75.63
80	Van Buren	377	5	75.40
81	Delaware	1126	15	75.07
82	Benton	1723	23	74.91
83	Franklin	598	8	74.75
84	Cerro Gordo	3416	46	74.26
85	Worth	588	8	73.50
86	Ringgold	367	5	73.40
87	Winnebago	656	9	72.89
88	Calhoun	583	8	72.88
89	Shelby	575	8	71.88
90	Clarke	568	8	71.00
91	Howard	631	9	70.11
92	Clinton	3203	46	69.63
93	Cherokee	693	10	69.30
94	Hancock	618	9	68.67
95	Emmet	539	8	67.38
96	Mitchell	663	10	66.30
97	Butler	729	11	66.27
98	Taylor	318	5	63.60
99	Osceola	179	3	59.67
	Total	239872	2500	- average 95.95