Donald Trump's Dubuque County win in November leaves Johnson County as the Iowa county with the longest continuous Democratic presidential winning streak, back to LBJ vs. Goldwater in 1964. When I researched that years ago, I wasn't surprised by Ike, but I was surprised that despite a strong Irish Catholic Democrat heritage, Johnson County picked Nixon over JFK in the last GOP win.
I thought people were tired of November election numbers, until Pat Rynard at Iowa Starting Line did an epic, precinct-level post, "How Dubuque County Went Republican For The 1st Time Since Eisenhower," last week. After that I threatened to do the same for Johnson County, and no one told me not to. So I'm blatantly stealing Pat's idea and format and replacing Dubuque's numbers with Iowa City's.
| Dubuque Co. | 2016 | 2016% | 2012 | 2012% | Vote Diff | % Diff |
| Trump/Romney | 23,460 | 47.20% | 21,280 | 41.80% | 2,180 | 5.40% |
| Clinton/Obama | 22,850 | 46.00% | 28,768 | 56.50% | -5,918 | -10.60% |
| Stein | 379 | 0.80% | 111 | 0.20% | 268 | 0.50% |
| Johnson | 2,013 | 4.00% | 438 | 0.90% | 1,575 | 3.20% |
| Other | 1,019 | 2.00% | 297 | 0.60% | 722 | 1.50% |
| Total | 49,721 | 50,894 | -1,173 | |||
| Johnson Co. | 2016 | 2016% | 2012 | 2012% | Vote Diff | % Diff |
| Trump/Romney | 21044 | 27.35% | 23698 | 31.19% | -2,654 | -3.84% |
| Clinton/Obama | 50200 | 65.25% | 50666 | 66.69% | -466 | -1.44% |
| Stein | 878 | 1.14% | 333 | 0.44% | 545 | 0.70% |
| Johnson | 2758 | 3.58% | 846 | 1.11% | 1,912 | 2.47% |
| Other | 2060 | 2.68% | 434 | 0.57% | 1,626 | 2.11% |
| Total | 77,476 | 76,199 | 1,277 |
At first, I thought this would be a lot of number crunching for not much insight. I had dismissed the local results as Johnson County Normal - a slight drop for Hillary, a bigger drop for Donald, and a slightly larger Democratic margin than Obama won over Romney.
But the closer I looked, the more I saw national and state level patterns mirrored close to home. The results seem to not be so much More Of The Same as they are multiple trends in different directions that came very close to balancing out.
Pat split Dubuque city into four chunks and looked at the rest of the county as a whole. I broke slightly bigger Iowa City into five. I also broke out Coralville, North Liberty, and I split the rural part of the county into two. (Polling places listed may vary as we moved some precincts between 2012 and 2016).
Let's start by looking at the two parts of Iowa City that people think of when they think "Iowa City."
Campus and Downtown
Precincts 3 and 5 are dorm-dominated; 3 also has a chunk of neighborhood and an apartment chunk of mostly med students. 19 is almost entirely student apartments. 11 and 20 are mainly student apartments though 11 has a chunk of working class neighborhood (where I live) and 20 has a couple senior buildings. Those are the five traditional "student" precincts. 13 has trended student since the construction of the Hawks Ridge apartment complex - though in a retrospective edit, I see that I should have grouped it somewhere else.
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC03 Petersen | 551 | 33.39% | 967 | 58.61% | 19 | 1.15% | 87 | 5.27% | 26 | 1.58% | 1,657 |
| IC05 UI Library | 455 | 24.70% | 1,252 | 67.97% | 16 | 0.87% | 86 | 4.67% | 33 | 1.79% | 1,847 |
| IC11 UI Library | 409 | 25.79% | 1,041 | 65.64% | 26 | 1.64% | 79 | 4.98% | 31 | 1.95% | 1,588 |
| IC13 Hawks Ridge | 238 | 17.80% | 977 | 73.07% | 27 | 2.02% | 52 | 3.89% | 43 | 3.22% | 1,349 |
| IC19 Rec Center | 334 | 23.16% | 959 | 66.50% | 26 | 1.80% | 89 | 6.17% | 34 | 2.36% | 1,442 |
| IC20 Senior Center | 343 | 20.64% | 1,183 | 71.18% | 29 | 1.74% | 71 | 4.27% | 36 | 2.17% | 1,666 |
| Campus subtotal | 2,330 | 24.40% | 6,379 | 66.80% | 143 | 1.50% | 464 | 4.86% | 203 | 2.13% | 9,549 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC03 Quad | 565 | 35.01% | 1,000 | 61.96% | 5 | 0.31% | 29 | 1.80% | 15 | 0.93% | 1,614 |
| IC05 UI Library | 539 | 32.28% | 1,075 | 64.37% | 4 | 0.24% | 39 | 2.34% | 13 | 0.78% | 1,672 |
| IC11 Courthouse | 591 | 33.93% | 1,090 | 62.57% | 10 | 0.57% | 39 | 2.24% | 12 | 0.69% | 1,747 |
| IC13 City Transit | 296 | 20.86% | 1,079 | 76.04% | 8 | 0.56% | 30 | 2.11% | 6 | 0.42% | 1,423 |
| IC19 Rec Center | 429 | 28.81% | 994 | 66.76% | 11 | 0.74% | 36 | 2.42% | 19 | 1.28% | 1,490 |
| IC20 Senior Center | 504 | 28.97% | 1,179 | 67.76% | 17 | 0.98% | 33 | 1.90% | 7 | 0.40% | 1,741 |
| Campus subtotal | 2,924 | 30.18% | 6,417 | 66.24% | 55 | 0.57% | 206 | 2.13% | 72 | 0.74% | 9,687 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| IC03 Petersen | -14 | -33 | 14 | 58 | 11 | 43 | |||||
| IC05 UI Library | -84 | 177 | 12 | 47 | 20 | 175 | |||||
| IC11 UI Library | -182 | -49 | 16 | 40 | 19 | -159 | |||||
| IC13 Hawks Ridge | -58 | -102 | 19 | 22 | 37 | -74 | |||||
| IC19 Rec Center | -95 | -35 | 15 | 53 | 15 | -48 | |||||
| IC20 Senior Center | -161 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 29 | -75 | |||||
| Campus subtotal | -594 | -38 | 88 | 258 | 131 | -138 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| IC03 Petersen | -1.61% | -3.35% | 0.84% | 3.48% | 0.65% | 1.74% | |||||
| IC05 UI Library | -7.57% | 3.60% | 0.63% | 2.33% | 1.01% | -11.17% | |||||
| IC11 UI Library | -8.14% | 3.07% | 1.07% | 2.74% | 1.27% | -11.20% | |||||
| IC13 Hawks Ridge | -3.06% | -2.97% | 1.46% | 1.78% | 2.79% | -0.09% | |||||
| IC19 Rec Center | -5.65% | -0.25% | 1.06% | 3.75% | 1.08% | -5.40% | |||||
| IC20 Senior Center | -8.33% | 3.42% | 0.77% | 2.38% | 1.76% | -11.75% | |||||
| Campus subtotal | -5.78% | 0.56% | 0.93% | 2.73% | 1.38% | -6.34% | |||||
These were heavy Bernie precincts at caucus time, and note a slight turnout drop in the off-campus precincts and a more than doubling of the third party vote share. (Over 1 percent of the Johnson County vote, more than 900 people, was on the write-in line, up from just 60 votes as recently as 2004.) But the drop was only slight, and the tend was toward the Democrats - or, more accurately, away from Trump.
