Wednesday, January 11, 2017

How Johnson County Went Democratic For The 14th Time In A Row Since LBJ

(Not Quite The Same Way It Did Last Time)

Donald Trump's Dubuque County win in November leaves Johnson County as the Iowa county with the longest continuous Democratic presidential winning streak, back to LBJ vs. Goldwater in 1964. When I researched that years ago, I wasn't surprised by Ike, but I was surprised that despite a strong Irish Catholic Democrat heritage, Johnson County picked Nixon over JFK in the last GOP win.

I thought people were tired of November election numbers, until Pat Rynard at Iowa Starting Line did an epic, precinct-level post,  "How Dubuque County Went Republican For The 1st Time Since Eisenhower," last week. After that I threatened to do the same for Johnson County, and no one told me not to. So I'm blatantly stealing Pat's idea and format and replacing Dubuque's numbers with Iowa City's.


Dubuque Co. 2016 2016% 2012 2012% Vote Diff % Diff
Trump/Romney 23,460 47.20% 21,280 41.80% 2,180 5.40%
Clinton/Obama 22,850 46.00% 28,768 56.50% -5,918 -10.60%
Stein 379 0.80% 111 0.20% 268 0.50%
Johnson 2,013 4.00% 438 0.90% 1,575 3.20%
Other 1,019 2.00% 297 0.60% 722 1.50%
Total 49,721 50,894 -1,173
Johnson Co. 2016 2016% 2012 2012% Vote Diff % Diff
Trump/Romney 21044 27.35% 23698 31.19% -2,654 -3.84%
Clinton/Obama 50200 65.25% 50666 66.69% -466 -1.44%
Stein 878 1.14% 333 0.44% 545 0.70%
Johnson 2758 3.58% 846 1.11% 1,912 2.47%
Other 2060 2.68% 434 0.57% 1,626 2.11%
Total 77,476 76,199 1,277

At first, I thought this would be a lot of number crunching for not much insight. I had dismissed the local results as Johnson County Normal - a slight drop for Hillary, a bigger drop for Donald, and a slightly larger Democratic margin than Obama won over Romney.

But the closer I looked, the more I saw national and state level patterns mirrored close to home. The results seem to not be so much More Of The Same as they are multiple trends in different directions that came very close to balancing out.

Pat split Dubuque city into four chunks and looked at the rest of the county as a whole. I broke slightly bigger Iowa City into five. I also broke out Coralville, North Liberty, and I split the rural part of the county into two. (Polling places listed may vary as we moved some precincts between 2012 and 2016).

Let's start by looking at the two parts of Iowa City that people think of when they think "Iowa City."

Campus and Downtown

Precincts 3 and 5 are dorm-dominated; 3 also has a chunk of neighborhood and an apartment chunk of mostly med students. 19 is almost entirely student apartments. 11 and 20 are mainly student apartments though 11 has a chunk of working class neighborhood (where I live) and 20 has a couple senior buildings. Those are the five traditional "student" precincts. 13 has trended student since the construction of the Hawks Ridge apartment complex - though in a retrospective edit, I see that I should have grouped it somewhere else.

2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC03 Petersen 551 33.39% 967 58.61% 19 1.15% 87 5.27% 26 1.58% 1,657
IC05 UI Library 455 24.70% 1,252 67.97% 16 0.87% 86 4.67% 33 1.79% 1,847
IC11 UI Library 409 25.79% 1,041 65.64% 26 1.64% 79 4.98% 31 1.95% 1,588
IC13 Hawks Ridge 238 17.80% 977 73.07% 27 2.02% 52 3.89% 43 3.22% 1,349
IC19 Rec Center 334 23.16% 959 66.50% 26 1.80% 89 6.17% 34 2.36% 1,442
IC20 Senior Center 343 20.64% 1,183 71.18% 29 1.74% 71 4.27% 36 2.17% 1,666
Campus subtotal 2,330 24.40% 6,379 66.80% 143 1.50% 464 4.86% 203 2.13% 9,549
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC03 Quad 565 35.01% 1,000 61.96% 5 0.31% 29 1.80% 15 0.93% 1,614
IC05 UI Library 539 32.28% 1,075 64.37% 4 0.24% 39 2.34% 13 0.78% 1,672
IC11 Courthouse 591 33.93% 1,090 62.57% 10 0.57% 39 2.24% 12 0.69% 1,747
IC13 City Transit 296 20.86% 1,079 76.04% 8 0.56% 30 2.11% 6 0.42% 1,423
IC19 Rec Center 429 28.81% 994 66.76% 11 0.74% 36 2.42% 19 1.28% 1,490
IC20 Senior Center 504 28.97% 1,179 67.76% 17 0.98% 33 1.90% 7 0.40% 1,741
Campus subtotal 2,924 30.18% 6,417 66.24% 55 0.57% 206 2.13% 72 0.74% 9,687
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
IC03 Petersen -14 -33 14 58 11 43
IC05 UI Library -84 177 12 47 20 175
IC11 UI Library -182 -49 16 40 19 -159
IC13 Hawks Ridge -58 -102 19 22 37 -74
IC19 Rec Center -95 -35 15 53 15 -48
IC20 Senior Center -161 4 12 38 29 -75
Campus subtotal -594 -38 88 258 131 -138
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
IC03 Petersen -1.61% -3.35% 0.84% 3.48% 0.65% 1.74%
IC05 UI Library -7.57% 3.60% 0.63% 2.33% 1.01% -11.17%
IC11 UI Library -8.14% 3.07% 1.07% 2.74% 1.27% -11.20%
IC13 Hawks Ridge -3.06% -2.97% 1.46% 1.78% 2.79% -0.09%
IC19 Rec Center -5.65% -0.25% 1.06% 3.75% 1.08% -5.40%
IC20 Senior Center -8.33% 3.42% 0.77% 2.38% 1.76% -11.75%
Campus subtotal -5.78% 0.56% 0.93% 2.73% 1.38% -6.34%

