Good Cop, Bad Cop on Iowa Election Bills

On the surface, Secretary Paul Pate's "Voter Integrity" bill is a deceptively mild voter ID bill. But when paired with other proposals, it would allow voters to use only a very narrow set of documents. One proposal sponsored by 10 House Republicans would end election day registration (EDR) in Iowa, and in the process limit the types of IDs that could be used under Pate's bill.

A draft of Pate's bill, which has still not been officially filed or released 26 days after his roll-out press conference (UPDATE: now posted), first surfaced early this morning at Bleeding Heartland, along with two other, less controversial bills from his office.

The core of the bill specified that the acceptable voter IDs are:

• An Iowa (only) license or non-driver ID. (These are also issued by DOT and are functionally the same. From here on out when I say "license" I also mean "non-driver ID");
• a passport;
• a military or veteran's ID;
• a "voter acknowledgement card" which is a fancy name for the current voter cards mailed to voters whenever they register or make a change; or
• a "voter verification card" sent by Pate's office to voters who do not appear to have an Iowa license or non-driver ID.

There are options for "attestors" like we have under the current EDR law, but those are limited and take more time - both for you AND the person behind you in line. For 2018 only there's a form to fill out if you don't have ID with you. Full effect would be 1/1/19. Worst case is a provisional ballot, but under federal law anybody can do that. Doesn't mean it counts. All this is before amendments and does not take into account other bills.

Reading further you see some language referencing another code section - that qualifier is very important - that appears to indicate that IDs that would be accepted under Iowa's current election day registration law would also be accepted. These include out-of-state driver's licenses or non-driver IDs, employer IDs, and school IDs - though there's a big catch: these IDs have to include expiration dates, which University of Iowa student IDs do NOT include. (Under current law, EDR voters also have to provide proof of address, usually with a lease or utility bill).

So there's a few more options, as long as the EDR law is in effect.

House File 150, with 10 House GOP sponsors, would repeal the EDR law passed in 2007 and in effect since 2008. From my perspective, this is worse than the ID law itself. In Johnson County in 2016, 5212 voters used this option on election day and in the eight early voting days after the pre-registration deadline.

These are voters who are already showing ID and providing proof of address. It's a popular law that works very well. Of these 5200 new voters, just a few dozen addresses had problems post-election, and those were postal problems, not fraud problems: either people who were right in the middle of a move or who left off their apartment numbers or post offices boxes. (Certain Iowa City mail routes in the densely populated student areas are very picky about apartments, and some of our small towns, especially Tiffin, are equally fussy about PO Boxes.)

We should have sent it Special D.

So there's no real "integrity" justification for repealing the EDR law. It's simply the hardball politics of making it harder to vote for highly mobile (i.e. young) demographics. The support I've heard so far is along the lines of: "well, people can just register on time, then." Trust me. I've worked in elections a LONG time, both before and after EDRs. No matter how much you promote a deadline, someone won't hear about it. And it's just normal for people new to the election process to get interested in it late. Turn away a 19 year old for missing the deadline, and they might not come back till they're 40. Or ever.

HF 150 is just the beginning of how Republicans are going to go at election law: with a Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy. Pate rolls out the "Integrity" bill, says he's not interested in other legislation, and gives himself deniability. Meanwhile the legislators amend it and offer other bills to chip away further at voting access.

For example. Senator Brad Zaun has a competing voter ID bill, Senate File 47, that would limit acceptable IDs to photo IDs only, not allowing the voter "acknowledgement" or "verification" cards under Pate's bill. It's very easy to see Pate's bill getting amended to Zaun's language.

Speaking of Pate's "verification" cards: It appears these would be issued once weekly by comparing the voter file to the driver's license file. (Not in the actual bill: Pate's office says there would be a one-time mailing upon implementation of the law to previously registered voters who don't have a license.) They'd be mailed out of the Secretary of State's office. That introduces some delay in getting them into the hands of voters. The devil here is in the details of how and when these cards would go out.

This provision is the contractual obligation album of the bill. Courts have ruled that if IDs are required there has to be a free ID, so Pate is dotting that t and crossing that i so he can say he did. This bill was no doubt thoroughly ALEC-vetted even before the election. ALEC gets over-used as a liberal boogey man, but this is what they actually do, draft legislation.

Elsewhere in the bill, as anticipated, the vote by mail window shrinks. There's a new first day to request ballots 120 days out (early July) which I have no problem with; virtually no self-starters request that early and I have long thought the coordinated campaigns solicit those requests too early. (Too many people move before Election Day.)

Moire of a problem, the last day to request a ballot moves back from the Friday before an election to the "pre-registration" deadline. (Or, if HF 150 passes, the registration deadline period.) That's 10 days before general elections and 11 days before any other election. (Military and overseas voters would be exempt from this under federal law.)

Last fall Johnson County saw 663 domestic vote by mail requests between Monday, October 31 (eight days out) and Friday, November 4, the current legal deadline. (Until 2004, there was no deadline at all. You could request a mailed ballot the day before the election, and I saw people successfully vote that way.) Of those 663 requests, 484 ballots were successfully returned on time and counted. That's people who at best would have had a lot harder time voting and for many that's people not able to vote at all.

There's other stuff here that is less interesting to me, frankly. A loan (NOT grant) program for the small counties who still don't have electronic pollbooks. There's a random auditing program and some paperwork requirements that look like they just document stuff we do anyway. I'm not AGAINST audits but they will probably not make the black box voting folks happy; I'm convinced their end game agenda is just hand counting all ballots all the time.

Audits will be paid for by charging a quarter to vote.

That might work in the UK if you're just voting on one thing, Member of Parliament, but it doesn't work in an electoral system like ours with dozens of items on the ballot. (Mercifully, the audits restrict themselves to president and governor.)

The two other bills do a couple interesting things. One would allow the use of multi-precinct "vote centers" in primary and general elections; at present this is only available in city and school elections. We use a vote center for North Liberty city elections and people seem to like it. The city sure does when it gets the bill, because it's much cheaper to open one big precinct than six small ones. (Workers are the single biggest cost in elections.)

The other bill clarifies the mess that some counties had last fall with school elections on a general election ballot and specifies that school board vacancies are filled at the next SCHOOL election. (However, there are other bills in both House and Senate, with similar language, that would combine school and city elections. A whole `nother post; that isn't as easy as it sounds.)

