![]() |
John Deeth Blog |
| Too old to be cool, too young not to care | |
|
Monday, July 13, 2009
Palin to Campaign for Conservadems The Washington Times seems to be functioning as a GOP house organ the last couple weeks, and is tacitly acknowledging that the Republican brand is so badly damaged that the only way to elect conservatives is to... run them as Democrats? In an Exclusive with Sarah Palin, the soon to be former says: "I will go around the country on behalf of candidates who believe in the right things, regardless of their party label or affiliation," she said over lunch in her downtown office, 40 miles from her now-famous hometown of Wasilla — population 7,000 — where she began her political career. This glosses over the First Dude's time in the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party. But one interesting point is that while the headline says Palin to stump for conservative Democrats, the Palin quotes say only regardless of their party label or affiliation." Could she really mean independent or third party candidates? Is her "new calling" a new party? I'm just idly speculating here, but I'm not alone. This story of cross-party conservatism follows by a week a Times interview with Newt Gingrich, where he says, "I would urge conservatives in California to find a Democrat to run in every Assembly and Senate seat in California that can't be contested by Republicans, and then to run a Republican in every seat they could possibly win, and then have an overt goal of creating a bipartisan conservative coalition." Note that Gingrich explicity says "Democrat" and "bipartisan." Either way, these superstar conservatives are both acknowledging the damage to the GOP brand in the post-W era. We've had a lot of realignments since the 1850's, but it's been that long since a major party actually died. Perhaps the GOP will wither and the new Know-Nothings will emerge? Palin to Campaign for Conservadems: Link |
|
Links to this post
Monday clips Your blogger has been out of the loop with a family visit followed by an illness so while I get better here's some highlights from other people's writing: His biggest mistake in the past is not going into detail about the state budget, job creation ideas, health care and education reform, and any other issue that falls under the fiscal conservative banner... Over the past few months Bob has become the one issue candidate much like Tom Tancredo in the Iowa Caucus." Of course, I was the guy who was convinced Tancredo would be the breakout candidate of the caucuses, and he didn't even make it to caucus night, so what do I know? Monday clips: Link |
|
Links to this post Sunday, July 12, 2009
Unanswered question on student arrest rates This UI study, the original of which I can't find, is popping up in the slow weekend news: About 4 percent of University of Iowa students were cited or arrested for criminal offenses in Iowa City between Aug. 1, 2008 and May 20, 2009, according to a UI report. In the last academic year, 1,194 students were charged with one or more non-traffic criminal offenses in Iowa City, according to numbers gathered by the UI Student Services office. UI undergraduates had a higher rate of criminal offenses — 5.5 percent — than the overall student body. Most of the charges — 75 percent of them —were for alcohol-related violations, such as public intoxication and underage drinking. Some unanswered questions here: U Iowa student arrest rates: Link |
|
Links to this post Friday, July 10, 2009
Obama: top percentage ever in Johnson County Barack Obama fell just short of my personal goal of 70 percent in Johnson County-- 69.91 to be exact. It rounds up, so I'll take it. Obama broke the LBJ 1964 mark of 68.08 percent--but was it the best presidential result ever in the People's Republic? The answer, I've found, is a qualified yes. You can really only compare results back to 1920. For one thing, before that, only men were allowed to vote. For another, those men weren't voting for president. Iowa listed the individual electors on the ballot, and you had to cast a separate vote on each elector. (Alabama did it that way as late as 1960.) Tickets got split, intentionally or accidentally. Woodrow Wilson's 13 candidates for elector in 1916 won between 3,623 and 3,650 votes in Johnson County. So which of those is Wilson's "vote total?" ![]() Iowa was traditionally a Republican state back before Harold Hughes, with a couple brief Democratic interregnums in the Panic of 1893 and the Depression. (Such polarized terms to describe the same phenomenon: Panic and Depression.) But even that far back, Johnson County was a Democratic area and Wilson won twice. Harding and Coolidge coasted through the Republican `20s, but Al Smith made it close as two forces collided: Iowa City's Irish-Czech Catholic heritage vs. hometown boy Hoover. Hoover won the county by less than a point, our closest result ever. The FDR era was where I though Obama might have