These were heavy Bernie precincts at caucus time, and note a slight turnout drop in the off-campus precincts and a more than doubling of the third party vote share. (Over 1 percent of the Johnson County vote, more than 900 people, was on the write-in line, up from just 60 votes as recently as 2004.) But the drop was only slight, and the tend was toward the Democrats - or, more accurately, away from Trump.

Interestingly, precinct 3 had one of the lowest Hillary percentages in the city, and actually trended slightly to Trump, but the very similar precinct 5 performed more like 2012 and shifted 11 points toward the Democrats. I have no explanation as to why the two dorm precincts behaved so differently; perhaps a younger reader who knows more about residence life can help.

Precinct 13 has the highest Democratic score here, and also has the highest non-student percentage. As I so often note, it's not undergrads that make Iowa City, or any other college town, a liberal island of blue. Undergrads still tend to follow parental political cues. No, it's grad students and faculty and staff who make college towns liberal, and they live in...

The People's Republic

These three precincts are historically the most Democratic in the county. It barely even makes sense to make a walking list, because you'll get a Democrat at every door.

In 2000, Ralph Nader edged George W. Bush for second place in north side precinct 21, and 21 usually fights with Longfellow neighborhood 18 for bragging rights. Precinct 17, which voted at City High till this year (handicapped accessibility requirements made it impossible to stay) usually has a slightly lower percentage but has the biggest Democratic vote totals.

These areas were also strong for Sanders at caucus time, but not as overwhelmingly as the youth-dominated student precincts. The fundamental divide between Sanders and Clinton was pragmatism vs. realism...


2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC17 Our Redeemer 260 13.32% 1,568 80.33% 40 2.05% 36 1.84% 48 2.46% 1,963
IC18 Longfellow 191 10.71% 1,471 82.46% 36 2.02% 42 2.35% 44 2.47% 1,791
IC21 Horace Mann 226 13.78% 1,286 78.41% 40 2.44% 52 3.17% 36 2.20% 1,646
Lefty subtotal 677 12.54% 4,325 80.09% 116 2.15% 130 2.41% 128 2.37% 5,400
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC17 City High 363 18.34% 1,541 77.87% 30 1.52% 34 1.72% 11 0.56% 1,983
IC18 Longfellow 260 13.54% 1,595 83.07% 17 0.89% 35 1.82% 13 0.68% 1,922
IC21 Horace Mann 335 19.15% 1,340 76.62% 21 1.20% 38 2.17% 15 0.86% 1,752
Lefty subtotal 958 16.93% 4,476 79.12% 68 1.20% 107 1.89% 39 0.69% 5,657
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
IC17 Our Redeemer -103 27 10 2 37 -20
IC18 Longfellow -69 -124 19 7 31 -131
IC21 Horace Mann -109 -54 19 14 21 -106
Lefty subtotal -281 -151 48 23 89 -257
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
IC17 Our Redeemer -5.02% 2.46% 0.53% 0.13% 1.90% -7.48%
IC18 Longfellow -2.84% -0.62% 1.13% 0.53% 1.79% -2.22%
IC21 Horace Mann -5.37% 1.80% 1.24% 1.00% 1.34% -7.17%
Lefty subtotal -4.40% 0.97% 0.95% 0.52% 1.68% -5.37%

...and we see that gain in the general where the trend to Johnson and Stein was lower than in the student neighborhoods. However, the trend to Other was just as strong as with the students, and turnout was also down a little more here.

In precincts 17 and 21, we see both trends away from Trump and toward Hillary. Precinct 18 didn't trend away from Trump as much, but that may be because they were already close to rock bottom for Romney. Despite a slight drop, 18 had the highest Hillary percentage in the county. These are about the biggest Democratic percentages you'll see anywhere in America outside of majority-minority parts of big cities.

The South/Southeast side

Iowa City's southeast side is an odd mix: trailer courts and big non-student working class apartments, interlaced with empty nesters who are not happy about Those People From Chicago. Iowa City, especially this area, has seen a noticeable black in-migration in the past 15 to 20 years, and also has a growing Hispanic population centered in these precincts. Included for demographic sake are two trailer-dominated "rural" precincts, Scott and West Lucas townships.


