Thursday, September 27, 2007

Strategic Vision Poll: Iowa Dems Close

Strategic Vision Poll: Iowa Dems Close

OK, here's the numbers:
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 22%
Barack Obama 21%
Bill Richardson 13%
Joseph Biden 4%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 14%

Anybody's ball game in Iowa, but not reflective of the national trend. Biden is officially trowing everything he's got at Iowa, and so to a lesser extent is Edwards.

Here's the catch: the Anyone But Hillary vote is split dead even: a third Edwards, a third Obama, a third rest of the field. If that dynamic keeps up, Clinton gets undtoppable.

GOP side:
Mitt Romney 30%
Rudy Giuliani 17%
Fred Thompson 13%
Mike Huckabee 8%
John McCain 6%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Ron Paul 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided 13%

I don't see how The Mitt doesn't win Iowa. Rudy has to throw enough at us to hold on to second. Fred's flavor of the week flower will fade. Huckabee might have a shot at top three is backers of the also-rans move to him, but the blood is so bad between him and Brownback (who's toast) that I don't see it happening. Remember, Republicans don't deal with the viability and second choice stuff, they just vote.

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