been topped. But Roosevelt peaked at 60.5 in 1932. Johnson County stayed with FDR all four times, even as Willkie and Dewey won Iowa in `40 and `44. Harry Truman held on, too (the famous whistle stop tour included a stop in Oxford) as Iowa was one of the farm states that flipped between 1944 and 1948. Ike set the county's Republican record in 1952 at 58.04, and slipped about a point in `56. And the one that really stands out: Nixon beat JFK, the last time the GOP carried the county for President and the only time we ever backed a losing Republican. The two times Nixon won, he lost Johnson County. When 18 year olds got the vote we luuuuved McGovern with 57.8 percent of our love. Republicans generally won at least 40 percent through Jerry Ford, but the last to top 40, or even 35, was Reagan in `84. Jimmy Carter dropped below 50 percent in 1980 but still won the county, as John Anderson (NOT Perot) set the modern third party peak at almost 19 percent (Fighting Bob LaFollette was a wee bit higher in 1924). Interestingly, the third highest Democratic percentage, below Obama and LBJ, was of all people Michael Dukakis. Perot cut into Clinton's percentages and Nader cut into Gore's, but 1988 was a weak third party year (sorry, Ron Paul). As for Nader, he was at 6 percent in 2000 but 90 percent of that support vanished after Florida as he was at near-identical levels in `04 and `08. The GOP low water mark was HW's 27.1 in 1992, with Perot at almost exactly one vote in six. But McCain was second worst, in an essentially two-way race, at 28.4. In fact, if you look just at two-party percentages, and ignore the 1964 spike, there's a more or less steady Republican decline from Eisenhower to the present. So that leaves Obama on top. There were no national landslides bigger than 1920 before 1920, so it's reasonably safe to call it Biggest Ever. Unless, that is, you want to calculate percentages on Abe Lincoln's individual electors. Obama top percentage ever in Johnson County: Link |
|
Links to this post Thursday, July 09, 2009
July Johnson County Democrats Here we are again, a week late from the holiday: The monthly meeting of the Johnson County Dennis Roseman DFA (Dennis for... something with an A) Democratic Party. We have about 20 people here and only two elected officials: supervisor Rod Sullivan and Rep. Nate Willems. Well, technically three: labor leader Pat Hughes is an Oxford Township trustee. Supervisor candidate Janelle Rettig is also here. The treasurer reports that the party coffers are... I don't want to say the number but low. A recent comment sums up the status of the executive board: 2nd Vice Chair (James Moody) - moving away, hasn't been to recent meetings Local political legend Gary Sanders offers a resolution urging Iowa City Council to condemn infiltration of peace group (via letter to FBI; council member Michael Wright says votes aren't there for a resolution) AND send same to local press. (Apparently last month we forgot the "press" part.) Easily passed. Caucus arrangements group set up: Roseman, vice chair Chris Forbes, and Sullivan. Anyone you can think of notably not invited to that list? Roseman notes the data and membership chair vacancies. We have a parade tomorrow in Tiffin, Sullivan notes; this is the first Roseman has heard of it and says he can't make it. Carsner and Flaherty note other upcoming parades, notice how the former chairs are the ones who know what's going on? Dennis gets more engaged with a health care update. "Policy is my thing," he says, as befits one who came up from the platform committee. That's a very different skill set than, say, get out the vote. We may not have anyone at the parades, but we'll get signatures on petitions. New finance chair Jean Falk announced that the Pioneer/awards dinner is officially off now. BBQ dates and sites still up in the air. Bone crushingly dull half hour discussion of an audit report -- with no problems found in the finances themselves -- ends with nothing actually being done. Rod Sullivan nails it: "Look around you. See these empty chairs? THIS is why. We've been discussing this for a half hour. We have GOT to do a better job with stuff like this." My brand new Twitter seems to work here at the school district office but my Facebook is blocked: This site is blocked by the SonicWALL Content Filter Service. Nominations for membership and candidate development go begging. The group breaks into subcommittees for the first time under the Roseman administration (the lack of breakout groups was one of his main criticisms of the Flaherty Administration). The breakouts took 20 mins. or so; the old hands gravitated to the BBQ group. Janelle Rettig states her case and wants to start doorknocking right after RAGBRAI. Also notes that July 28 5-7 Senator Becky Schmitz is having a Mill fundraiser. Rep. Nate Willems has been representing UFCW workers in Muscatine who've been locked out close to a year. "The company's trying to starve us into submission." Dems weren't able to get 51 votes to get the big labor bills passed. "The impact of all our wins haven't trickled down to that picket line in Muscatine," but he's nevertheless staying optimistic. He's also throwing a 30th (!) birthday event July 20, 6-8 at Palisades-Kepler. July Johnson County Democrats: Link |