2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC10 Trueblood 322 24.30% 918 69.28% 14 1.06% 34 2.57% 37 2.79% 1,338
IC12 Grant Wood 281 18.34% 1,131 73.83% 21 1.37% 56 3.66% 43 2.81% 1,542
IC14 Mark Twain 204 14.32% 1,108 77.75% 27 1.89% 43 3.02% 43 3.02% 1,431
IC15 Tate 174 18.26% 685 71.88% 29 3.04% 38 3.99% 27 2.83% 963
SC Scott 306 32.90% 569 61.18% 11 1.18% 28 3.01% 16 1.72% 937
WL West Lucas 194 30.22% 405 63.08% 15 2.34% 11 1.71% 17 2.65% 646
south subtotal 1,481 21.60% 4,816 70.23% 117 1.71% 210 3.06% 183 2.67% 6,857
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC10 City Parks 312 24.66% 927 73.28% 5 0.40% 16 1.26% 5 0.40% 1,273
IC12 Grant Wood 314 20.52% 1,184 77.39% 6 0.39% 12 0.78% 14 0.92% 1,538
IC14 Mark Twain 259 17.13% 1,219 80.62% 13 0.86% 9 0.60% 12 0.79% 1,523
IC15 Tate 247 20.36% 943 77.74% 8 0.66% 10 0.82% 5 0.41% 1,219
SC Scott 352 35.20% 630 63.00% 6 0.60% 7 0.70% 5 0.50% 1,007
WL West Lucas 203 28.12% 511 70.78% 3 0.42% 2 0.28% 3 0.42% 730
south subtotal 1,687 23.14% 5,414 74.27% 41 0.56% 56 0.77% 44 0.60% 7,290
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
IC10 Trueblood 10 -9 9 18 32 65
IC12 Grant Wood -33 -53 15 44 29 4
IC14 Mark Twain -55 -111 14 34 31 -92
IC15 Tate -73 -258 21 28 22 -256
SC Scott -46 -61 5 21 11 -70
WL West Lucas -9 -106 12 9 14 -84
south subtotal -206 -598 76 154 139 -433
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
IC10 Trueblood -0.36% -4.00% 0.66% 1.30% 2.40% 3.64%
IC12 Grant Wood -2.18% -3.56% 0.98% 2.87% 1.89% 1.38%
IC14 Mark Twain -2.81% -2.87% 1.03% 2.42% 2.22% 0.05%
IC15 Tate -2.10% -5.86% 2.38% 3.16% 2.42% 3.76%
SC Scott -2.30% -1.82% 0.58% 2.31% 1.22% -0.48%
WL West Lucas 2.10% -7.69% 1.92% 1.44% 2.23% 9.79%
south subtotal -1.54% -4.03% 1.14% 2.29% 2.07% 2.49%


Precinct 10 doesn't quite fit here; new owner-occupied homes make this the one precinct in the area with a turnout increase. And you can see that Scott and West Lucas still have some rural voters. But 14 and to a lesser extent precinct 12 and (because of high third party totals including Stein's top score at 3% ) precinct 15 rival even the lefty heartland with their percentages;  would have been nice to have gotten more voters out of here.

Most of the turnout drop here is in one precinct, 15. The "redevelopment" of the Rose Oaks apartments (formerly and locally known as Lakeside) uprooted a lot of people. There may also have been a dip in black turnout without Barack Obama on the ballot, but racial voting data isn't available in Iowa.

East Side

Now we're starting to get into "townie" Iowa City. There are apartments here and there but most of these voters are homeowners in long-established neighborhoods. Precinct 6 has large senior complexes. Precinct 22 has some new homes in the Peninsula neighborhood and the only population of students here, at the Mayflower dorm. (I tried really hard to fix that in reprecincting and couldn't.) Precinct 24 is dominated by the relatively new and high income Windsor Ridge development.

These voters are not usually left wing in local elections, but are solidly Democratic at the top of the ticket.


