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John Deeth Blog |
| Too old to be cool, too young not to care | |
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Sunday, November 29, 2009
Miller-Meeks joins deja vu primary field It's deja vu on the GOP primary ballot as three of the players from 2008 are facing off in a slightly different configuration in 2010. The big news over this long holiday weekend (four days with no post is the longest I've been off the grid in years) is Mariannette Miller-Meeks announcing her second run at Dave Loebsack. To be honest, I was expecting MMM to hold off until the map got redrawn. But I was wrong there, so let's see what else I can be wrong about. Miller-Meeks was a bit of a surprise winner in the `08 primary. The early frontrunner and DC favorite was Peter Teahen, but he was greeted by grassroots loathing as Teahen's donation to 2002 Democratic candidate Julie Thomas became an issue. (The "donated to Dems" card is getting played by Vander Plaats in the governor's race, as he points out Terry Branstad's erstwhile support for Nebraska neighbor Ben Nelson.) So MMM was the conservative choice in 2008... but seems to be the establishment pick this time, launching the race with a tour with Barbara Grassley. But in the intervening months, has the party lurched enough to the right that a hardliner like Christopher "Not Tom Harkin" or Steve Rathje can get taken seriously? It helps MMM that the two will split the vote, but don't forget that late in the general election conservatives shot her in the foot by arguing she wasn't "pro-life" (sic) enough. And the primary dynamic is different this year; the top of the 2008 GOP primary ballot was a battle of also-rans for the right to lose to Tom Harkin, while 2010 will be the hottest governor primary since, well, since the last time Branstad was on the ballot. Speaking of tours, Roxanne Conlin is hitting the road with Bruce Braley. Just, you know, listening to people, not endorsin' or anything. And completing the sense of deja vu, it seems ole Stew Iverson may be making a comeback--on the HOUSE side against Six Packer McKinley Bailey. MMM is back: Link |
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Links to this post Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Thanksgiving Side Dishes Just a reminder that if it seems like there's less on the ole Deeth Blog these days to check out my Des Moines Register stuff. Now on with the clips: No wonder Republicans worry about a Democratic demographic storm. Young voter turnout has increased at a rate of about 30% per general election since 2000. Indeed, the rate of increase was higher from 2000 to 2004 than from 2004 to 2008. Or to put it my way: the nation got more like the People's Republic of Johnson County. Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom... There is no evidence that any group of Dems, especially liberal Dems are unhappy with Obama's performance. Critical is that moderate and even conservative Dems have not moved away since August. Angry conservative Reps are indeed very unhappy with Obama, at almost the same level of disgust as Dems felt for Bush, but they too have reached a plateau at a steady 10% approval. Public Policy Polling puts it more plainly: In June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover support... you have to ask though: was there any chance of many of those people actually voting for him in the future? Republicans have moved from give the guy a chance tolerance to tea party oppositional defiance. If Cratchit's skills were worth more to anyone than the fifteen shillings Scrooge pays him weekly, there would be someone glad to offer it to him. Since no one has, and since Cratchit's profit-maximizing boss is hardly a man to pay for nothing, Cratchit must be worth exactly his present wages. I can't tell if this is a joke or not. The fact that I can't tell if this is a joke or not is the main reason why Libertarians have been stuck in the half a percent range for three decades. A Gallup poll in October found 44 percent of Americans favor full legalization of marijuana -- a rise of 13 points since 2000. Gallup said that if public support continues growing at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year, "the majority of Americans could favor legalization of the drug in as little as four years." The younger generation has no romantic attachments to records as physical objects. To them, music exists as a kind of omnipresent atmospheric resource. Uphill, both ways, get off my lawn. Thanksgiving Side Dishes: Link |
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Links to this post Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Running-Marquardt Wins House 33 with 78% And it's a Democratic hold in House District 33 in Cedar Rapids, as Kirsten-Running-Marquardt wins with 78% over Republican Joshua Thurston. One of the bluest districts in the state stays blue. 9.5 percent turnout (for Iowa Citians, that's what we saw in the city election). Nearly half the vote on absentee, a sign of the Democratic field operation at work. And Cedar Rapids goes to the polls again in a week for the city runoff... Running-Marquardt Wins House 33: Link |