Interestingly, precinct 3 had one of the lowest Hillary percentages in the city, and actually trended slightly to Trump, but the very similar precinct 5 performed more like 2012 and shifted 11 points toward the Democrats. I have no explanation as to why the two dorm precincts behaved so differently; perhaps a younger reader who knows more about residence life can help.
Precinct 13 has the highest Democratic score here, and also has the highest non-student percentage. As I so often note, it's not undergrads that make Iowa City, or any other college town, a liberal island of blue. Undergrads still tend to follow parental political cues. No, it's grad students and faculty and staff who make college towns liberal, and they live in...
The People's Republic
These three precincts are historically the most Democratic in the county. It barely even makes sense to make a walking list, because you'll get a Democrat at every door.
In 2000, Ralph Nader edged George W. Bush for second place in north side precinct 21, and 21 usually fights with Longfellow neighborhood 18 for bragging rights. Precinct 17, which voted at City High till this year (handicapped accessibility requirements made it impossible to stay) usually has a slightly lower percentage but has the biggest Democratic vote totals.
These areas were also strong for Sanders at caucus time, but not as overwhelmingly as the youth-dominated student precincts. The fundamental divide between Sanders and Clinton was pragmatism vs. realism...
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC17 Our Redeemer | 260 | 13.32% | 1,568 | 80.33% | 40 | 2.05% | 36 | 1.84% | 48 | 2.46% | 1,963 |
| IC18 Longfellow | 191 | 10.71% | 1,471 | 82.46% | 36 | 2.02% | 42 | 2.35% | 44 | 2.47% | 1,791 |
| IC21 Horace Mann | 226 | 13.78% | 1,286 | 78.41% | 40 | 2.44% | 52 | 3.17% | 36 | 2.20% | 1,646 |
| Lefty subtotal | 677 | 12.54% | 4,325 | 80.09% | 116 | 2.15% | 130 | 2.41% | 128 | 2.37% | 5,400 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC17 City High | 363 | 18.34% | 1,541 | 77.87% | 30 | 1.52% | 34 | 1.72% | 11 | 0.56% | 1,983 |
| IC18 Longfellow | 260 | 13.54% | 1,595 | 83.07% | 17 | 0.89% | 35 | 1.82% | 13 | 0.68% | 1,922 |
| IC21 Horace Mann | 335 | 19.15% | 1,340 | 76.62% | 21 | 1.20% | 38 | 2.17% | 15 | 0.86% | 1,752 |
| Lefty subtotal | 958 | 16.93% | 4,476 | 79.12% | 68 | 1.20% | 107 | 1.89% | 39 | 0.69% | 5,657 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| IC17 Our Redeemer | -103 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 37 | -20 | |||||
| IC18 Longfellow | -69 | -124 | 19 | 7 | 31 | -131 | |||||
| IC21 Horace Mann | -109 | -54 | 19 | 14 | 21 | -106 | |||||
| Lefty subtotal | -281 | -151 | 48 | 23 | 89 | -257 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| IC17 Our Redeemer | -5.02% | 2.46% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 1.90% | -7.48% | |||||
| IC18 Longfellow | -2.84% | -0.62% | 1.13% | 0.53% | 1.79% | -2.22% | |||||
| IC21 Horace Mann | -5.37% | 1.80% | 1.24% | 1.00% | 1.34% | -7.17% | |||||
| Lefty subtotal | -4.40% | 0.97% | 0.95% | 0.52% | 1.68% | -5.37% | |||||
...and we see that gain in the general where the trend to Johnson and Stein was lower than in the student neighborhoods. However, the trend to Other was just as strong as with the students, and turnout was also down a little more here.
In precincts 17 and 21, we see both trends away from Trump and toward Hillary. Precinct 18 didn't trend away from Trump as much, but that may be because they were already close to rock bottom for Romney. Despite a slight drop, 18 had the highest Hillary percentage in the county. These are about the biggest Democratic percentages you'll see anywhere in America outside of majority-minority parts of big cities.
The South/Southeast side
Iowa City's southeast side is an odd mix: trailer courts and big non-student working class apartments, interlaced with empty nesters who are not happy about Those People From Chicago. Iowa City, especially this area, has seen a noticeable black in-migration in the past 15 to 20 years, and also has a growing Hispanic population centered in these precincts. Included for demographic sake are two trailer-dominated "rural" precincts, Scott and West Lucas townships.