2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC01 Lemme 439 22.15% 1,442 72.75% 10 0.50% 34 1.72% 57 2.88% 1,997
IC06 Mercer 364 19.65% 1,358 73.33% 23 1.24% 52 2.81% 55 2.97% 1,869
IC16 Mercer 247 14.71% 1,321 78.68% 27 1.61% 39 2.32% 45 2.68% 1,695
IC22 Shimek 319 21.92% 1,042 71.62% 15 1.03% 42 2.89% 37 2.54% 1,466
IC23 ICCSD 372 18.60% 1,488 74.40% 27 1.35% 53 2.65% 60 3.00% 2,015
IC24 St. Patrick 547 26.26% 1,388 66.63% 18 0.86% 68 3.26% 62 2.98% 2,113
east subtotal 2,288 20.51% 8,039 72.07% 120 1.08% 288 2.58% 316 2.83% 11,155
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC01 Lemme 535 27.88% 1,361 70.92% 2 0.10% 15 0.78% 6 0.31% 1,924
IC06 Mercer 513 26.76% 1,367 71.31% 12 0.63% 15 0.78% 10 0.52% 1,924
IC16 Lucas 336 19.48% 1,353 78.43% 9 0.52% 18 1.04% 9 0.52% 1,731
IC22 Shimek 349 23.97% 1,079 74.11% 6 0.41% 15 1.03% 7 0.48% 1,458
IC23 Regina 525 25.61% 1,486 72.49% 14 0.68% 12 0.59% 13 0.63% 2,054
IC24 St. Patrick 696 38.16% 1,111 60.91% 3 0.16% 10 0.55% 4 0.22% 1,828
east subtotal 2,954 27.05% 7,757 71.04% 46 0.42% 85 0.78% 49 0.45% 10,919
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
IC01 Lemme -96 81 8 19 51 73
IC06 Mercer -149 -9 11 37 45 -55
IC16 Mercer -89 -32 18 21 36 -36
IC22 Shimek -30 -37 9 27 30 8
IC23 ICCSD -153 2 13 41 47 -39
IC24 St. Patrick -149 277 15 58 58 285
east subtotal -666 282 74 203 267 236
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
IC01 Lemme -5.73% 1.83% 0.40% 0.93% 2.56% -7.56%
IC06 Mercer -7.11% 2.02% 0.62% 2.03% 2.45% -9.12%
IC16 Mercer -4.77% 0.24% 1.09% 1.28% 2.16% -5.01%
IC22 Shimek -2.05% -2.49% 0.62% 1.86% 2.06% 0.45%
IC23 ICCSD -7.01% 1.91% 0.67% 2.06% 2.37% -8.92%
IC24 St. Patrick -11.90% 5.72% 0.70% 2.72% 2.76% -17.62%
east subtotal -6.54% 1.03% 0.65% 1.80% 2.38% -7.57%

And here we see outright revulsion at Trump, with a 17 point Democratic swing in precinct 24 and 9 point swings in 6 and 23. Most of this seems to be against Trump - note the giant spikes in the Johnson and Other vote, and I'm thinking that's McMullin or that's non-Trump GOP write-ins. Except in precinct 24, where Hillary ran almost 6 points ahead of Obama. The growth also means 24 accounted for most of the east side's turnout increase. (There's also one new subdivision in precinct 1.)

Granted, the "suburban" parts of Iowa City are a lot more Democratic that, say, Dallas County. But this is a Never Trump trend we saw nationally in similar places and which I expected, before Election Night, would be the big story of 2016.

West Side

There's a lot of similarity to the east side here, with Kennedy Parkway in precinct 7 taking the place of Windsor Ridge and Oaknoll in precinct 2 more than taking the place of the senior complexes in precinct 6. Precinct 4 is mostly the doctor/professor dominated very old neighborhood, Manville Heights; the enclaved speed trap University Heights has a similar feel.

But there's a few wild cards here. Precinct 4 also has a chunk of Frat Row, and there's a low income area split between 7 and 9 that includes a large and politically active Sudanese community. These are the voters I saw bringing their passports with them to vote as if to assert "I AM an American."

2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC02 Horn 349 20.70% 1,208 71.65% 23 1.36% 55 3.26% 51 3.02% 1,707
IC04 Art 273 16.28% 1,309 78.06% 15 0.89% 59 3.52% 21 1.25% 1,688
IC07 West High 294 20.99% 1,016 72.52% 9 0.64% 48 3.43% 34 2.43% 1,413
IC08 Weber  437 24.69% 1,219 68.87% 11 0.62% 49 2.77% 54 3.05% 1,782
IC09 Hall of Fame 306 18.75% 1,188 72.79% 25 1.53% 52 3.19% 61 3.74% 1,642
UH University Heights 142 19.86% 527 73.71% 4 0.56% 23 3.22% 19 2.66% 720
West Subtotal 1,801 20.12% 6,467 72.24% 87 0.97% 286 3.19% 240 2.68% 8,952
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
IC02 Horn 531 29.57% 1,228 68.37% 6 0.33% 18 1.00% 13 0.72% 1,800
IC04 Lincoln 345 23.03% 1,130 75.43% 7 0.47% 9 0.60% 7 0.47% 1,499
IC07 West High 347 27.92% 872 70.15% 6 0.48% 10 0.80% 8 0.64% 1,248
IC08 Weber School 612 35.79% 1,085 63.45% 2 0.12% 7 0.41% 4 0.23% 1,715
IC09 Hall of Fame 430 25.10% 1,246 72.74% 7 0.41% 21 1.23% 9 0.53% 1,720
UH University Heights 233 30.14% 531 68.69% 2 0.26% 4 0.52% 3 0.39% 774
West Subtotal 2,498 28.53% 6,092 69.58% 30 0.34% 69 0.79% 44 0.50% 8,756
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
IC02 Horn -182 -20 17 37 38 -93
IC04 Art -72 179 8 50 14 189
IC07 West High -53 144 3 38 26 165
IC08 Weber  -175 134 9 42 50 67
IC09 Hall of Fame -124 -58 18 31 52 -78
UH University Heights -91 -4 2 19 16 -54
West Subtotal -697 375 57 217 196 196
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
IC02 Horn -8.87% 3.27% 1.03% 2.26% 2.30% -12.14%
IC04 Art -6.75% 2.62% 0.43% 2.92% 0.78% -9.37%
IC07 West High -6.93% 2.37% 0.16% 2.62% 1.78% -9.30%
IC08 Weber  -11.10% 5.42% 0.50% 2.36% 2.82% -16.52%
IC09 Hall of Fame -6.35% 0.06% 1.12% 1.96% 3.21% -6.41%
UH University Heights -10.28% 5.01% 0.30% 2.70% 2.27% -15.30%
West Subtotal -8.41% 2.67% 0.63% 2.41% 2.18% -11.08%