It also allows the public to petition for special elections in the event of a school board vacancy, which would be consistent with what is already allowed for city and county offices. We had an issue with this in Iowa City last summer. There was a strong consensus that the public wanted a special election, but the only way to make it happen was for the school board to go through the charade of "failing to appoint."

Another provision of the bill would expand the use of "nursing home teams" that currently visit licensed care facilities into assisted living facilities, specifically those focused on dementia issues. This is the only thing I've seen in any of these bills that would address voter...

Well, I won't call it "fraud." Actually canceling a registration for mental incompetence under court order is so rare that it hasn't happened in my county in at least 40 years. (We got paperwork once, and the person was not registered.)  But I've seen behavior that while legal make me uncomfortable.  When the 60something adult child is "helping" the 90something parent, it's hard to tell where the help ends and the pressure or the taking advantage of the situation begins. I'd rather have a bipartisan team of trained pollworkers dealing with it.

---

So let's count votes from these bills. Johnson County is down 484 late absentees and 5212 EDR votes so 5696... well more than George W. Bush's margin over John Kerry. And that's not counting people who forgot their wallet or whose roommate threw their card away (again, more likely a young mobile person) or who had to leave because the line was too long.

Which of course is the point.

Voter ID laws and earlier deadlines aren't about absolute prohibitions. They're about the percentages. It's a philosophical difference: is voting a duty or a right? Should it be easy to vote, or hard to vote? Iowa Republicans are coming down hard on one side of that.

Some thoughts on Obama's last night

I'm not going to any events or rallies or marches this weekend. I wish all the best to those who do, and the headlines might be worth the effort unlike some other recent efforts. It may provide a needed catharsis for a lot of people.

I have found myself retreating into a smaller and smaller world since the election. The Democratic infighting which never really stopped after the convention has continued, with a battle to be fought over state chair Saturday. I feel constrained from speaking my mind both because of my better judgement about making it worse - I'm still writing, just not publishing - and because of some of the over-reactions I see.

All I'll say is that yes, there is value in new people and new ways... but there is also value in experience. Experience is what I have to offer, if that's still welcome. With all the "take over" and "throw the Establishment out" talk right now, I don't know if experience IS welcome. (And I'm still dumbfounded at the idea that someone as odd as me is part of any "establishment.")

What and how I do things the next couple of years depends on who emerges from these internal fights and how people get along after those decisions. I don't want to spend a lot of time with people who don't get me or don't like me, and I don't want to sit in long meetings full of tension. I have found over long experience that I work best alone, anyway.

The best use of my energy is to do what I do best, and that's not struggling through interpersonal challenges. I'm much better at digging into numbers and data, and maybe writing about it.

There are so many battles to fight right now, with a new outrage erupting faster than I can catch up my Twitter feed. Every issue is important, but I'm focused on what I know which is the election law that, two weeks after it was announced, we still haven't seen.

So I'll be at home this weekend. I'll hang out with my family and my pets. I'll watch my team win, I hope.

And at some point I'll start working on updating my fundraising lists. For me, that's the best way to fight back right now.

How Johnson County Went Democratic For The 14th Time In A Row Since LBJ

(Not Quite The Same Way It Did Last Time)

Donald Trump's Dubuque County win in November leaves Johnson County as the Iowa county with the longest continuous Democratic presidential winning streak, back to LBJ vs. Goldwater in 1964. When I researched that years ago, I wasn't surprised by Ike, but I was surprised that despite a strong Irish Catholic Democrat heritage, Johnson County picked Nixon over JFK in the last GOP win.

I thought people were tired of November election numbers, until Pat Rynard at Iowa Starting Line did an epic, precinct-level post,  "How Dubuque County Went Republican For The 1st Time Since Eisenhower," last week. After that I threatened to do the same for Johnson County, and no one told me not to. So I'm blatantly stealing Pat's idea and format and replacing Dubuque's numbers with Iowa City's.

Dubuque Co.	2016	2016%	2012	2012%	Vote Diff	% Diff
Trump/Romney	23,460	47.20%	21,280	41.80%	2,180	5.40%
Clinton/Obama	22,850	46.00%	28,768	56.50%	-5,918	-10.60%
Stein	379	0.80%	111	0.20%	268	0.50%
Johnson	2,013	4.00%	438	0.90%	1,575	3.20%
Other	1,019	2.00%	297	0.60%	722	1.50%
Total	49,721		50,894		-1,173
Johnson Co.	2016	2016%	2012	2012%	Vote Diff	% Diff
Trump/Romney	21044	27.35%	23698	31.19%	-2,654	-3.84%
Clinton/Obama	50200	65.25%	50666	66.69%	-466	-1.44%
Stein	878	1.14%	333	0.44%	545	0.70%
Johnson	2758	3.58%	846	1.11%	1,912	2.47%
Other	2060	2.68%	434	0.57%	1,626	2.11%
Total	77,476		76,199		1,277

At first, I thought this would be a lot of number crunching for not much insight. I had dismissed the local results as Johnson County Normal - a slight drop for Hillary, a bigger drop for Donald, and a slightly larger Democratic margin than Obama won over Romney.

But the closer I looked, the more I saw national and state level patterns mirrored close to home. The results seem to not be so much More Of The Same as they are multiple trends in different directions that came very close to balancing out.

Pat split Dubuque city into four chunks and looked at the rest of the county as a whole. I broke slightly bigger Iowa City into five. I also broke out Coralville, North Liberty, and I split the rural part of the county into two. (Polling places listed may vary as we moved some precincts between 2012 and 2016).

Let's start by looking at the two parts of Iowa City that people think of when they think "Iowa City."

Campus and Downtown

Precincts 3 and 5 are dorm-dominated; 3 also has a chunk of neighborhood and an apartment chunk of mostly med students. 19 is almost entirely student apartments. 11 and 20 are mainly student apartments though 11 has a chunk of working class neighborhood (where I live) and 20 has a couple senior buildings. Those are the five traditional "student" precincts. 13 has trended student since the construction of the Hawks Ridge apartment complex - though in a retrospective edit, I see that I should have grouped it somewhere else.