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC10 Trueblood | 322 | 24.30% | 918 | 69.28% | 14 | 1.06% | 34 | 2.57% | 37 | 2.79% | 1,338 |
| IC12 Grant Wood | 281 | 18.34% | 1,131 | 73.83% | 21 | 1.37% | 56 | 3.66% | 43 | 2.81% | 1,542 |
| IC14 Mark Twain | 204 | 14.32% | 1,108 | 77.75% | 27 | 1.89% | 43 | 3.02% | 43 | 3.02% | 1,431 |
| IC15 Tate | 174 | 18.26% | 685 | 71.88% | 29 | 3.04% | 38 | 3.99% | 27 | 2.83% | 963 |
| SC Scott | 306 | 32.90% | 569 | 61.18% | 11 | 1.18% | 28 | 3.01% | 16 | 1.72% | 937 |
| WL West Lucas | 194 | 30.22% | 405 | 63.08% | 15 | 2.34% | 11 | 1.71% | 17 | 2.65% | 646 |
| south subtotal | 1,481 | 21.60% | 4,816 | 70.23% | 117 | 1.71% | 210 | 3.06% | 183 | 2.67% | 6,857 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC10 City Parks | 312 | 24.66% | 927 | 73.28% | 5 | 0.40% | 16 | 1.26% | 5 | 0.40% | 1,273 |
| IC12 Grant Wood | 314 | 20.52% | 1,184 | 77.39% | 6 | 0.39% | 12 | 0.78% | 14 | 0.92% | 1,538 |
| IC14 Mark Twain | 259 | 17.13% | 1,219 | 80.62% | 13 | 0.86% | 9 | 0.60% | 12 | 0.79% | 1,523 |
| IC15 Tate | 247 | 20.36% | 943 | 77.74% | 8 | 0.66% | 10 | 0.82% | 5 | 0.41% | 1,219 |
| SC Scott | 352 | 35.20% | 630 | 63.00% | 6 | 0.60% | 7 | 0.70% | 5 | 0.50% | 1,007 |
| WL West Lucas | 203 | 28.12% | 511 | 70.78% | 3 | 0.42% | 2 | 0.28% | 3 | 0.42% | 730 |
| south subtotal | 1,687 | 23.14% | 5,414 | 74.27% | 41 | 0.56% | 56 | 0.77% | 44 | 0.60% | 7,290 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| IC10 Trueblood | 10 | -9 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 65 | |||||
| IC12 Grant Wood | -33 | -53 | 15 | 44 | 29 | 4 | |||||
| IC14 Mark Twain | -55 | -111 | 14 | 34 | 31 | -92 | |||||
| IC15 Tate | -73 | -258 | 21 | 28 | 22 | -256 | |||||
| SC Scott | -46 | -61 | 5 | 21 | 11 | -70 | |||||
| WL West Lucas | -9 | -106 | 12 | 9 | 14 | -84 | |||||
| south subtotal | -206 | -598 | 76 | 154 | 139 | -433 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| IC10 Trueblood | -0.36% | -4.00% | 0.66% | 1.30% | 2.40% | 3.64% | |||||
| IC12 Grant Wood | -2.18% | -3.56% | 0.98% | 2.87% | 1.89% | 1.38% | |||||
| IC14 Mark Twain | -2.81% | -2.87% | 1.03% | 2.42% | 2.22% | 0.05% | |||||
| IC15 Tate | -2.10% | -5.86% | 2.38% | 3.16% | 2.42% | 3.76% | |||||
| SC Scott | -2.30% | -1.82% | 0.58% | 2.31% | 1.22% | -0.48% | |||||
| WL West Lucas | 2.10% | -7.69% | 1.92% | 1.44% | 2.23% | 9.79% | |||||
| south subtotal | -1.54% | -4.03% | 1.14% | 2.29% | 2.07% | 2.49% | |||||
Precinct 10 doesn't quite fit here; new owner-occupied homes make this the one precinct in the area with a turnout increase. And you can see that Scott and West Lucas still have some rural voters. But 14 and to a lesser extent precinct 12 and (because of high third party totals including Stein's top score at 3% ) precinct 15 rival even the lefty heartland with their percentages; would have been nice to have gotten more voters out of here.
Most of the turnout drop here is in one precinct, 15. The "redevelopment" of the Rose Oaks apartments (formerly and locally known as Lakeside) uprooted a lot of people. There may also have been a dip in black turnout without Barack Obama on the ballot, but racial voting data isn't available in Iowa.
East Side
Now we're starting to get into "townie" Iowa City. There are apartments here and there but most of these voters are homeowners in long-established neighborhoods. Precinct 6 has large senior complexes. Precinct 22 has some new homes in the Peninsula neighborhood and the only population of students here, at the Mayflower dorm. (I tried really hard to fix that in reprecincting and couldn't.) Precinct 24 is dominated by the relatively new and high income Windsor Ridge development.
These voters are not usually left wing in local elections, but are solidly Democratic at the top of the ticket.
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC01 Lemme | 439 | 22.15% | 1,442 | 72.75% | 10 | 0.50% | 34 | 1.72% | 57 | 2.88% | 1,997 |
| IC06 Mercer | 364 | 19.65% | 1,358 | 73.33% | 23 | 1.24% | 52 | 2.81% | 55 | 2.97% | 1,869 |
| IC16 Mercer | 247 | 14.71% | 1,321 | 78.68% | 27 | 1.61% | 39 | 2.32% | 45 | 2.68% | 1,695 |
| IC22 Shimek | 319 | 21.92% | 1,042 | 71.62% | 15 | 1.03% | 42 | 2.89% | 37 | 2.54% | 1,466 |
| IC23 ICCSD | 372 | 18.60% | 1,488 | 74.40% | 27 | 1.35% | 53 | 2.65% | 60 | 3.00% | 2,015 |
| IC24 St. Patrick | 547 | 26.26% | 1,388 | 66.63% | 18 | 0.86% | 68 | 3.26% | 62 | 2.98% | 2,113 |
| east subtotal | 2,288 | 20.51% | 8,039 | 72.07% | 120 | 1.08% | 288 | 2.58% | 316 | 2.83% | 11,155 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC01 Lemme | 535 | 27.88% | 1,361 | 70.92% | 2 | 0.10% | 15 | 0.78% | 6 | 0.31% | 1,924 |
| IC06 Mercer | 513 | 26.76% | 1,367 | 71.31% | 12 | 0.63% | 15 | 0.78% | 10 | 0.52% | 1,924 |
| IC16 Lucas | 336 | 19.48% | 1,353 | 78.43% | 9 | 0.52% | 18 | 1.04% | 9 | 0.52% | 1,731 |
| IC22 Shimek | 349 | 23.97% | 1,079 | 74.11% | 6 | 0.41% | 15 | 1.03% | 7 | 0.48% | 1,458 |
| IC23 Regina | 525 | 25.61% | 1,486 | 72.49% | 14 | 0.68% | 12 | 0.59% | 13 | 0.63% | 2,054 |
| IC24 St. Patrick | 696 | 38.16% | 1,111 | 60.91% | 3 | 0.16% | 10 | 0.55% | 4 | 0.22% | 1,828 |