The west side shifted even more Democratic than the east - 11 points overall including a whopping 16.5% in precinct 8. The difference seems to be more of a trend toward Hillary, on top of the anti-Trump shift. But again, big spikes for Johnson, Other, and also Stein here.

Big surprise here: the turnout drop in precinct 2, despite heavy turnout civically engaged Oaknoll (site of the one successful satellite caucus in the state) opening a large new wing since 2012. I can't account for that; most of the student apartments on West Benton are in precinct 13, not 2. (Having already cut the turf, I see now that precinct 13 fits better here than it did in the student precincts.)

Coralville

Demographically there's really two Coralvilles. South Coralville (precinct 1, 4, and 5) is mostly older homes and apartments. North Coralville (precincts 2, 6, 7 and the demographically similar Penn Township) has bigger and newer homes and more money. Precinct 3 doesn't quite fit either; it's dominated by the Coral Court apartment complex and the Western Hills trailer court (where registration has been in decline).

2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
CV01 Library 304 19.86% 1,095 71.52% 22 1.44% 65 4.25% 45 2.92% 1,541
CV02 Brown Deer 459 29.18% 990 62.94% 13 0.83% 53 3.37% 58 3.66% 1,586
CV03 Hygienic Lab 272 28.39% 615 64.20% 8 0.84% 33 3.44% 30 3.11% 966
CV04 City Hall 208 18.31% 838 73.77% 14 1.23% 39 3.43% 37 3.23% 1,145
CV05 NW Jr High 262 20.58% 926 72.74% 9 0.71% 41 3.22% 35 2.73% 1,280
CV06 Wickham 576 30.72% 1,181 62.99% 9 0.48% 66 3.52% 43 2.28% 1,887
CV07 North Ridge 371 23.74% 1,072 68.59% 18 1.15% 45 2.88% 57 3.65% 1,582
PN Penn Twp 596 30.94% 1,210 62.82% 12 0.62% 67 3.48% 41 2.13% 1,948
Coralville subtotal 3,048 25.54% 7,927 66.42% 105 0.88% 409 3.43% 346 2.90% 11,935
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
CV01 Central 344 24.01% 1,031 71.95% 10 0.70% 36 2.51% 12 0.84% 1,442
CV02 Grant Wood AEA 587 36.69% 972 60.75% 8 0.50% 21 1.31% 12 0.75% 1,602
CV03 Hygienic Lab 287 31.82% 604 66.96% 0 0.00% 6 0.67% 5 0.55% 902
CV04 Rec Center 265 20.35% 996 76.50% 8 0.61% 16 1.23% 17 1.31% 1,309
CV05 NW Jr High 344 25.29% 977 71.84% 10 0.74% 21 1.54% 8 0.59% 1,363
CV06 Wickham 752 43.62% 957 55.51% 4 0.23% 7 0.41% 4 0.23% 1,724
CV07 Northridge 459 28.72% 1,102 68.96% 7 0.44% 21 1.31% 9 0.56% 1,600
PN Penn Twp 715 36.46% 1,223 62.37% 5 0.25% 13 0.66% 5 0.25% 1,965
Coralville subtotal 3,753 31.52% 7,862 66.03% 52 0.44% 141 1.18% 72 0.60% 11,907
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
CV01 Library -40 64 12 29 33 99
CV02 Brown Deer -128 18 5 32 46 -16
CV03 Hygienic Lab -15 11 8 27 25 64
CV04 City Hall -57 -158 6 23 20 -164
CV05 NW Jr High -82 -51 -1 20 27 -83
CV06 Wickham -176 224 5 59 39 163
CV07 North Ridge -88 -30 11 24 48 -18
PN Penn Twp -119 -13 7 54 36 -17
Coralville subtotal -705 65 53 268 274 28
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
CV01 Library -4.15% -0.43% 0.74% 1.73% 2.10% -3.72%
CV02 Brown Deer -7.51% 2.19% 0.33% 2.06% 2.94% -9.69%
CV03 Hygienic Lab -3.43% -2.77% 0.84% 2.78% 2.58% -0.66%
CV04 City Hall -2.04% -2.73% 0.62% 2.20% 1.95% 0.69%
CV05 NW Jr High -4.71% 0.90% -0.03% 1.68% 2.16% -5.62%
CV06 Wickham -12.90% 7.48% 0.25% 3.11% 2.06% -20.38%
CV07 North Ridge -4.99% -0.38% 0.71% 1.56% 3.08% -4.61%
PN Penn Twp -5.52% 0.46% 0.37% 2.82% 1.87% -5.97%
Coralville subtotal -5.98% 0.39% 0.44% 2.24% 2.29% -6.37%

We get a very mixed set of data from Coralville. Turnout was almost identical but it was a matter of counter-trends. Overall Hillary's percentage narrowly tops Obama's while Trump drops six points.