|
Links to this post
I'm officially a Twit I'm still not sure if it's a trend or just a fad, but I'm on Twitter. For now I expect to use it mostly just to promote posts from this site, or maybe to pass on some links. But then, 6 1/2 years ago I didn't know what I was going to do with this blog, either. John Deeth on Twitter: Link |
|
Links to this post Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Republicans target Senator Beall The Iowa Republican reports/announces that Ft. Dodge contractor Chris McGonegle is running against Democratic Sen. Daryl Beall next year in District 25. The turf is roughly Webster, Calhoun and Greene counties. Beall took over the seat in 2002 when one-term Republican Mike Sexton (who beat Democrat Rod Halverson in 1998) didn't run. Beall expanded his winning margin from 58% in 2002 to 67% in 2006. Republicans target Senator Beall: Link |
|
Links to this post
Steele Passes Westwood Line Lost in the news shuffle of Michael Jackson, Al Franken and Sarah Palin is a significant Republican milestone that I only noticed when Michael "no relation to my in-laws" Steele alienated his own base yet again saying Palin is out for `12: Michael Steele has officially passed the Westwood Line, exceeding the 149 day tenure as party chair of Jeanne Westwood. She was George McGovern's choice to head the DNC in 1972 and got whacked right after the election. Never thought he'd make it past the Westwood Line, especially after that special election loss in New York for Gillibrand's seat that was supposed to be make and break for Steele. Now the only question: Will Dennis Roseman last until August 1? Steele Passes Westwood Line: Link |
|
Links to this post Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Iowa Republican Senate Leaders or Spinal Tap Drummers? Well, Paul McKinley is in making four official Republican candidates for governor and Rod Roberts and Jerry Behn in the wings. Logistically, this increases the chances for my pet theory: Vander Plaats nominated at a convention. But it leaves Iowa Senate Republicans with another issue."I wonder when he will step down as the Senate leader," writes commentator 'jerry' at the BeanWalker post that broke the story. "It’s only fair to them that he do it quickly." Fair to other candidates and to Senate Republicans; the legislative session's January to April season is poor timing for a member, particularly a leader, running in an early June primary. But if McKinley does step down as leader (his term in the Senate itself runs till `12), it makes Iowa Senate Republicans, down to a few but proud 18 out of 50, look like a certain fictitious English heavy metal band that's just now making a comeback. So that's four different leaders in four consecutive sessions--five in five sessions if McKinley bails. Dozens of legislative leaders spontaneously combust each year; it's just not widely reported. McKinley In for Governor: Link |
|
Links to this post
CQ Shows Iowa Dems Voting Scores About The Same Congressional Quarterly is out with its semi-annual analysis of voting scores, and it shows the three Democrats in Iowa's House delegation lining up with very similar scores. Match the member with the score:
Answer at the bottom of the post, but the distinctions are really fine. What's interesting is that Blue Dog Boswell is lining up with Braley and with Progressive Caucus member Loebsack. On the Republican side, there's more of a difference. Tom Latham, in a dead-even district and perhaps anticipating a redistricting face-off with Boswell in 2012, is at 46 percent Obama support and only 85 percent party unity. Steve King, playing to a solid base in a safe district, is only at 19 percent Obama support (putting him in the bottom 10 percent of the House) and a 99 on party unity. A couple caveats: Unlike most interest group scoring which selects a few key votes, CQ counts everything. If Obama takes a position in favor of National Gopher Day and it passes unanimously, that counts as Steve King supporting Obama. And CQ weighs everything equally; Gopher Day counts as much as the stimulus package. It also doesn't take into account the reason for a vote. If Dennis Kucinich votes no on Gopher Day because he also wants to honor groundhogs and gerbils, while Walt Minnick votes no because his big campaign donor Carl Spackler says gophers are destroying Idaho's golf courses, both get counted as anti-Obama and anti-party unity. But in the meantime it's numbers and that's fun (for me anyway). CQ has fun interactive widgets to play with, and the really interesting thing is to look at the outliers who don't fit any pattern, the Gene Taylors and Joe Caos and Ron Pauls. Answers: 1=B 2=C 3=A. CQ Shows Iowa Dems About The Same: Link |