| east subtotal | 2,954 | 27.05% | 7,757 | 71.04% | 46 | 0.42% | 85 | 0.78% | 49 | 0.45% | 10,919 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| IC01 Lemme | -96 | 81 | 8 | 19 | 51 | 73 | |||||
| IC06 Mercer | -149 | -9 | 11 | 37 | 45 | -55 | |||||
| IC16 Mercer | -89 | -32 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -36 | |||||
| IC22 Shimek | -30 | -37 | 9 | 27 | 30 | 8 | |||||
| IC23 ICCSD | -153 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 47 | -39 | |||||
| IC24 St. Patrick | -149 | 277 | 15 | 58 | 58 | 285 | |||||
| east subtotal | -666 | 282 | 74 | 203 | 267 | 236 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| IC01 Lemme | -5.73% | 1.83% | 0.40% | 0.93% | 2.56% | -7.56% | |||||
| IC06 Mercer | -7.11% | 2.02% | 0.62% | 2.03% | 2.45% | -9.12% | |||||
| IC16 Mercer | -4.77% | 0.24% | 1.09% | 1.28% | 2.16% | -5.01% | |||||
| IC22 Shimek | -2.05% | -2.49% | 0.62% | 1.86% | 2.06% | 0.45% | |||||
| IC23 ICCSD | -7.01% | 1.91% | 0.67% | 2.06% | 2.37% | -8.92% | |||||
| IC24 St. Patrick | -11.90% | 5.72% | 0.70% | 2.72% | 2.76% | -17.62% | |||||
| east subtotal | -6.54% | 1.03% | 0.65% | 1.80% | 2.38% | -7.57% | |||||
And here we see outright revulsion at Trump, with a 17 point Democratic swing in precinct 24 and 9 point swings in 6 and 23. Most of this seems to be against Trump - note the giant spikes in the Johnson and Other vote, and I'm thinking that's McMullin or that's non-Trump GOP write-ins. Except in precinct 24, where Hillary ran almost 6 points ahead of Obama. The growth also means 24 accounted for most of the east side's turnout increase. (There's also one new subdivision in precinct 1.)
Granted, the "suburban" parts of Iowa City are a lot more Democratic that, say, Dallas County. But this is a Never Trump trend we saw nationally in similar places and which I expected, before Election Night, would be the big story of 2016.
West Side
There's a lot of similarity to the east side here, with Kennedy Parkway in precinct 7 taking the place of Windsor Ridge and Oaknoll in precinct 2 more than taking the place of the senior complexes in precinct 6. Precinct 4 is mostly the doctor/professor dominated very old neighborhood, Manville Heights; the enclaved speed trap University Heights has a similar feel.
But there's a few wild cards here. Precinct 4 also has a chunk of Frat Row, and there's a low income area split between 7 and 9 that includes a large and politically active Sudanese community. These are the voters I saw bringing their passports with them to vote as if to assert "I AM an American."
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC02 Horn | 349 | 20.70% | 1,208 | 71.65% | 23 | 1.36% | 55 | 3.26% | 51 | 3.02% | 1,707 |
| IC04 Art | 273 | 16.28% | 1,309 | 78.06% | 15 | 0.89% | 59 | 3.52% | 21 | 1.25% | 1,688 |
| IC07 West High | 294 | 20.99% | 1,016 | 72.52% | 9 | 0.64% | 48 | 3.43% | 34 | 2.43% | 1,413 |
| IC08 Weber | 437 | 24.69% | 1,219 | 68.87% | 11 | 0.62% | 49 | 2.77% | 54 | 3.05% | 1,782 |
| IC09 Hall of Fame | 306 | 18.75% | 1,188 | 72.79% | 25 | 1.53% | 52 | 3.19% | 61 | 3.74% | 1,642 |
| UH University Heights | 142 | 19.86% | 527 | 73.71% | 4 | 0.56% | 23 | 3.22% | 19 | 2.66% | 720 |
| West Subtotal | 1,801 | 20.12% | 6,467 | 72.24% | 87 | 0.97% | 286 | 3.19% | 240 | 2.68% | 8,952 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| IC02 Horn | 531 | 29.57% | 1,228 | 68.37% | 6 | 0.33% | 18 | 1.00% | 13 | 0.72% | 1,800 |
| IC04 Lincoln | 345 | 23.03% | 1,130 | 75.43% | 7 | 0.47% | 9 | 0.60% | 7 | 0.47% | 1,499 |
| IC07 West High | 347 | 27.92% | 872 | 70.15% | 6 | 0.48% | 10 | 0.80% | 8 | 0.64% | 1,248 |
| IC08 Weber School | 612 | 35.79% | 1,085 | 63.45% | 2 | 0.12% | 7 | 0.41% | 4 | 0.23% | 1,715 |
| IC09 Hall of Fame | 430 | 25.10% | 1,246 | 72.74% | 7 | 0.41% | 21 | 1.23% | 9 | 0.53% | 1,720 |
| UH University Heights | 233 | 30.14% | 531 | 68.69% | 2 | 0.26% | 4 | 0.52% | 3 | 0.39% | 774 |
| West Subtotal | 2,498 | 28.53% | 6,092 | 69.58% | 30 | 0.34% | 69 | 0.79% | 44 | 0.50% | 8,756 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| IC02 Horn | -182 | -20 | 17 | 37 | 38 | -93 | |||||
| IC04 Art | -72 | 179 | 8 | 50 | 14 | 189 | |||||
| IC07 West High | -53 | 144 | 3 | 38 | 26 | 165 | |||||
| IC08 Weber | -175 | 134 | 9 | 42 | 50 | 67 | |||||
| IC09 Hall of Fame | -124 | -58 | 18 | 31 | 52 | -78 | |||||
| UH University Heights | -91 | -4 | 2 | 19 | 16 | -54 | |||||
| West Subtotal | -697 | 375 | 57 | 217 | 196 | 196 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| IC02 Horn | -8.87% | 3.27% | 1.03% | 2.26% | 2.30% | -12.14% | |||||
| IC04 Art | -6.75% | 2.62% | 0.43% | 2.92% | 0.78% | -9.37% | |||||
| IC07 West High | -6.93% | 2.37% | 0.16% | 2.62% | 1.78% | -9.30% | |||||
| IC08 Weber | -11.10% | 5.42% | 0.50% | 2.36% | 2.82% | -16.52% | |||||
| IC09 Hall of Fame | -6.35% | 0.06% | 1.12% | 1.96% | 3.21% | -6.41% | |||||
| UH University Heights | -10.28% | 5.01% | 0.30% | 2.70% | 2.27% | -15.30% | |||||
| West Subtotal | -8.41% | 2.67% | 0.63% | 2.41% | 2.18% | -11.08% | |||||
The west side shifted even more Democratic than the east - 11 points overall including a whopping 16.5% in precinct 8. The difference seems to be more of a trend toward Hillary, on top of the anti-Trump shift. But again, big spikes for Johnson, Other, and also Stein here.