I'd say that shift was toward the third parties... but it isn't, because it isn't consistent across precincts. The big story here is precinct 6 with a 7.5% Hillary gain that more than accounts for her area-wide gain, and a massive 20 point shift to the Democrats.

North Liberty and Tiffin

This is some of the fastest growing turf in the state and it was the scene of the one significantly contested local race, in open House District 77 where North Liberty mayor Amy Nielsen beat a strong for Johnson County GOP candidate, former Tiffin mayor Royce Phillips.

North Liberty isn't any more of a monolith than Coralville is, yet we get an even more precise example of trends counter-balancing.

2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
CC Tiffin 617 37.51% 898 54.59% 20 1.22% 76 4.62% 34 2.07% 1,654
NL01 Rec Center 447 30.79% 873 60.12% 11 0.76% 62 4.27% 59 4.06% 1,458
NL02 Garner 446 31.45% 847 59.73% 7 0.49% 72 5.08% 46 3.24% 1,430
NL03 South Slope 618 32.79% 1,056 56.02% 17 0.90% 122 6.47% 72 3.82% 1,896
NL04 North Central 352 27.80% 812 64.14% 14 1.11% 50 3.95% 38 3.00% 1,279
NL05 Rec Center 337 27.85% 762 62.98% 13 1.07% 59 4.88% 39 3.22% 1,216
NL06-MD UICCU 867 37.00% 1,258 53.69% 22 0.94% 128 5.46% 68 2.90% 2,351
NL/Tiffin subtotal 3,684 32.65% 6,506 57.66% 104 0.92% 569 5.04% 356 3.15% 11,284
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
CC Tiffin 477 36.47% 804 61.47% 3 0.23% 17 1.30% 7 0.54% 1,313
NL01 NL Comm Center 502 37.46% 821 61.27% 0 0.00% 11 0.82% 6 0.45% 1,341
NL02 Garner 497 36.54% 849 62.43% 2 0.15% 7 0.51% 5 0.37% 1,366
NL03 South Slope 603 39.62% 890 58.48% 5 0.33% 20 1.31% 4 0.26% 1,524
NL04 North Central 359 27.94% 904 70.35% 1 0.08% 8 0.62% 13 1.01% 1,292
NL05 NL Comm Center 459 34.85% 837 63.55% 1 0.08% 12 0.91% 8 0.61% 1,320
NL06-MD North Bend 787 40.73% 1,102 57.04% 5 0.26% 28 1.45% 10 0.52% 1,934
NL/Tiffin subtotal 3,684 36.51% 6,207 61.52% 17 0.17% 103 1.02% 53 0.53% 10,090
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
CC Tiffin 140 94 17 59 27 341
NL01 Rec Center -55 52 11 51 53 117
NL02 Garner -51 -2 5 65 41 64
NL03 South Slope 15 166 12 102 68 372
NL04 North Central -7 -92 13 42 25 -13
NL05 Rec Center -122 -75 12 47 31 -104
NL06-MD UICCU 80 156 17 100 58 417
NL/Tiffin subtotal 0 299 87 466 303 1,194
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
CC Tiffin 1.04% -6.88% 0.99% 3.32% 1.53% 7.92%
NL01 Rec Center -6.68% -1.14% 0.76% 3.45% 3.62% -5.53%
NL02 Garner -5.09% -2.69% 0.35% 4.56% 2.88% -2.40%
NL03 South Slope -6.83% -2.45% 0.57% 5.16% 3.56% -4.38%
NL04 North Central -0.13% -6.21% 1.03% 3.33% 1.99% 6.08%
NL05 Rec Center -7.00% -0.58% 1.00% 3.96% 2.62% -6.42%
NL06-MD UICCU -3.73% -3.35% 0.68% 4.01% 2.38% -0.38%
NL/Tiffin subtotal -3.86% -3.86% 0.75% 4.02% 2.63% 0.00%

I thought I made a spreadsheet error so I checked again and yes, Trump and Clinton's losses compared to Romney and Obama exactly balanced out in North Liberty and Tiffin for zero net percentage change. With both major party candidates losing nearly four points, that of course means a massive jump in third party votes. That's not entirely a shock; high growth areas tend to be less politically established and less rooted to tradition. North Liberty 3 topped 11 percent 3rd party. (Tangent: the four precincts with the highest non-two party vote were all demographically different: high income high growth North Liberty 3, student precinct Iowa City 19, southeast side Iowa City 15, and small town Hills.)