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC03 Petersen	551	33.39%	967	58.61%	19	1.15%	87	5.27%	26	1.58%	1,657
IC05 UI Library	455	24.70%	1,252	67.97%	16	0.87%	86	4.67%	33	1.79%	1,847
IC11 UI Library	409	25.79%	1,041	65.64%	26	1.64%	79	4.98%	31	1.95%	1,588
IC13 Hawks Ridge	238	17.80%	977	73.07%	27	2.02%	52	3.89%	43	3.22%	1,349
IC19 Rec Center	334	23.16%	959	66.50%	26	1.80%	89	6.17%	34	2.36%	1,442
IC20 Senior Center	343	20.64%	1,183	71.18%	29	1.74%	71	4.27%	36	2.17%	1,666
Campus subtotal	2,330	24.40%	6,379	66.80%	143	1.50%	464	4.86%	203	2.13%	9,549
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC03 Quad	565	35.01%	1,000	61.96%	5	0.31%	29	1.80%	15	0.93%	1,614
IC05 UI Library	539	32.28%	1,075	64.37%	4	0.24%	39	2.34%	13	0.78%	1,672
IC11 Courthouse	591	33.93%	1,090	62.57%	10	0.57%	39	2.24%	12	0.69%	1,747
IC13 City Transit	296	20.86%	1,079	76.04%	8	0.56%	30	2.11%	6	0.42%	1,423
IC19 Rec Center	429	28.81%	994	66.76%	11	0.74%	36	2.42%	19	1.28%	1,490
IC20 Senior Center	504	28.97%	1,179	67.76%	17	0.98%	33	1.90%	7	0.40%	1,741
Campus subtotal	2,924	30.18%	6,417	66.24%	55	0.57%	206	2.13%	72	0.74%	9,687
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
IC03 Petersen	-14		-33		14		58		11		43
IC05 UI Library	-84		177		12		47		20		175
IC11 UI Library	-182		-49		16		40		19		-159
IC13 Hawks Ridge	-58		-102		19		22		37		-74
IC19 Rec Center	-95		-35		15		53		15		-48
IC20 Senior Center	-161		4		12		38		29		-75
Campus subtotal	-594		-38		88		258		131		-138
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
IC03 Petersen	-1.61%		-3.35%		0.84%		3.48%		0.65%		1.74%
IC05 UI Library	-7.57%		3.60%		0.63%		2.33%		1.01%		-11.17%
IC11 UI Library	-8.14%		3.07%		1.07%		2.74%		1.27%		-11.20%
IC13 Hawks Ridge	-3.06%		-2.97%		1.46%		1.78%		2.79%		-0.09%
IC19 Rec Center	-5.65%		-0.25%		1.06%		3.75%		1.08%		-5.40%
IC20 Senior Center	-8.33%		3.42%		0.77%		2.38%		1.76%		-11.75%
Campus subtotal	-5.78%		0.56%		0.93%		2.73%		1.38%		-6.34%

These were heavy Bernie precincts at caucus time, and note a slight turnout drop in the off-campus precincts and a more than doubling of the third party vote share. (Over 1 percent of the Johnson County vote, more than 900 people, was on the write-in line, up from just 60 votes as recently as 2004.) But the drop was only slight, and the tend was toward the Democrats - or, more accurately, away from Trump.

Interestingly, precinct 3 had one of the lowest Hillary percentages in the city, and actually trended slightly to Trump, but the very similar precinct 5 performed more like 2012 and shifted 11 points toward the Democrats. I have no explanation as to why the two dorm precincts behaved so differently; perhaps a younger reader who knows more about residence life can help.

Precinct 13 has the highest Democratic score here, and also has the highest non-student percentage. As I so often note, it's not undergrads that make Iowa City, or any other college town, a liberal island of blue. Undergrads still tend to follow parental political cues. No, it's grad students and faculty and staff who make college towns liberal, and they live in...

The People's Republic

These three precincts are historically the most Democratic in the county. It barely even makes sense to make a walking list, because you'll get a Democrat at every door.

In 2000, Ralph Nader edged George W. Bush for second place in north side precinct 21, and 21 usually fights with Longfellow neighborhood 18 for bragging rights. Precinct 17, which voted at City High till this year (handicapped accessibility requirements made it impossible to stay) usually has a slightly lower percentage but has the biggest Democratic vote totals.

These areas were also strong for Sanders at caucus time, but not as overwhelmingly as the youth-dominated student precincts. The fundamental divide between Sanders and Clinton was pragmatism vs. realism...

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC17 Our Redeemer	260	13.32%	1,568	80.33%	40	2.05%	36	1.84%	48	2.46%	1,963
IC18 Longfellow	191	10.71%	1,471	82.46%	36	2.02%	42	2.35%	44	2.47%	1,791
IC21 Horace Mann	226	13.78%	1,286	78.41%	40	2.44%	52	3.17%	36	2.20%	1,646
Lefty subtotal	677	12.54%	4,325	80.09%	116	2.15%	130	2.41%	128	2.37%	5,400
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC17 City High	363	18.34%	1,541	77.87%	30	1.52%	34	1.72%	11	0.56%	1,983
IC18 Longfellow	260	13.54%	1,595	83.07%	17	0.89%	35	1.82%	13	0.68%	1,922
IC21 Horace Mann	335	19.15%	1,340	76.62%	21	1.20%	38	2.17%	15	0.86%	1,752
Lefty subtotal	958	16.93%	4,476	79.12%	68	1.20%	107	1.89%	39	0.69%	5,657
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
IC17 Our Redeemer	-103		27		10		2		37		-20
IC18 Longfellow	-69		-124		19		7		31		-131
IC21 Horace Mann	-109		-54		19		14		21		-106
Lefty subtotal	-281		-151		48		23		89		-257
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
IC17 Our Redeemer	-5.02%		2.46%		0.53%		0.13%		1.90%		-7.48%
IC18 Longfellow	-2.84%		-0.62%		1.13%		0.53%		1.79%		-2.22%
IC21 Horace Mann	-5.37%		1.80%		1.24%		1.00%		1.34%		-7.17%
Lefty subtotal	-4.40%		0.97%		0.95%		0.52%		1.68%		-5.37%

...and we see that gain in the general where the trend to Johnson and Stein was lower than in the student neighborhoods. However, the trend to Other was just as strong as with the students, and turnout was also down a little more here.