Big surprise here: the turnout drop in precinct 2, despite heavy turnout civically engaged Oaknoll (site of the one successful satellite caucus in the state) opening a large new wing since 2012. I can't account for that; most of the student apartments on West Benton are in precinct 13, not 2. (Having already cut the turf, I see now that precinct 13 fits better here than it did in the student precincts.)
Coralville
Demographically there's really two Coralvilles. South Coralville (precinct 1, 4, and 5) is mostly older homes and apartments. North Coralville (precincts 2, 6, 7 and the demographically similar Penn Township) has bigger and newer homes and more money. Precinct 3 doesn't quite fit either; it's dominated by the Coral Court apartment complex and the Western Hills trailer court (where registration has been in decline).
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| CV01 Library | 304 | 19.86% | 1,095 | 71.52% | 22 | 1.44% | 65 | 4.25% | 45 | 2.92% | 1,541 |
| CV02 Brown Deer | 459 | 29.18% | 990 | 62.94% | 13 | 0.83% | 53 | 3.37% | 58 | 3.66% | 1,586 |
| CV03 Hygienic Lab | 272 | 28.39% | 615 | 64.20% | 8 | 0.84% | 33 | 3.44% | 30 | 3.11% | 966 |
| CV04 City Hall | 208 | 18.31% | 838 | 73.77% | 14 | 1.23% | 39 | 3.43% | 37 | 3.23% | 1,145 |
| CV05 NW Jr High | 262 | 20.58% | 926 | 72.74% | 9 | 0.71% | 41 | 3.22% | 35 | 2.73% | 1,280 |
| CV06 Wickham | 576 | 30.72% | 1,181 | 62.99% | 9 | 0.48% | 66 | 3.52% | 43 | 2.28% | 1,887 |
| CV07 North Ridge | 371 | 23.74% | 1,072 | 68.59% | 18 | 1.15% | 45 | 2.88% | 57 | 3.65% | 1,582 |
| PN Penn Twp | 596 | 30.94% | 1,210 | 62.82% | 12 | 0.62% | 67 | 3.48% | 41 | 2.13% | 1,948 |
| Coralville subtotal | 3,048 | 25.54% | 7,927 | 66.42% | 105 | 0.88% | 409 | 3.43% | 346 | 2.90% | 11,935 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| CV01 Central | 344 | 24.01% | 1,031 | 71.95% | 10 | 0.70% | 36 | 2.51% | 12 | 0.84% | 1,442 |
| CV02 Grant Wood AEA | 587 | 36.69% | 972 | 60.75% | 8 | 0.50% | 21 | 1.31% | 12 | 0.75% | 1,602 |
| CV03 Hygienic Lab | 287 | 31.82% | 604 | 66.96% | 0 | 0.00% | 6 | 0.67% | 5 | 0.55% | 902 |
| CV04 Rec Center | 265 | 20.35% | 996 | 76.50% | 8 | 0.61% | 16 | 1.23% | 17 | 1.31% | 1,309 |
| CV05 NW Jr High | 344 | 25.29% | 977 | 71.84% | 10 | 0.74% | 21 | 1.54% | 8 | 0.59% | 1,363 |
| CV06 Wickham | 752 | 43.62% | 957 | 55.51% | 4 | 0.23% | 7 | 0.41% | 4 | 0.23% | 1,724 |
| CV07 Northridge | 459 | 28.72% | 1,102 | 68.96% | 7 | 0.44% | 21 | 1.31% | 9 | 0.56% | 1,600 |
| PN Penn Twp | 715 | 36.46% | 1,223 | 62.37% | 5 | 0.25% | 13 | 0.66% | 5 | 0.25% | 1,965 |
| Coralville subtotal | 3,753 | 31.52% | 7,862 | 66.03% | 52 | 0.44% | 141 | 1.18% | 72 | 0.60% | 11,907 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| CV01 Library | -40 | 64 | 12 | 29 | 33 | 99 | |||||
| CV02 Brown Deer | -128 | 18 | 5 | 32 | 46 | -16 | |||||
| CV03 Hygienic Lab | -15 | 11 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 64 | |||||
| CV04 City Hall | -57 | -158 | 6 | 23 | 20 | -164 | |||||
| CV05 NW Jr High | -82 | -51 | -1 | 20 | 27 | -83 | |||||
| CV06 Wickham | -176 | 224 | 5 | 59 | 39 | 163 | |||||
| CV07 North Ridge | -88 | -30 | 11 | 24 | 48 | -18 | |||||
| PN Penn Twp | -119 | -13 | 7 | 54 | 36 | -17 | |||||
| Coralville subtotal | -705 | 65 | 53 | 268 | 274 | 28 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| CV01 Library | -4.15% | -0.43% | 0.74% | 1.73% | 2.10% | -3.72% | |||||
| CV02 Brown Deer | -7.51% | 2.19% | 0.33% | 2.06% | 2.94% | -9.69% | |||||
| CV03 Hygienic Lab | -3.43% | -2.77% | 0.84% | 2.78% | 2.58% | -0.66% | |||||
| CV04 City Hall | -2.04% | -2.73% | 0.62% | 2.20% | 1.95% | 0.69% | |||||
| CV05 NW Jr High | -4.71% | 0.90% | -0.03% | 1.68% | 2.16% | -5.62% | |||||
| CV06 Wickham | -12.90% | 7.48% | 0.25% | 3.11% | 2.06% | -20.38% | |||||
| CV07 North Ridge | -4.99% | -0.38% | 0.71% | 1.56% | 3.08% | -4.61% | |||||
| PN Penn Twp | -5.52% | 0.46% | 0.37% | 2.82% | 1.87% | -5.97% | |||||
| Coralville subtotal | -5.98% | 0.39% | 0.44% | 2.24% | 2.29% | -6.37% | |||||
We get a very mixed set of data from Coralville. Turnout was almost identical but it was a matter of counter-trends. Overall Hillary's percentage narrowly tops Obama's while Trump drops six points.