Tiffin, which is a couple decades closer to its rural roots than North Liberty, trended away from Clinton. So did trailer court dominated North Liberty 4.  That was counter-balanced by anti-Trump trends in precincts 1 and 5 which are slightly older development, though nothing's very old out here. Precinct 5 actually saw a drop in total voters. That area is built out, perhaps indicating that the overall North Liberty turnout increase was caused more by growth than by increased interest.

The Greater Solon Metropolitan Area

Rural Johnson County doesn't divide neatly so I split it into two. 

Even the most casual local observers have seen a GOP trend in northeast Johnson County, and the sage of Solon Paul Deaton has written about it extensively. Most of this turf is in Republican Bobby Kaufmann's legislative district; he's worked this area hard and went without opposition this cycle.

Demographically most of this is high growth turf including Swisher and Shueyville (in Nielsen's district, not Kaufmann's) which are oriented as much toward Cedar Rapids as Iowa City. Outside the town there are a lot of big houses with couples commuting in opposite directions.

2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
BG Big Grove 575 48.94% 529 45.02% 3 0.26% 42 3.57% 26 2.21% 1,187
CE Cedar 191 53.35% 144 40.22% 1 0.28% 10 2.79% 12 3.35% 358
GR Graham 122 37.65% 185 57.10% 3 0.93% 8 2.47% 6 1.85% 325
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville 813 51.10% 676 42.49% 10 0.63% 59 3.71% 33 2.07% 1,594
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher 745 51.13% 639 43.86% 6 0.41% 31 2.13% 36 2.47% 1,464
NP Newport 580 36.64% 898 56.73% 14 0.88% 41 2.59% 50 3.16% 1,595
SO Solon city 612 43.87% 688 49.32% 11 0.79% 51 3.66% 33 2.37% 1,410
Metro Solon subtotal 3,638 45.86% 3,759 47.38% 48 0.61% 242 3.05% 196 2.47% 7,933
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
BG Big Grove 551 49.33% 555 49.69% 1 0.09% 7 0.63% 3 0.27% 1,123
CE Cedar 151 42.78% 198 56.09% 0 0.00% 2 0.57% 2 0.57% 353
GR Graham 107 35.43% 187 61.92% 2 0.66% 2 0.66% 4 1.32% 302
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville 841 53.81% 699 44.72% 4 0.26% 10 0.64% 9 0.58% 1,568
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher 702 48.58% 735 50.87% 0 0.00% 6 0.42% 2 0.14% 1,451
NP Newport 646 40.38% 936 58.50% 1 0.06% 10 0.63% 7 0.44% 1,603
SO Solon city 447 37.91% 715 60.64% 4 0.34% 7 0.59% 6 0.51% 1,184
Metro Solon subtotal 3,445 45.42% 4,025 53.07% 12 0.16% 44 0.58% 33 0.44% 7,584
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
BG Big Grove 24 -26 2 35 23 64
CE Cedar 40 -54 1 8 10 5
GR Graham 15 -2 1 6 2 23
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville -28 -23 6 49 24 26
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher 43 -96 6 25 34 13
NP Newport -66 -38 13 31 43 -8
SO Solon city 165 -27 7 44 27 226
Metro Solon subtotal 193 -266 36 198 163 349
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
BG Big Grove -0.39% -4.67% 0.17% 2.95% 1.94% 4.27%
CE Cedar 10.58% -15.87% 0.28% 2.23% 2.79% 26.44%
GR Graham 2.22% -4.82% 0.26% 1.81% 0.53% 7.05%
JE Jefferson E.-Shueyville -2.71% -2.23% 0.37% 3.07% 1.50% -0.47%
JW Jefferson W.-Swisher 2.55% -7.01% 0.41% 1.71% 2.33% 9.56%
NP Newport -3.74% -1.77% 0.82% 1.97% 2.72% -1.96%
SO Solon city 5.96% -11.33% 0.45% 3.06% 1.86% 17.28%
Metro Solon subtotal 0.43% -5.69% 0.45% 2.47% 2.04% 6.12%

Here for the first time we see actual Trump wins. Romney carried only Shueyville; Trump adds Swisher, Big Grove (the rural area immediately surrounding Solon city) and rural Cedar Township (the greater metropolitan Sutliff area), and holds Hillary under 50% in Solon.

Demographic question I can't figure out: Cedar used to vote as Democratic as the very similar Graham Township (greater metropolitan Morse). Graham has stayed blue while Cedar has turned red in a big way with a 26 point shift to Trump.

And Graham seems to be a major anomaly here. These areas seem to be far enough out that the suburban Never Trump trend is overwhelmed by the exurban and rural Never Hillary tend. 

Turnout is up, more due to growth than interest. The exception is Newport which may actually be a rare case where a hot legislative race in 2012 got people out more than president did. Newport is also closer to Iowa City and sees a small gain in Democratic margin

Rural Rural Johnson County

The North Corridor precincts we just looked at are mostly suburban, but the final chunk of the county is where the farms and true small towns are. And as elsewhere in Iowa and the  nation, the Democrats got our asses handed to us here.