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Links to this post Monday, November 23, 2009
Scheffler backs GOP Purity Test Back in the early days of teh interwebs, various versions of "the Purity Test" floated about. It was scored like golf; the lower the score, the less "pure" you were and vice versa. Some of the questions on the deluxe 500 question version wend beyond funny into the zone of the disturbing, but it was all meant in good clean (well, dirty) fun. Of course, the modern GOP would have no part of such a purity test, at least outside the Minneapolis airport bathroom. But a number of members of the Republican National Committee, including Iowa's own Steve Scheffler, are backing a ten question Purity test with a real cost: get more than three wrong and they cut off the $. Apparantly the lessons of New York 23 are not yet learned. Here's the test. (1) We support smaller government, smaller national debt, lower deficits and lower taxes by opposing bills like Obama’s “stimulus” bill; Scheffler, whose political roots are in the Iowa Christian Alliance, was elected to the RNC at the 2008 state convention, ousting longtime member Steve Roberts. Litmus tests this strong are a bit scary... but why is it that Republicans are able to enforce support for the platform where Democrats can't? Scheffler backs GOP Purity Test: Link |
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Linux Monday Second Linux Monday in a row as I try to re-establish the feature. Ubuntu is slim enough that you can install it inside of Windows. That's right - you can actually have a fully functional, surprisingly powerful OS completely contained within the pale bloated mass that is Windows Vista. Linux Monday: Link |
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Links to this post Sunday, November 22, 2009
JJ and More I skipped out on Jefferson-Jackson this year; I wasn't the only one as Tom Harkin stayed in DC to vote on health care and Dave Loebsack was MIA on “a mission out of the country,” which likely means some Armed Services related work on the front lines. The Reg, O. Kay and Charlotte Eby were there. Observations: The Register also reports "Obama Below 50% Approval," but a closer look shows 49-44 with 7 percent undecided. Basically that means the McCain voters disapprove. As for that seven percent, considering the alternative... Speaking of which, of the infinite takes on Palin this week, Matt Taibbi has one of the fresher ones: Listen to Rush any day of the week and you’ll hear him playing the old-fashioned pundit game: he goes about the dreary business of picking through the policies and positions and public statements of Democrats and poking holes in them, arguing with them, attacking them with numbers and facts and pseudo-facts and non-facts and whatever else he can get his hands on, honest or not, but at least he tries. I can't add anything to that except: wouldn't it be awesome if Earth had rings like Saturn? JJ and More: Link |
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Links to this post Thursday, November 19, 2009
Republicans set convention, too And now the Johnson County Republicans have set their nominating convention. The Courier has the details and the party line, but the key facts are: Saturday afternoon Dec. 5, Coralville Library, Lori Cardella announced for nomination. Even though the petition drive was Republican-led (though by no means exclusively partisan), it was still a live question as to whether the GOP was going to take its own name into the election. As noted earlier today, in the last three county-wide specials (1994, 1997, 1999) the GOP did not have an official nominee--but clearly favored an independent-in-name candidate running against an official Democratic nominee. Personally, I think the label "Republican" is a negative in a 70% Obama county... but that certainly ain't my call to make. Republicans set convention, too: Link |
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Dems Set Nominating Convention Date for Dec. 3 Johnson County Democrats will nominate their candidate for the Jan. 19 special supervisor election at a Dec. 3 convention at the Pappajohn Business Building on the UI campus. Registration begins at 6:30 p.m. and the gavel drops at 7. "We hope to have special guests and have a short convention," says chair Dennis Roseman in the release. Business will be limited to the nomination itself. Thus far, only appointee Janelle Rettig has announced plans to seek the convention nod. The delegates and alternates will be those folks elected nearly two years ago on presidential caucus night, but seating will not be by presidential preference group. (Which should be a relief to people who made the then seemingly sensible but now embarrassing choice of John Edwards.) This is the fourth special election for county office in my two decades here. History lessons: tempers flare, appointees win, the side that petitions loses, the election itself is the main issue, Democrats who bolt the party lose in the following primary, and conservatives have backed independent candidates rather than officially nominating someone under the Republican label. (This last has changed; see next post) Johnson County Dems Set Convention Date: Link |