In precincts 17 and 21, we see both trends away from Trump and toward Hillary. Precinct 18 didn't trend away from Trump as much, but that may be because they were already close to rock bottom for Romney. Despite a slight drop, 18 had the highest Hillary percentage in the county. These are about the biggest Democratic percentages you'll see anywhere in America outside of majority-minority parts of big cities.

The South/Southeast side

Iowa City's southeast side is an odd mix: trailer courts and big non-student working class apartments, interlaced with empty nesters who are not happy about Those People From Chicago. Iowa City, especially this area, has seen a noticeable black in-migration in the past 15 to 20 years, and also has a growing Hispanic population centered in these precincts. Included for demographic sake are two trailer-dominated "rural" precincts, Scott and West Lucas townships.

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC10 Trueblood	322	24.30%	918	69.28%	14	1.06%	34	2.57%	37	2.79%	1,338
IC12 Grant Wood	281	18.34%	1,131	73.83%	21	1.37%	56	3.66%	43	2.81%	1,542
IC14 Mark Twain	204	14.32%	1,108	77.75%	27	1.89%	43	3.02%	43	3.02%	1,431
IC15 Tate	174	18.26%	685	71.88%	29	3.04%	38	3.99%	27	2.83%	963
SC Scott	306	32.90%	569	61.18%	11	1.18%	28	3.01%	16	1.72%	937
WL West Lucas	194	30.22%	405	63.08%	15	2.34%	11	1.71%	17	2.65%	646
south subtotal	1,481	21.60%	4,816	70.23%	117	1.71%	210	3.06%	183	2.67%	6,857
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC10 City Parks	312	24.66%	927	73.28%	5	0.40%	16	1.26%	5	0.40%	1,273
IC12 Grant Wood	314	20.52%	1,184	77.39%	6	0.39%	12	0.78%	14	0.92%	1,538
IC14 Mark Twain	259	17.13%	1,219	80.62%	13	0.86%	9	0.60%	12	0.79%	1,523
IC15 Tate	247	20.36%	943	77.74%	8	0.66%	10	0.82%	5	0.41%	1,219
SC Scott	352	35.20%	630	63.00%	6	0.60%	7	0.70%	5	0.50%	1,007
WL West Lucas	203	28.12%	511	70.78%	3	0.42%	2	0.28%	3	0.42%	730
south subtotal	1,687	23.14%	5,414	74.27%	41	0.56%	56	0.77%	44	0.60%	7,290
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
IC10 Trueblood	10		-9		9		18		32		65
IC12 Grant Wood	-33		-53		15		44		29		4
IC14 Mark Twain	-55		-111		14		34		31		-92
IC15 Tate	-73		-258		21		28		22		-256
SC Scott	-46		-61		5		21		11		-70
WL West Lucas	-9		-106		12		9		14		-84
south subtotal	-206		-598		76		154		139		-433
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
IC10 Trueblood	-0.36%		-4.00%		0.66%		1.30%		2.40%		3.64%
IC12 Grant Wood	-2.18%		-3.56%		0.98%		2.87%		1.89%		1.38%
IC14 Mark Twain	-2.81%		-2.87%		1.03%		2.42%		2.22%		0.05%
IC15 Tate	-2.10%		-5.86%		2.38%		3.16%		2.42%		3.76%
SC Scott	-2.30%		-1.82%		0.58%		2.31%		1.22%		-0.48%
WL West Lucas	2.10%		-7.69%		1.92%		1.44%		2.23%		9.79%
south subtotal	-1.54%		-4.03%		1.14%		2.29%		2.07%		2.49%

Precinct 10 doesn't quite fit here; new owner-occupied homes make this the one precinct in the area with a turnout increase. And you can see that Scott and West Lucas still have some rural voters. But 14 and to a lesser extent precinct 12 and (because of high third party totals including Stein's top score at 3% ) precinct 15 rival even the lefty heartland with their percentages;  would have been nice to have gotten more voters out of here.

Most of the turnout drop here is in one precinct, 15. The "redevelopment" of the Rose Oaks apartments (formerly and locally known as Lakeside) uprooted a lot of people. There may also have been a dip in black turnout without Barack Obama on the ballot, but racial voting data isn't available in Iowa.

East Side

Now we're starting to get into "townie" Iowa City. There are apartments here and there but most of these voters are homeowners in long-established neighborhoods. Precinct 6 has large senior complexes. Precinct 22 has some new homes in the Peninsula neighborhood and the only population of students here, at the Mayflower dorm. (I tried really hard to fix that in reprecincting and couldn't.) Precinct 24 is dominated by the relatively new and high income Windsor Ridge development.

These voters are not usually left wing in local elections, but are solidly Democratic at the top of the ticket.