I'd say that shift was toward the third parties... but it isn't, because it isn't consistent across precincts. The big story here is precinct 6 with a 7.5% Hillary gain that more than accounts for her area-wide gain, and a massive 20 point shift to the Democrats.
North Liberty and Tiffin
This is some of the fastest growing turf in the state and it was the scene of the one significantly contested local race, in open House District 77 where North Liberty mayor Amy Nielsen beat a strong for Johnson County GOP candidate, former Tiffin mayor Royce Phillips.
North Liberty isn't any more of a monolith than Coralville is, yet we get an even more precise example of trends counter-balancing.
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| CC Tiffin | 617 | 37.51% | 898 | 54.59% | 20 | 1.22% | 76 | 4.62% | 34 | 2.07% | 1,654 |
| NL01 Rec Center | 447 | 30.79% | 873 | 60.12% | 11 | 0.76% | 62 | 4.27% | 59 | 4.06% | 1,458 |
| NL02 Garner | 446 | 31.45% | 847 | 59.73% | 7 | 0.49% | 72 | 5.08% | 46 | 3.24% | 1,430 |
| NL03 South Slope | 618 | 32.79% | 1,056 | 56.02% | 17 | 0.90% | 122 | 6.47% | 72 | 3.82% | 1,896 |
| NL04 North Central | 352 | 27.80% | 812 | 64.14% | 14 | 1.11% | 50 | 3.95% | 38 | 3.00% | 1,279 |
| NL05 Rec Center | 337 | 27.85% | 762 | 62.98% | 13 | 1.07% | 59 | 4.88% | 39 | 3.22% | 1,216 |
| NL06-MD UICCU | 867 | 37.00% | 1,258 | 53.69% | 22 | 0.94% | 128 | 5.46% | 68 | 2.90% | 2,351 |
| NL/Tiffin subtotal | 3,684 | 32.65% | 6,506 | 57.66% | 104 | 0.92% | 569 | 5.04% | 356 | 3.15% | 11,284 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| CC Tiffin | 477 | 36.47% | 804 | 61.47% | 3 | 0.23% | 17 | 1.30% | 7 | 0.54% | 1,313 |
| NL01 NL Comm Center | 502 | 37.46% | 821 | 61.27% | 0 | 0.00% | 11 | 0.82% | 6 | 0.45% | 1,341 |
| NL02 Garner | 497 | 36.54% | 849 | 62.43% | 2 | 0.15% | 7 | 0.51% | 5 | 0.37% | 1,366 |
| NL03 South Slope | 603 | 39.62% | 890 | 58.48% | 5 | 0.33% | 20 | 1.31% | 4 | 0.26% | 1,524 |
| NL04 North Central | 359 | 27.94% | 904 | 70.35% | 1 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.62% | 13 | 1.01% | 1,292 |
| NL05 NL Comm Center | 459 | 34.85% | 837 | 63.55% | 1 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.91% | 8 | 0.61% | 1,320 |
| NL06-MD North Bend | 787 | 40.73% | 1,102 | 57.04% | 5 | 0.26% | 28 | 1.45% | 10 | 0.52% | 1,934 |
| NL/Tiffin subtotal | 3,684 | 36.51% | 6,207 | 61.52% | 17 | 0.17% | 103 | 1.02% | 53 | 0.53% | 10,090 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| CC Tiffin | 140 | 94 | 17 | 59 | 27 | 341 | |||||
| NL01 Rec Center | -55 | 52 | 11 | 51 | 53 | 117 | |||||
| NL02 Garner | -51 | -2 | 5 | 65 | 41 | 64 | |||||
| NL03 South Slope | 15 | 166 | 12 | 102 | 68 | 372 | |||||
| NL04 North Central | -7 | -92 | 13 | 42 | 25 | -13 | |||||
| NL05 Rec Center | -122 | -75 | 12 | 47 | 31 | -104 | |||||
| NL06-MD UICCU | 80 | 156 | 17 | 100 | 58 | 417 | |||||
| NL/Tiffin subtotal | 0 | 299 | 87 | 466 | 303 | 1,194 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| CC Tiffin | 1.04% | -6.88% | 0.99% | 3.32% | 1.53% | 7.92% | |||||
| NL01 Rec Center | -6.68% | -1.14% | 0.76% | 3.45% | 3.62% | -5.53% | |||||
| NL02 Garner | -5.09% | -2.69% | 0.35% | 4.56% | 2.88% | -2.40% | |||||
| NL03 South Slope | -6.83% | -2.45% | 0.57% | 5.16% | 3.56% | -4.38% | |||||
| NL04 North Central | -0.13% | -6.21% | 1.03% | 3.33% | 1.99% | 6.08% | |||||
| NL05 Rec Center | -7.00% | -0.58% | 1.00% | 3.96% | 2.62% | -6.42% | |||||
| NL06-MD UICCU | -3.73% | -3.35% | 0.68% | 4.01% | 2.38% | -0.38% | |||||
| NL/Tiffin subtotal | -3.86% | -3.86% | 0.75% | 4.02% | 2.63% | 0.00% | |||||
I thought I made a spreadsheet error so I checked again and yes, Trump and Clinton's losses compared to Romney and Obama exactly balanced out in North Liberty and Tiffin for zero net percentage change. With both major party candidates losing nearly four points, that of course means a massive jump in third party votes. That's not entirely a shock; high growth areas tend to be less politically established and less rooted to tradition. North Liberty 3 topped 11 percent 3rd party. (Tangent: the four precincts with the highest non-two party vote were all demographically different: high income high growth North Liberty 3, student precinct Iowa City 19, southeast side Iowa City 15, and small town Hills.)