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Links to this post Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Special election: Over the top rhetoric already The Coralville Courier is really a must-read with your morning cup of coffee. Actually, tea (as in bag) might be more appropriate. It's a great insight into the mindset of local conservatives as the special election effort moves from petition stage into Lori Cardella campaign stage. One of the first hot-buttons in the campaign is the petitioner's reliance on student signatures: "Cardella said about half of her signatures came from UI students." I'm uneasy with criticizing that tactic--like I keep saying, I more than anyone argued in favor of students in the just-finished city election. The petitioners made a good effort and get a Hee-Haw salute: But it's--let's think of a mild word here... cynical to do so when the rhetoric at the time of the conservation bond recount was, to quote Tom Cardella, "the student body population may override the wishes of long-term rural residents of Johnson County." And even in attempting to defend the student signatures -- which are legitimate and don't even need defending -- local conservatives' contempt for the students shines through. Deb Thornton writes: "Johnson County Democrats - who by the way, just love all of the student votes, as long as they are voting straight ticket Democrat as they are told!" There's no way to truly ferret out the student vote; ballots are secret and University enrollment is not on the voter file. But I think even Deb and I can agree that Iowa City precincts 3 and 5 are the most student-dominated precincts. Straight ticket Democratic voting, 2008The students voted straight ticket D a tiny bit lower than average but basically no more or less than any other voters in the county. But most of Wednesday's sputtering rage of over-the-top rhetoric was directed at Sheriff Lonny Pulkrabek, who wrote in the Tuesday DI: I will now look forward to the special election so that we can welcome Janelle Rettig to the supervisors a second time and to tell Lori thanks, but no thanks. That $75,000 could have been put to a much better use. It could have been used to pay for the ever-climbing costs of bringing forward a new Justice Center. Now, I'm not yet convinced on the need for a new building (I could be persuaded, but I want some changes in law and in law enforcement policy in exchange), but Lonny is far more receptive to public opinion and input than his predecessor Bob Carpenter, who went into the 2000 jail bond campaign with the attitude of "I'm the sheriff, I say this is what I need, and how dare you have an opinion." Lonny started running in 2002, before Carpenter announced his retirement, meaning he was potentially running against his own boss. Hardly the move of a loyal "member of the local Democrat party machine" (though, in fairness, Carpenter was no more a Democrat than the man in the moon) or someone who's afraid of an election. Yet the headline blares, in the inimitable teabagger style, "Pulkrabek questions Constitutional right to vote." If anyone has questioned people's right to vote, it's Thornton, who led a GOP effort in 2004 that challenged 2000 Johnson County absentee ballots. Most were, you guessed it, students, but others had "flaws" such as living in a Systems Unlimited house or having bad handwriting--an effort that drove one woman with a degenerative disability to tears of rage. Back to Lonny, an anonymous writer ("from fear of reprisal from my own Sheriff") complains, "You are a sheriff now, sir, supposedly, a non-partisan position." Uhhh... actually, sheriff is a partisan position. We even had a Republican sheriff here as late as 1988. I seem to remember Lonny beating a Republican who said some rather unfortunate things about his horse. The rhetoric of Anonymous isn't quite to that level, but "supporter of one party rule, sort of like a dictator" doesn't 1) sound like the Lonny Pulkrabek I know or 2) raise the level of discourse. But it does fit the Tea Party line: Iowa City as Little Chicago. Ostensibly about corruption, but it bashes students, Chicago People If You Know What I Mean, and "President" Barrack Hussein Osama all at once. The "machine" rhetoric is amusing to this little cog, as it presents the Johnson County Democrats as some sort of efficient monolith, awaiting marching orders. Obviously, these folks have never been to any of our meetings. The Republicans