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC01 Lemme	439	22.15%	1,442	72.75%	10	0.50%	34	1.72%	57	2.88%	1,997
IC06 Mercer	364	19.65%	1,358	73.33%	23	1.24%	52	2.81%	55	2.97%	1,869
IC16 Mercer	247	14.71%	1,321	78.68%	27	1.61%	39	2.32%	45	2.68%	1,695
IC22 Shimek	319	21.92%	1,042	71.62%	15	1.03%	42	2.89%	37	2.54%	1,466
IC23 ICCSD	372	18.60%	1,488	74.40%	27	1.35%	53	2.65%	60	3.00%	2,015
IC24 St. Patrick	547	26.26%	1,388	66.63%	18	0.86%	68	3.26%	62	2.98%	2,113
east subtotal	2,288	20.51%	8,039	72.07%	120	1.08%	288	2.58%	316	2.83%	11,155
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC01 Lemme	535	27.88%	1,361	70.92%	2	0.10%	15	0.78%	6	0.31%	1,924
IC06 Mercer	513	26.76%	1,367	71.31%	12	0.63%	15	0.78%	10	0.52%	1,924
IC16 Lucas	336	19.48%	1,353	78.43%	9	0.52%	18	1.04%	9	0.52%	1,731
IC22 Shimek	349	23.97%	1,079	74.11%	6	0.41%	15	1.03%	7	0.48%	1,458
IC23 Regina	525	25.61%	1,486	72.49%	14	0.68%	12	0.59%	13	0.63%	2,054
IC24 St. Patrick	696	38.16%	1,111	60.91%	3	0.16%	10	0.55%	4	0.22%	1,828
east subtotal	2,954	27.05%	7,757	71.04%	46	0.42%	85	0.78%	49	0.45%	10,919
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
IC01 Lemme	-96		81		8		19		51		73
IC06 Mercer	-149		-9		11		37		45		-55
IC16 Mercer	-89		-32		18		21		36		-36
IC22 Shimek	-30		-37		9		27		30		8
IC23 ICCSD	-153		2		13		41		47		-39
IC24 St. Patrick	-149		277		15		58		58		285
east subtotal	-666		282		74		203		267		236
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
IC01 Lemme	-5.73%		1.83%		0.40%		0.93%		2.56%		-7.56%
IC06 Mercer	-7.11%		2.02%		0.62%		2.03%		2.45%		-9.12%
IC16 Mercer	-4.77%		0.24%		1.09%		1.28%		2.16%		-5.01%
IC22 Shimek	-2.05%		-2.49%		0.62%		1.86%		2.06%		0.45%
IC23 ICCSD	-7.01%		1.91%		0.67%		2.06%		2.37%		-8.92%
IC24 St. Patrick	-11.90%		5.72%		0.70%		2.72%		2.76%		-17.62%
east subtotal	-6.54%		1.03%		0.65%		1.80%		2.38%		-7.57%

And here we see outright revulsion at Trump, with a 17 point Democratic swing in precinct 24 and 9 point swings in 6 and 23. Most of this seems to be against Trump - note the giant spikes in the Johnson and Other vote, and I'm thinking that's McMullin or that's non-Trump GOP write-ins. Except in precinct 24, where Hillary ran almost 6 points ahead of Obama. The growth also means 24 accounted for most of the east side's turnout increase. (There's also one new subdivision in precinct 1.)

Granted, the "suburban" parts of Iowa City are a lot more Democratic that, say, Dallas County. But this is a Never Trump trend we saw nationally in similar places and which I expected, before Election Night, would be the big story of 2016.

West Side

There's a lot of similarity to the east side here, with Kennedy Parkway in precinct 7 taking the place of Windsor Ridge and Oaknoll in precinct 2 more than taking the place of the senior complexes in precinct 6. Precinct 4 is mostly the doctor/professor dominated very old neighborhood, Manville Heights; the enclaved speed trap University Heights has a similar feel.

But there's a few wild cards here. Precinct 4 also has a chunk of Frat Row, and there's a low income area split between 7 and 9 that includes a large and politically active Sudanese community. These are the voters I saw bringing their passports with them to vote as if to assert "I AM an American."

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC02 Horn	349	20.70%	1,208	71.65%	23	1.36%	55	3.26%	51	3.02%	1,707
IC04 Art	273	16.28%	1,309	78.06%	15	0.89%	59	3.52%	21	1.25%	1,688
IC07 West High	294	20.99%	1,016	72.52%	9	0.64%	48	3.43%	34	2.43%	1,413
IC08 Weber	437	24.69%	1,219	68.87%	11	0.62%	49	2.77%	54	3.05%	1,782
IC09 Hall of Fame	306	18.75%	1,188	72.79%	25	1.53%	52	3.19%	61	3.74%	1,642
UH University Heights	142	19.86%	527	73.71%	4	0.56%	23	3.22%	19	2.66%	720
West Subtotal	1,801	20.12%	6,467	72.24%	87	0.97%	286	3.19%	240	2.68%	8,952
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
IC02 Horn	531	29.57%	1,228	68.37%	6	0.33%	18	1.00%	13	0.72%	1,800
IC04 Lincoln	345	23.03%	1,130	75.43%	7	0.47%	9	0.60%	7	0.47%	1,499
IC07 West High	347	27.92%	872	70.15%	6	0.48%	10	0.80%	8	0.64%	1,248
IC08 Weber School	612	35.79%	1,085	63.45%	2	0.12%	7	0.41%	4	0.23%	1,715
IC09 Hall of Fame	430	25.10%	1,246	72.74%	7	0.41%	21	1.23%	9	0.53%	1,720
UH University Heights	233	30.14%	531	68.69%	2	0.26%	4	0.52%	3	0.39%	774
West Subtotal	2,498	28.53%	6,092	69.58%	30	0.34%	69	0.79%	44	0.50%	8,756
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
IC02 Horn	-182		-20		17		37		38		-93
IC04 Art	-72		179		8		50		14		189
IC07 West High	-53		144		3		38		26		165
IC08 Weber	-175		134		9		42		50		67
IC09 Hall of Fame	-124		-58		18		31		52		-78
UH University Heights	-91		-4		2		19		16		-54
West Subtotal	-697		375		57		217		196		196
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
IC02 Horn	-8.87%		3.27%		1.03%		2.26%		2.30%		-12.14%
IC04 Art	-6.75%		2.62%		0.43%		2.92%		0.78%		-9.37%
IC07 West High	-6.93%		2.37%		0.16%		2.62%		1.78%		-9.30%
IC08 Weber	-11.10%		5.42%		0.50%		2.36%		2.82%		-16.52%
IC09 Hall of Fame	-6.35%		0.06%		1.12%		1.96%		3.21%		-6.41%
UH University Heights	-10.28%		5.01%		0.30%		2.70%		2.27%		-15.30%
West Subtotal	-8.41%		2.67%		0.63%		2.41%		2.18%		-11.08%

The west side shifted even more Democratic than the east - 11 points overall including a whopping 16.5% in precinct 8. The difference seems to be more of a trend toward Hillary, on top of the anti-Trump shift. But again, big spikes for Johnson, Other, and also Stein here.

Big surprise here: the turnout drop in precinct 2, despite heavy turnout civically engaged Oaknoll (site of the one successful satellite caucus in the state) opening a large new wing since 2012. I can't account for that; most of the student apartments on West Benton are in precinct 13, not 2. (Having already cut the turf, I see now that precinct 13 fits better here than it did in the student precincts.)