2016 Trump Clinton Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
FR Lone Tree area 519 49.10% 465 43.99% 10 0.95% 46 4.35% 17 1.61% 1,063
HD Hardin (Cosgrove) 171 49.57% 153 44.35% 0 0.00% 13 3.77% 8 2.32% 348
HS Hills city 165 35.48% 256 55.05% 5 1.08% 27 5.81% 12 2.58% 469
LB rural Hills 175 45.10% 197 50.77% 3 0.77% 10 2.58% 3 0.77% 393
OX Oxford 396 47.65% 373 44.89% 11 1.32% 33 3.97% 18 2.17% 839
SN Sharon 201 55.83% 139 38.61% 1 0.28% 5 1.39% 14 3.89% 364
UN Union 189 44.47% 226 53.18% 3 0.71% 6 1.41% 1 0.24% 430
WS Washington 281 56.43% 173 34.74% 5 1.00% 20 4.02% 19 3.82% 505
Rural Rural subtotal 2,097 47.54% 1,982 44.93% 38 0.86% 160 3.63% 92 2.09% 4,411
2012 Romney Obama Stein Johnson Other Total Votes
FR Lone Tree area 399 40.02% 582 58.38% 4 0.40% 9 0.90% 3 0.30% 1,001
HD Hardin (Cosgrove) 145 44.75% 173 53.40% 2 0.62% 2 0.62% 2 0.62% 329
HS Hills city 140 31.11% 294 65.33% 2 0.44% 11 2.44% 3 0.67% 452
LB rural Hills 157 40.89% 223 58.07% 0 0.00% 2 0.52% 2 0.52% 387
OX Oxford 304 35.56% 539 63.04% 1 0.12% 5 0.58% 6 0.70% 857
SN Sharon 208 57.14% 150 41.21% 2 0.55% 2 0.55% 2 0.55% 367
UN Union 180 41.57% 248 57.27% 1 0.23% 2 0.46% 2 0.46% 436
WS Washington 262 54.70% 207 43.22% 0 0.00% 2 0.42% 8 1.67% 480
Rural Rural subtotal 1,795 41.66% 2,416 56.07% 12 0.28% 35 0.81% 28 0.65% 4,309
2016 vs 2012 votes Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Total Votes
FR Lone Tree area 120 -117 6 37 14 62
HD Hardin (Cosgrove) 26 -20 -2 11 6 19
HS Hills city 25 -38 3 16 9 17
LB rural Hills 18 -26 3 8 1 6
OX Oxford 92 -166 10 28 12 -18
SN Sharon -7 -11 -1 3 12 -3
UN Union 9 -22 2 4 -1 -6
WS Washington 19 -34 5 18 11 25
Rural Rural subtotal 302 -434 26 125 64 102
2016 vs 2012 % Trump vs Romney Clinton vs Obama Stein 16 vs 12 Johnson 16 vs 12 Other 16 Vs 12 Net R Swing
FR Lone Tree area 9.08% -14.38% 0.54% 3.45% 1.31% 23.46%
HD Hardin (Cosgrove) 4.81% -9.05% -0.62% 3.15% 1.70% 13.86%
HS Hills city 4.37% -10.28% 0.63% 3.36% 1.91% 14.65%
LB rural Hills 4.22% -7.30% 0.77% 2.06% 0.25% 11.52%
OX Oxford 12.10% -18.16% 1.21% 3.39% 1.46% 30.25%
SN Sharon -1.31% -2.60% -0.27% 0.84% 3.34% 1.29%
UN Union 2.90% -4.10% 0.47% 0.95% -0.23% 7.00%
WS Washington 1.73% -8.48% 1.00% 3.60% 2.15% 10.20%
Rural Rural subtotal 5.88% -11.14% 0.58% 2.82% 1.44% 17.02%

Sharon and Washington townships have always voted like pieces of GOP leaning Washington County that were accidentally surveyed into the wrong county. Sharon stays almost the same but Washington sees a 8.5 point shift sway from the Democrats to third parties.  Most of this massive 17 point shift across rural rural Johnson County was anti-Clinton. Amy Nielsen didn't see similar drops in her open legislative race. The third parties jumped from very low levels to numbers approaching the rest of the county.

Trump adds Cosgrove and, with shifts of Howard County proportions, Oxford and Lone Tree to the red column. The Hills area, so ancestrally Democratic that even I won it in my Some Dude legislative race 20 years ago, stays Democratic but sees a red shift that would have seemed big back when we were looking at cities. Overall, this adds up to a Trump win in this part of the county. Turnout was up in this low-growth area, with most of the increase coming from Lone Tree.

Democrats in every part of Iowa and every part of the nation have questions about how to proceed into the Trump Era. For Johnson County, the rural question is less pressing simply because of the nature of the county. The numbers in those places are relatively small. The real issue for local Democrats is how to gain back those third party votes - both on the Never Hillary Left and the Never Trump center right - while holding on to the upper income suburban voters who defected from Trump to Clinton.