should know about our primary fights, though; enough of them regularly participate as "Democrats for a day" using, as is their right, our rather loose laws on party registration. This may be as good a point as any to make it clear that Janelle Rettig is not necessarily the Democratic candidate in the Jan. 19 election, though she has announced her intent to seek the nomination at the special convention. (And I've announced my intent to support her at that convention--more info on that as details are announced.) Back to Anonymous, he/she/it writes: "How about some justice and protection for the south side! It is a war zone down there," apparently unaware that Broadway and Lakeside are city, not county, jurisdictions. (Aside: if the city was less concerned with harassing 18 19 and 20 year old adults downtown, they could devote more resources to public safety in other parts of town.) Just throw enough irrelevant stuff at the wall to see what sticks. (Anonymous also keeps posting comments on some of my blog's four year old posts, usually about Viagra. I suspect this may be unrelated.) One thing Anonymous does get right: "How many of the Johnson County Supervisors are Republican? That’s right, NONE!" True, because none have been elected to the job in 50 years. And if the low tone of rhetoric keeps up, Janelle Rettig should extend the Democratic winning streak. Team Cardella Over The Top already: Link |
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Mid-Day Clips Mid-Day Clips: Link |
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Go Get `em Mike City votes to deny liquor license to the Summit; Summit owner Mike Porter (the political deep pockets behind 2007's successful no campaign on the 21 bar issue) sues the city. At issue is the policy of basing license renewals on the rate of PAULA citations (that's Possession of Alcohol Under Legal Age for you non-Iowa Citians) Read the full lawsuit at the Gazette. The gist is, says the PC: The lawsuit states the resolution is illegal because, among other things, it: That's an ex post facto law, for you first year law students. It's great that Mike is taking on this fight now, even though it's self-interest. I wish we'd seen him get engaged in this year's city election, but the choices weren't especially credible. (I noticed BoJames owner and 2001 candidate Leah Cohen on Terry Dickens' donor list--is that an indicator of sorts?) The Register points out some ugly incidents tied to abusive drinking by young people, and that sort of stuff needs to stop. But we can't credibly address those until we have a credible attitude toward the drinking age. How many crimes have gone unreported because the victim is afraid of getting in trouble for "underage" (sic) drinking? If I were on the council, which I'm not or ever planing to be, I'd ask for those PAULA citations broken out: 17 and under minors vs. 18-20 ADULTS. Every time this comes up, I want to hear someone on the council saying "This is a bad law that should be changed." The council met a couple months back to discuss legislative priorities. Where was the drinking age? Nowhere. I'm not quite to the point of calling for the city to commit civic disobedience and stop enforcing this law; nullification is an ugly legal ground with an ugly history. What I am looking for is public statements, I'm looking for lobbying the legislature. I've helped a lot of city candidates in the past and overlooked differences on alcohol issues. I'm not going to do so in 2011. Freak Power on The Prairie candidates, call me. Bar War in Iowa City: Link |
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Links to this post Monday, November 16, 2009
Monday Miscellaneous It's Sarah Palin week and while far too many bytes have been wasted here's a couple takes worth reading: The problem with populism is not just that it stirs prejudice against the "big cities" where most Americans actually live, or against the academies where many of them would like to send their children. No, the difficulty with populism is that it exploits the very "people" to whose grievances it claims to give vent... Much like Reagan, or closer to home in that same era our own resrugent Terry Branstad. |
email jdeethATmchsi.com
Deeth is also a political activist in Johnson County and the Democratic Party, and ran for the Iowa legislature in 1996. The John Deeth Blog, recently listed as one of the top state-level political blogs by the Washington Post, has been published since Dec. 31, 2002. John's writing interests include electoral politics in general and Iowa politics in particular, popular music and culture, and technology. John lives in Iowa City, Iowa, with his wife Koni Steele, their sons Hayden and Ethan, and their cats. Their family also includes their daughter Jimiya and grandson Elias. Subscribe (Bloglines) Subscribe (FeedBlitz) XML | Front page | Old Site Recent Rants: Blogrolling.com: out of order |
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