Coralville

Demographically there's really two Coralvilles. South Coralville (precinct 1, 4, and 5) is mostly older homes and apartments. North Coralville (precincts 2, 6, 7 and the demographically similar Penn Township) has bigger and newer homes and more money. Precinct 3 doesn't quite fit either; it's dominated by the Coral Court apartment complex and the Western Hills trailer court (where registration has been in decline).

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
CV01 Library	304	19.86%	1,095	71.52%	22	1.44%	65	4.25%	45	2.92%	1,541
CV02 Brown Deer	459	29.18%	990	62.94%	13	0.83%	53	3.37%	58	3.66%	1,586
CV03 Hygienic Lab	272	28.39%	615	64.20%	8	0.84%	33	3.44%	30	3.11%	966
CV04 City Hall	208	18.31%	838	73.77%	14	1.23%	39	3.43%	37	3.23%	1,145
CV05 NW Jr High	262	20.58%	926	72.74%	9	0.71%	41	3.22%	35	2.73%	1,280
CV06 Wickham	576	30.72%	1,181	62.99%	9	0.48%	66	3.52%	43	2.28%	1,887
CV07 North Ridge	371	23.74%	1,072	68.59%	18	1.15%	45	2.88%	57	3.65%	1,582
PN Penn Twp	596	30.94%	1,210	62.82%	12	0.62%	67	3.48%	41	2.13%	1,948
Coralville subtotal	3,048	25.54%	7,927	66.42%	105	0.88%	409	3.43%	346	2.90%	11,935
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
CV01 Central	344	24.01%	1,031	71.95%	10	0.70%	36	2.51%	12	0.84%	1,442
CV02 Grant Wood AEA	587	36.69%	972	60.75%	8	0.50%	21	1.31%	12	0.75%	1,602
CV03 Hygienic Lab	287	31.82%	604	66.96%	0	0.00%	6	0.67%	5	0.55%	902
CV04 Rec Center	265	20.35%	996	76.50%	8	0.61%	16	1.23%	17	1.31%	1,309
CV05 NW Jr High	344	25.29%	977	71.84%	10	0.74%	21	1.54%	8	0.59%	1,363
CV06 Wickham	752	43.62%	957	55.51%	4	0.23%	7	0.41%	4	0.23%	1,724
CV07 Northridge	459	28.72%	1,102	68.96%	7	0.44%	21	1.31%	9	0.56%	1,600
PN Penn Twp	715	36.46%	1,223	62.37%	5	0.25%	13	0.66%	5	0.25%	1,965
Coralville subtotal	3,753	31.52%	7,862	66.03%	52	0.44%	141	1.18%	72	0.60%	11,907
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
CV01 Library	-40		64		12		29		33		99
CV02 Brown Deer	-128		18		5		32		46		-16
CV03 Hygienic Lab	-15		11		8		27		25		64
CV04 City Hall	-57		-158		6		23		20		-164
CV05 NW Jr High	-82		-51		-1		20		27		-83
CV06 Wickham	-176		224		5		59		39		163
CV07 North Ridge	-88		-30		11		24		48		-18
PN Penn Twp	-119		-13		7		54		36		-17
Coralville subtotal	-705		65		53		268		274		28
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
CV01 Library	-4.15%		-0.43%		0.74%		1.73%		2.10%		-3.72%
CV02 Brown Deer	-7.51%		2.19%		0.33%		2.06%		2.94%		-9.69%
CV03 Hygienic Lab	-3.43%		-2.77%		0.84%		2.78%		2.58%		-0.66%
CV04 City Hall	-2.04%		-2.73%		0.62%		2.20%		1.95%		0.69%
CV05 NW Jr High	-4.71%		0.90%		-0.03%		1.68%		2.16%		-5.62%
CV06 Wickham	-12.90%		7.48%		0.25%		3.11%		2.06%		-20.38%
CV07 North Ridge	-4.99%		-0.38%		0.71%		1.56%		3.08%		-4.61%
PN Penn Twp	-5.52%		0.46%		0.37%		2.82%		1.87%		-5.97%
Coralville subtotal	-5.98%		0.39%		0.44%		2.24%		2.29%		-6.37%

We get a very mixed set of data from Coralville. Turnout was almost identical but it was a matter of counter-trends. Overall Hillary's percentage narrowly tops Obama's while Trump drops six points.

I'd say that shift was toward the third parties... but it isn't, because it isn't consistent across precincts. The big story here is precinct 6 with a 7.5% Hillary gain that more than accounts for her area-wide gain, and a massive 20 point shift to the Democrats.

North Liberty and Tiffin

This is some of the fastest growing turf in the state and it was the scene of the one significantly contested local race, in open House District 77 where North Liberty mayor Amy Nielsen beat a strong for Johnson County GOP candidate, former Tiffin mayor Royce Phillips.

North Liberty isn't any more of a monolith than Coralville is, yet we get an even more precise example of trends counter-balancing.

