Johnson County Development: Three Front War; Statewide Ripple Effect in `06?

Johnson County Development: Three Front War

Statewide Ripple Effect in `06?

It took me a few years in local politics to figure it out, but development fights are the nastiest, because that's where the money is.

Last night the planets aligned to give us three simultaneous battles:

In the county, the fight over expanding Newport Road, complete with "Don't Tread On Me" flags and the celebrity clout of Mary ("Hi, I'm Kirk's wife") Ferentz

The high/low drama of the North Liberty City Council and its "who's the mayor" fight. One point the press gets wrong: whether or not the election had been challenged, James Wozniak would NOT have been serving on the council at last night's meeting. The mayor is vacant so the mayor-elect would have taken office right away. And since mayor-maybe-elect David Franker was an appointed council member, he was immediately replaced by the top vote getter Gerry Kuhl. But Rob Gardiner's council term runs through the end of the year, even though he was maybe-defeated.

The Iowa City Wal-Mart fight, which goes curiously unreported in today's Press-Citizen.

Here's how this matters outside Johnson County: attitudes toward development are the traditional fault lines that normally divide Johnson County politics. The typical coalitions are: on the right, rural voters, developers, business conservatives, and for lack of a better term old-line families. (The religious right is so weak here that the last time they ran a candidate, in 1994, she couldn't even win the GOP primary.) On the left it's Iowa City, environmentalists, Democratic activists, University types.

These battles are fought out in city council elections and Democratic primaries.

This dynamic leads to very, very high turnout in Johnson County. In 2004 we had the highest Democratic primary turnout in the state. Not just in percentage: in raw numbers. Johnson 8,675, Polk 5,290. Hot sheriff's race.

So Johnson County has an impact in statewide primaries that's disproportionate even considering our two to one Democratic registration. Does that help the most liberal candidate? Not necessarily; because the primary is seen as the "real election" for courthouse jobs, crossover voting is high. But that gets blunted somewhat because conservative "Democrats" frequently under-vote. Here's a case in point: in the 1998 Democratic primary, which was razor-close statewide, Johnson County saw 1000 more votes for county recorder than for governor.

The Johnson County conservatives could care less who's governor; they want the local positions because zoning is where the money is. The left is at a disadvantage because they care more about presidents and legislators, and because the primary falls in early June when the University is either out of session or just getting back for summer session.

Hard to tell yet how the dynamic plays out for `06. The premier Johnson County race seems to be between Janet Lyness (site's still a placeholder) and Nick Maybanks for the vacant county attorney's post, which has been uncontested since 1978 and may not break along the traditional "brown vs. green" lines.

Does crossover conservative turnout help Blouin? Does disproportionate rural voting help Judge? Does high turnout in the People's Republic help Fallon? Stay tuned.