UIowa Poll shows Don't Know, Romney Leading GOP

UIowa Poll shows Don't Know, Romney Leading GOP

A new University of Iowa poll shows "don't know" leading Iowa Republicans with 35 percent.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in first place among actual candidates with 22 percent, followed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 10 percent.  Arizona Senator John McCain, a one-time front-runner, is at 2 percent.  Even Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have more support from Iowa Republicans.

"Republicans appear to be punishing both Giuliani and McCain for their unwillingness to compete in the Aug. 11 Straw Poll," said political science professor David Redlawsk in a press release announcing the results.  Complete results here.

"For Giuliani I don't think the game's over, though he has dropped a lot and is well behind Romney," Redlawsk told Iowa Independent. "For McCain it is a different story -- I am fairly confident he's done in Iowa.  Iowa Republicans never really liked him very much, and now they have more reason to go elsewhere. But for any Republican who isn't Romney, it is currently an uphill road."

Redlawsk

"While good old Don't Know remains the leader by quite a lot, Romney is working on developing a sense of inevitability," said Redlawsk.  "If he manages to take the straw poll by a large enough margin, he'll make himself even stronger. However, there is still a long time to go and a lot of uncommitted caucus goers -- the race is not settled by any means." 

Several candidates are on the bubble of survival and Saturday's straw poll may eliminate some.  Redlawsk says the most likely victim is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.  "I think Huckabee is out" after the straw poll, he said.  "While we see some support for (Kansas Senator Sam) Brownback and for (Colorado Congressman Tom) Tancredo among caucus goers, we get close to no mentions of Huckabee at all." 

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who has not yet officially entered the race, showed 5 percent support from Iowa Republicans.  That puts him third among Republican candidates, but trailing undecided and Obama.  "I think a few folks are looking forward to Fred Thompson's entry -- and some of them may currently be in the 'don't know' group," said Redlawsk. "Historically he has not been a dynamic campaigner, he'll be getting in late, and he hasn't yet developed a compelling message. But our polling does show that Republicans are willing -- and some are anxious -- to consider alternatives to the existing slate." 

While Texas Rep. Ron Paul runs away with most self-selected, unscientific polls, Redlawsk's research shows Paul with 2.4 percent support.  Redlawsk called Paul's support very small and very intense.  "Paul is the Republican's Kucinich," he said.

"I can't see him ever getting out of the race, but in the end he won't draw more than a relatively small fringe." said Redlawsk.  "Republican caucus goers are not that interested in driving off a cliff.  Electability still matters, which is why Romney, who is seen by Republicans as pretty electable, is getting so much traction even among conservative Republicans."

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads with 30 percent, followed by Don't Know at 23, Obama with 20, and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 16.  The margin of error was 4.6 percent for Democrats and 5.2 percent for Republicans.