Tiffin, which is a couple decades closer to its rural roots than North Liberty, trended away from Clinton. So did trailer court dominated North Liberty 4. That was counter-balanced by anti-Trump trends in precincts 1 and 5 which are slightly older development, though nothing's very old out here. Precinct 5 actually saw a drop in total voters. That area is built out, perhaps indicating that the overall North Liberty turnout increase was caused more by growth than by increased interest.
The Greater Solon Metropolitan Area
Rural Johnson County doesn't divide neatly so I split it into two.
Even the most casual local observers have seen a GOP trend in northeast Johnson County, and the sage of Solon Paul Deaton has written about it extensively. Most of this turf is in Republican Bobby Kaufmann's legislative district; he's worked this area hard and went without opposition this cycle.
Demographically most of this is high growth turf including Swisher and Shueyville (in Nielsen's district, not Kaufmann's) which are oriented as much toward Cedar Rapids as Iowa City. Outside the town there are a lot of big houses with couples commuting in opposite directions.
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| BG Big Grove | 575 | 48.94% | 529 | 45.02% | 3 | 0.26% | 42 | 3.57% | 26 | 2.21% | 1,187 |
| CE Cedar | 191 | 53.35% | 144 | 40.22% | 1 | 0.28% | 10 | 2.79% | 12 | 3.35% | 358 |
| GR Graham | 122 | 37.65% | 185 | 57.10% | 3 | 0.93% | 8 | 2.47% | 6 | 1.85% | 325 |
| JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville | 813 | 51.10% | 676 | 42.49% | 10 | 0.63% | 59 | 3.71% | 33 | 2.07% | 1,594 |
| JW Jefferson W.-Swisher | 745 | 51.13% | 639 | 43.86% | 6 | 0.41% | 31 | 2.13% | 36 | 2.47% | 1,464 |
| NP Newport | 580 | 36.64% | 898 | 56.73% | 14 | 0.88% | 41 | 2.59% | 50 | 3.16% | 1,595 |
| SO Solon city | 612 | 43.87% | 688 | 49.32% | 11 | 0.79% | 51 | 3.66% | 33 | 2.37% | 1,410 |
| Metro Solon subtotal | 3,638 | 45.86% | 3,759 | 47.38% | 48 | 0.61% | 242 | 3.05% | 196 | 2.47% | 7,933 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| BG Big Grove | 551 | 49.33% | 555 | 49.69% | 1 | 0.09% | 7 | 0.63% | 3 | 0.27% | 1,123 |
| CE Cedar | 151 | 42.78% | 198 | 56.09% | 0 | 0.00% | 2 | 0.57% | 2 | 0.57% | 353 |
| GR Graham | 107 | 35.43% | 187 | 61.92% | 2 | 0.66% | 2 | 0.66% | 4 | 1.32% | 302 |
| JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville | 841 | 53.81% | 699 | 44.72% | 4 | 0.26% | 10 | 0.64% | 9 | 0.58% | 1,568 |
| JW Jefferson W.-Swisher | 702 | 48.58% | 735 | 50.87% | 0 | 0.00% | 6 | 0.42% | 2 | 0.14% | 1,451 |
| NP Newport | 646 | 40.38% | 936 | 58.50% | 1 | 0.06% | 10 | 0.63% | 7 | 0.44% | 1,603 |
| SO Solon city | 447 | 37.91% | 715 | 60.64% | 4 | 0.34% | 7 | 0.59% | 6 | 0.51% | 1,184 |
| Metro Solon subtotal | 3,445 | 45.42% | 4,025 | 53.07% | 12 | 0.16% | 44 | 0.58% | 33 | 0.44% | 7,584 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| BG Big Grove | 24 | -26 | 2 | 35 | 23 | 64 | |||||
| CE Cedar | 40 | -54 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | |||||
| GR Graham | 15 | -2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 23 | |||||
| JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville | -28 | -23 | 6 | 49 | 24 | 26 | |||||
| JW Jefferson W.-Swisher | 43 | -96 | 6 | 25 | 34 | 13 | |||||
| NP Newport | -66 | -38 | 13 | 31 | 43 | -8 | |||||
| SO Solon city | 165 | -27 | 7 | 44 | 27 | 226 | |||||
| Metro Solon subtotal | 193 | -266 | 36 | 198 | 163 | 349 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| BG Big Grove | -0.39% | -4.67% | 0.17% | 2.95% | 1.94% | 4.27% | |||||
| CE Cedar | 10.58% | -15.87% | 0.28% | 2.23% | 2.79% | 26.44% | |||||
| GR Graham | 2.22% | -4.82% | 0.26% | 1.81% | 0.53% | 7.05% | |||||
| JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville | -2.71% | -2.23% | 0.37% | 3.07% | 1.50% | -0.47% | |||||
| JW Jefferson W.-Swisher | 2.55% | -7.01% | 0.41% | 1.71% | 2.33% | 9.56% | |||||
| NP Newport | -3.74% | -1.77% | 0.82% | 1.97% | 2.72% | -1.96% | |||||
| SO Solon city | 5.96% | -11.33% | 0.45% | 3.06% | 1.86% | 17.28% | |||||
| Metro Solon subtotal | 0.43% | -5.69% | 0.45% | 2.47% | 2.04% | 6.12% | |||||
Here for the first time we see actual Trump wins. Romney carried only Shueyville; Trump adds Swisher, Big Grove (the rural area immediately surrounding Solon city) and rural Cedar Township (the greater metropolitan Sutliff area), and holds Hillary under 50% in Solon.
Demographic question I can't figure out: Cedar used to vote as Democratic as the very similar Graham Township (greater metropolitan Morse). Graham has stayed blue while Cedar has turned red in a big way with a 26 point shift to Trump.
And Graham seems to be a major anomaly here. These areas seem to be far enough out that the suburban Never Trump trend is overwhelmed by the exurban and rural Never Hillary tend.