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
CC Tiffin	617	37.51%	898	54.59%	20	1.22%	76	4.62%	34	2.07%	1,654
NL01 Rec Center	447	30.79%	873	60.12%	11	0.76%	62	4.27%	59	4.06%	1,458
NL02 Garner	446	31.45%	847	59.73%	7	0.49%	72	5.08%	46	3.24%	1,430
NL03 South Slope	618	32.79%	1,056	56.02%	17	0.90%	122	6.47%	72	3.82%	1,896
NL04 North Central	352	27.80%	812	64.14%	14	1.11%	50	3.95%	38	3.00%	1,279
NL05 Rec Center	337	27.85%	762	62.98%	13	1.07%	59	4.88%	39	3.22%	1,216
NL06-MD UICCU	867	37.00%	1,258	53.69%	22	0.94%	128	5.46%	68	2.90%	2,351
NL/Tiffin subtotal	3,684	32.65%	6,506	57.66%	104	0.92%	569	5.04%	356	3.15%	11,284
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
CC Tiffin	477	36.47%	804	61.47%	3	0.23%	17	1.30%	7	0.54%	1,313
NL01 NL Comm Center	502	37.46%	821	61.27%	0	0.00%	11	0.82%	6	0.45%	1,341
NL02 Garner	497	36.54%	849	62.43%	2	0.15%	7	0.51%	5	0.37%	1,366
NL03 South Slope	603	39.62%	890	58.48%	5	0.33%	20	1.31%	4	0.26%	1,524
NL04 North Central	359	27.94%	904	70.35%	1	0.08%	8	0.62%	13	1.01%	1,292
NL05 NL Comm Center	459	34.85%	837	63.55%	1	0.08%	12	0.91%	8	0.61%	1,320
NL06-MD North Bend	787	40.73%	1,102	57.04%	5	0.26%	28	1.45%	10	0.52%	1,934
NL/Tiffin subtotal	3,684	36.51%	6,207	61.52%	17	0.17%	103	1.02%	53	0.53%	10,090
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
CC Tiffin	140		94		17		59		27		341
NL01 Rec Center	-55		52		11		51		53		117
NL02 Garner	-51		-2		5		65		41		64
NL03 South Slope	15		166		12		102		68		372
NL04 North Central	-7		-92		13		42		25		-13
NL05 Rec Center	-122		-75		12		47		31		-104
NL06-MD UICCU	80		156		17		100		58		417
NL/Tiffin subtotal	0		299		87		466		303		1,194
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
CC Tiffin	1.04%		-6.88%		0.99%		3.32%		1.53%		7.92%
NL01 Rec Center	-6.68%		-1.14%		0.76%		3.45%		3.62%		-5.53%
NL02 Garner	-5.09%		-2.69%		0.35%		4.56%		2.88%		-2.40%
NL03 South Slope	-6.83%		-2.45%		0.57%		5.16%		3.56%		-4.38%
NL04 North Central	-0.13%		-6.21%		1.03%		3.33%		1.99%		6.08%
NL05 Rec Center	-7.00%		-0.58%		1.00%		3.96%		2.62%		-6.42%
NL06-MD UICCU	-3.73%		-3.35%		0.68%		4.01%		2.38%		-0.38%
NL/Tiffin subtotal	-3.86%		-3.86%		0.75%		4.02%		2.63%		0.00%

I thought I made a spreadsheet error so I checked again and yes, Trump and Clinton's losses compared to Romney and Obama exactly balanced out in North Liberty and Tiffin for zero net percentage change. With both major party candidates losing nearly four points, that of course means a massive jump in third party votes. That's not entirely a shock; high growth areas tend to be less politically established and less rooted to tradition. North Liberty 3 topped 11 percent 3rd party. (Tangent: the four precincts with the highest non-two party vote were all demographically different: high income high growth North Liberty 3, student precinct Iowa City 19, southeast side Iowa City 15, and small town Hills.)

Tiffin, which is a couple decades closer to its rural roots than North Liberty, trended away from Clinton. So did trailer court dominated North Liberty 4.  That was counter-balanced by anti-Trump trends in precincts 1 and 5 which are slightly older development, though nothing's very old out here. Precinct 5 actually saw a drop in total voters. That area is built out, perhaps indicating that the overall North Liberty turnout increase was caused more by growth than by increased interest.

The Greater Solon Metropolitan Area

Rural Johnson County doesn't divide neatly so I split it into two. 

Even the most casual local observers have seen a GOP trend in northeast Johnson County, and the sage of Solon Paul Deaton has written about it extensively. Most of this turf is in Republican Bobby Kaufmann's legislative district; he's worked this area hard and went without opposition this cycle.

Demographically most of this is high growth turf including Swisher and Shueyville (in Nielsen's district, not Kaufmann's) which are oriented as much toward Cedar Rapids as Iowa City. Outside the town there are a lot of big houses with couples commuting in opposite directions.

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
BG Big Grove	575	48.94%	529	45.02%	3	0.26%	42	3.57%	26	2.21%	1,187
CE Cedar	191	53.35%	144	40.22%	1	0.28%	10	2.79%	12	3.35%	358
GR Graham	122	37.65%	185	57.10%	3	0.93%	8	2.47%	6	1.85%	325
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville	813	51.10%	676	42.49%	10	0.63%	59	3.71%	33	2.07%	1,594
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher	745	51.13%	639	43.86%	6	0.41%	31	2.13%	36	2.47%	1,464
NP Newport	580	36.64%	898	56.73%	14	0.88%	41	2.59%	50	3.16%	1,595
SO Solon city	612	43.87%	688	49.32%	11	0.79%	51	3.66%	33	2.37%	1,410
Metro Solon subtotal	3,638	45.86%	3,759	47.38%	48	0.61%	242	3.05%	196	2.47%	7,933
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
BG Big Grove	551	49.33%	555	49.69%	1	0.09%	7	0.63%	3	0.27%	1,123
CE Cedar	151	42.78%	198	56.09%	0	0.00%	2	0.57%	2	0.57%	353
GR Graham	107	35.43%	187	61.92%	2	0.66%	2	0.66%	4	1.32%	302
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville	841	53.81%	699	44.72%	4	0.26%	10	0.64%	9	0.58%	1,568
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher	702	48.58%	735	50.87%	0	0.00%	6	0.42%	2	0.14%	1,451
NP Newport	646	40.38%	936	58.50%	1	0.06%	10	0.63%	7	0.44%	1,603
SO Solon city	447	37.91%	715	60.64%	4	0.34%	7	0.59%	6	0.51%	1,184
Metro Solon subtotal	3,445	45.42%	4,025	53.07%	12	0.16%	44	0.58%	33	0.44%	7,584
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
BG Big Grove	24		-26		2		35		23		64
CE Cedar	40		-54		1		8		10		5
GR Graham	15		-2		1		6		2		23
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville	-28		-23		6		49		24		26
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher	43		-96		6		25		34		13
NP Newport	-66		-38		13		31		43		-8
SO Solon city	165		-27		7		44		27		226
Metro Solon subtotal	193		-266		36		198		163		349
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
BG Big Grove	-0.39%		-4.67%		0.17%		2.95%		1.94%		4.27%
CE Cedar	10.58%		-15.87%		0.28%		2.23%		2.79%		26.44%
GR Graham	2.22%		-4.82%		0.26%		1.81%		0.53%		7.05%
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville	-2.71%		-2.23%		0.37%		3.07%		1.50%		-0.47%
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher	2.55%		-7.01%		0.41%		1.71%		2.33%		9.56%
NP Newport	-3.74%		-1.77%		0.82%		1.97%		2.72%		-1.96%
SO Solon city	5.96%		-11.33%		0.45%		3.06%		1.86%		17.28%
Metro Solon subtotal	0.43%		-5.69%		0.45%		2.47%		2.04%		6.12%

Here for the first time we see actual Trump wins. Romney carried only Shueyville; Trump adds Swisher, Big Grove (the rural area immediately surrounding Solon city) and rural Cedar Township (the greater metropolitan Sutliff area), and holds Hillary under 50% in Solon.

Demographic question I can't figure out: Cedar used to vote as Democratic as the very similar Graham Township (greater metropolitan Morse). Graham has stayed blue while Cedar has turned red in a big way with a 26 point shift to Trump.

And Graham seems to be a major anomaly here. These areas seem to be far enough out that the suburban Never Trump trend is overwhelmed by the exurban and rural Never Hillary tend. 

Turnout is up, more due to growth than interest. The exception is Newport which may actually be a rare case where a hot legislative race in 2012 got people out more than president did. Newport is also closer to Iowa City and sees a small gain in Democratic margin

Rural Rural Johnson County

The North Corridor precincts we just looked at are mostly suburban, but the final chunk of the county is where the farms and true small towns are. And as elsewhere in Iowa and the  nation, the Democrats got our asses handed to us here.

2016	Trump		Clinton		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
FR Lone Tree area	519	49.10%	465	43.99%	10	0.95%	46	4.35%	17	1.61%	1,063
HD Hardin (Cosgrove)	171	49.57%	153	44.35%	0	0.00%	13	3.77%	8	2.32%	348
HS Hills city	165	35.48%	256	55.05%	5	1.08%	27	5.81%	12	2.58%	469
LB rural Hills	175	45.10%	197	50.77%	3	0.77%	10	2.58%	3	0.77%	393
OX Oxford	396	47.65%	373	44.89%	11	1.32%	33	3.97%	18	2.17%	839
SN Sharon	201	55.83%	139	38.61%	1	0.28%	5	1.39%	14	3.89%	364
UN Union	189	44.47%	226	53.18%	3	0.71%	6	1.41%	1	0.24%	430
WS Washington	281	56.43%	173	34.74%	5	1.00%	20	4.02%	19	3.82%	505
Rural Rural subtotal	2,097	47.54%	1,982	44.93%	38	0.86%	160	3.63%	92	2.09%	4,411
2012	Romney		Obama		Stein		Johnson		Other		Total Votes
FR Lone Tree area	399	40.02%	582	58.38%	4	0.40%	9	0.90%	3	0.30%	1,001
HD Hardin (Cosgrove)	145	44.75%	173	53.40%	2	0.62%	2	0.62%	2	0.62%	329
HS Hills city	140	31.11%	294	65.33%	2	0.44%	11	2.44%	3	0.67%	452
LB rural Hills	157	40.89%	223	58.07%	0	0.00%	2	0.52%	2	0.52%	387
OX Oxford	304	35.56%	539	63.04%	1	0.12%	5	0.58%	6	0.70%	857
SN Sharon	208	57.14%	150	41.21%	2	0.55%	2	0.55%	2	0.55%	367
UN Union	180	41.57%	248	57.27%	1	0.23%	2	0.46%	2	0.46%	436
WS Washington	262	54.70%	207	43.22%	0	0.00%	2	0.42%	8	1.67%	480
Rural Rural subtotal	1,795	41.66%	2,416	56.07%	12	0.28%	35	0.81%	28	0.65%	4,309
2016 vs 2012 votes	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Total Votes
FR Lone Tree area	120		-117		6		37		14		62
HD Hardin (Cosgrove)	26		-20		-2		11		6		19
HS Hills city	25		-38		3		16		9		17
LB rural Hills	18		-26		3		8		1		6
OX Oxford	92		-166		10		28		12		-18
SN Sharon	-7		-11		-1		3		12		-3
UN Union	9		-22		2		4		-1		-6
WS Washington	19		-34		5		18		11		25
Rural Rural subtotal	302		-434		26		125		64		102
2016 vs 2012 %	Trump vs Romney		Clinton vs Obama		Stein 16 vs 12		Johnson 16 vs 12		Other 16 Vs 12		Net R Swing
FR Lone Tree area	9.08%		-14.38%		0.54%		3.45%		1.31%		23.46%
HD Hardin (Cosgrove)	4.81%		-9.05%		-0.62%		3.15%		1.70%		13.86%
HS Hills city	4.37%		-10.28%		0.63%		3.36%		1.91%		14.65%
LB rural Hills	4.22%		-7.30%		0.77%		2.06%		0.25%		11.52%
OX Oxford	12.10%		-18.16%		1.21%		3.39%		1.46%		30.25%
SN Sharon	-1.31%		-2.60%		-0.27%		0.84%		3.34%		1.29%
UN Union	2.90%		-4.10%		0.47%		0.95%		-0.23%		7.00%
WS Washington	1.73%		-8.48%		1.00%		3.60%		2.15%		10.20%
Rural Rural subtotal	5.88%		-11.14%		0.58%		2.82%		1.44%		17.02%

Sharon and Washington townships have always voted like pieces of GOP leaning Washington County that were accidentally surveyed into the wrong county. Sharon stays almost the same but Washington sees a 8.5 point shift sway from the Democrats to third parties.  Most of this massive 17 point shift across rural rural Johnson County was anti-Clinton. Amy Nielsen didn't see similar drops in her open legislative race. The third parties jumped from very low levels to numbers approaching the rest of the county.

Trump adds Cosgrove and, with shifts of Howard County proportions, Oxford and Lone Tree to the red column. The Hills area, so ancestrally Democratic that even I won it in my Some Dude legislative race 20 years ago, stays Democratic but sees a red shift that would have seemed big back when we were looking at cities. Overall, this adds up to a Trump win in this part of the county. Turnout was up in this low-growth area, with most of the increase coming from Lone Tree.

Democrats in every part of Iowa and every part of the nation have questions about how to proceed into the Trump Era. For Johnson County, the rural question is less pressing simply because of the nature of the county. The numbers in those places are relatively small. The real issue for local Democrats is how to gain back those third party votes - both on the Never Hillary Left and the Never Trump center right - while holding on to the upper income suburban voters who defected from Trump to Clinton.