Turnout is up, more due to growth than interest. The exception is Newport which may actually be a rare case where a hot legislative race in 2012 got people out more than president did. Newport is also closer to Iowa City and sees a small gain in Democratic margin
Rural Rural Johnson County
The North Corridor precincts we just looked at are mostly suburban, but the final chunk of the county is where the farms and true small towns are. And as elsewhere in Iowa and the nation, the Democrats got our asses handed to us here.
| 2016 | Trump | Clinton | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| FR Lone Tree area | 519 | 49.10% | 465 | 43.99% | 10 | 0.95% | 46 | 4.35% | 17 | 1.61% | 1,063 |
| HD Hardin (Cosgrove) | 171 | 49.57% | 153 | 44.35% | 0 | 0.00% | 13 | 3.77% | 8 | 2.32% | 348 |
| HS Hills city | 165 | 35.48% | 256 | 55.05% | 5 | 1.08% | 27 | 5.81% | 12 | 2.58% | 469 |
| LB rural Hills | 175 | 45.10% | 197 | 50.77% | 3 | 0.77% | 10 | 2.58% | 3 | 0.77% | 393 |
| OX Oxford | 396 | 47.65% | 373 | 44.89% | 11 | 1.32% | 33 | 3.97% | 18 | 2.17% | 839 |
| SN Sharon | 201 | 55.83% | 139 | 38.61% | 1 | 0.28% | 5 | 1.39% | 14 | 3.89% | 364 |
| UN Union | 189 | 44.47% | 226 | 53.18% | 3 | 0.71% | 6 | 1.41% | 1 | 0.24% | 430 |
| WS Washington | 281 | 56.43% | 173 | 34.74% | 5 | 1.00% | 20 | 4.02% | 19 | 3.82% | 505 |
| Rural Rural subtotal | 2,097 | 47.54% | 1,982 | 44.93% | 38 | 0.86% | 160 | 3.63% | 92 | 2.09% | 4,411 |
| 2012 | Romney | Obama | Stein | Johnson | Other | Total Votes | |||||
| FR Lone Tree area | 399 | 40.02% | 582 | 58.38% | 4 | 0.40% | 9 | 0.90% | 3 | 0.30% | 1,001 |
| HD Hardin (Cosgrove) | 145 | 44.75% | 173 | 53.40% | 2 | 0.62% | 2 | 0.62% | 2 | 0.62% | 329 |
| HS Hills city | 140 | 31.11% | 294 | 65.33% | 2 | 0.44% | 11 | 2.44% | 3 | 0.67% | 452 |
| LB rural Hills | 157 | 40.89% | 223 | 58.07% | 0 | 0.00% | 2 | 0.52% | 2 | 0.52% | 387 |
| OX Oxford | 304 | 35.56% | 539 | 63.04% | 1 | 0.12% | 5 | 0.58% | 6 | 0.70% | 857 |
| SN Sharon | 208 | 57.14% | 150 | 41.21% | 2 | 0.55% | 2 | 0.55% | 2 | 0.55% | 367 |
| UN Union | 180 | 41.57% | 248 | 57.27% | 1 | 0.23% | 2 | 0.46% | 2 | 0.46% | 436 |
| WS Washington | 262 | 54.70% | 207 | 43.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 2 | 0.42% | 8 | 1.67% | 480 |
| Rural Rural subtotal | 1,795 | 41.66% | 2,416 | 56.07% | 12 | 0.28% | 35 | 0.81% | 28 | 0.65% | 4,309 |
| 2016 vs 2012 votes | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Total Votes | |||||
| FR Lone Tree area | 120 | -117 | 6 | 37 | 14 | 62 | |||||
| HD Hardin (Cosgrove) | 26 | -20 | -2 | 11 | 6 | 19 | |||||
| HS Hills city | 25 | -38 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 17 | |||||
| LB rural Hills | 18 | -26 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 6 | |||||
| OX Oxford | 92 | -166 | 10 | 28 | 12 | -18 | |||||
| SN Sharon | -7 | -11 | -1 | 3 | 12 | -3 | |||||
| UN Union | 9 | -22 | 2 | 4 | -1 | -6 | |||||
| WS Washington | 19 | -34 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 25 | |||||
| Rural Rural subtotal | 302 | -434 | 26 | 125 | 64 | 102 | |||||
| 2016 vs 2012 % | Trump vs Romney | Clinton vs Obama | Stein 16 vs 12 | Johnson 16 vs 12 | Other 16 Vs 12 | Net R Swing | |||||
| FR Lone Tree area | 9.08% | -14.38% | 0.54% | 3.45% | 1.31% | 23.46% | |||||
| HD Hardin (Cosgrove) | 4.81% | -9.05% | -0.62% | 3.15% | 1.70% | 13.86% | |||||
| HS Hills city | 4.37% | -10.28% | 0.63% | 3.36% | 1.91% | 14.65% | |||||
| LB rural Hills | 4.22% | -7.30% | 0.77% | 2.06% | 0.25% | 11.52% | |||||
| OX Oxford | 12.10% | -18.16% | 1.21% | 3.39% | 1.46% | 30.25% | |||||
| SN Sharon | -1.31% | -2.60% | -0.27% | 0.84% | 3.34% | 1.29% | |||||
| UN Union | 2.90% | -4.10% | 0.47% | 0.95% | -0.23% | 7.00% | |||||
| WS Washington | 1.73% | -8.48% | 1.00% | 3.60% | 2.15% | 10.20% | |||||
| Rural Rural subtotal | 5.88% | -11.14% | 0.58% | 2.82% | 1.44% | 17.02% | |||||
Sharon and Washington townships have always voted like pieces of GOP leaning Washington County that were accidentally surveyed into the wrong county. Sharon stays almost the same but Washington sees a 8.5 point shift sway from the Democrats to third parties. Most of this massive 17 point shift across rural rural Johnson County was anti-Clinton. Amy Nielsen didn't see similar drops in her open legislative race. The third parties jumped from very low levels to numbers approaching the rest of the county.
Trump adds Cosgrove and, with shifts of Howard County proportions, Oxford and Lone Tree to the red column. The Hills area, so ancestrally Democratic that even I won it in my Some Dude legislative race 20 years ago, stays Democratic but sees a red shift that would have seemed big back when we were looking at cities. Overall, this adds up to a Trump win in this part of the county. Turnout was up in this low-growth area, with most of the increase coming from Lone Tree.
Democrats in every part of Iowa and every part of the nation have questions about how to proceed into the Trump Era. For Johnson County, the rural question is less pressing simply because of the nature of the county. The numbers in those places are relatively small. The real issue for local Democrats is how to gain back those third party votes - both on the Never Hillary Left and the Never Trump center right - while holding on to the upper income suburban voters who defected from Trump to Clinton.
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