|
Links to this post
Can Palin Still Do Retail? There is so much Palin commentary out there from so many angles that the mind boggles, and I wan't planning on piling on even more. But this comment from Walter Shapiro stands out: White House dreamers whom nobody has ever heard of like, say, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, need years to build a national fundraising network and to visit all of Iowa's 99 counties. But the joy of being Sarah Palin is that she never has to feign enthusiasm while talking to 14 elderly Iowa Republicans in a cafe in Sac City. When you are the celebrity candidate, you do not deign to speak in a venue smaller than a high-school gymnasium unless it is a real-people photo op. Ah yes, the strategy that worked so well for Hillary Clinton in Iowa. I remain absolutely convinced that the resignation is a 2012 move and that Palin is not only a significant contender, she's a plausible nominee. (Not a plausible president or an electable general election candidate, but it's not my job to save the GOP from its mistakes.) What else have they got? Huckabee and Romney are undamaged, but my Grand Unifying Theory remains: The Money Republicans veto economic populist Huckabee and the Jesus Republicans veto "cult member" Romney. So scratch them (Jindal does a second term and runs in `16) and all the Republicans have left is anti-Obama. And Palin, the second top tier national figure to emerge from my generation (she may yet prove to be a Ferraro-esque footnote) is a virtual antithesis of Obama: Rural where he is urban, state college vs. Ivy League, Wal-Mart vs. Whole Foods... I could go on, but if anti-Obama is what they want, well, there she is. So Sarah -- can I call ya Sarah? Good, because I practiced some zingers where I call ya Sarah -- we'll be seeing you in Iowa. We've seen you here before, but that was rallies at airport hangars. That's not Iowa. Iowa is that Pizza Ranch in Pole Bean or Courthouse Center where people actually expect to meet you and talk with you at length. They have questions and expect specific, detailed answers, and they grumble if the event was scheduled at 5:30 and you aren't there at 6:20. Parachuting in as a regal celebrity candidate won't work. It didn't work for Hillary, it didn't work for Fred or Rudy on your side (and speaking of Rudy, remember that farm family in Anamosa that he stood up? No? Well, they remember in Anamosa.) No, it was Mike Huckabee, the little engine who could, and Barack Obama, who drew the crowds as a rock star but won the thing as the ultimate community organizer, who prevailed. We know you can do retail. You wouldn't have gotten to be a small-town mayor or a small-state governor if you couldn't. But if you want to get past Iowa, you have to do it all over again. Question is, after this ten month sled ride, can you still do it? Do you still want to do it? If you don't want to do it, can you force yourself to anyway? Can Palin Still Do Retail?: Link |
|
Links to this post
Al Franken Decade Begins As the Al Franken decade begins, I must ask, how will Michael Jackson's death affect him, Al Franken? Answer: The funeral TOTALLY steps on Franken's long-awaited swearing in. Also: Since Obama is in Russia negotiating arms treaties, and the soon to be unemployed Sarah Palin can see Russia from her house, I think we have our verification problem all solved. Al Franken Decade Begins: Link |
|
Links to this post Monday, July 06, 2009
Gingrich Raiding Democratic Primaries My tirade about the evils of Republicans crossing over to vote in Democratic primaries just. won't. go. away. Just to make me mad, who should be encouraging this bad behavior but the Newt himself: In his interview with The Washington Times, Mr. Gingrich sketched out a vision for conservatives and Republicans to block what he considers the Obama-Democratic march to socialism by thinking outside the party-label box. That includes building a center-right majority in Congress and the state legislatures — regardless of party identification — even if that means the heretical idea of Republicans actively promoting and backing conservative Democratic candidates in selected races where a GOP candidate would have little chance of winning. Can't wait to see how "Endorsed by Newt" plays in a Democratic primary... Gingrich Raiding Democratic Primaries: Link |
|
Links to this post
NRCC Targets Braley--Does That Mean An Opponent? Steve Singiser at Kos has a followup thought on the NRCC's campaign spots targeting House members who backed the American Clean Energy and Security Act. My first thought was that his Energy and Commerce membership prompted the spots, but Singiser has another theory: Some of the representatives targeted by this ad make sense. They include a group of potentially vulnerable freshmen... Others are a bit more curious, because they are incumbents in swingy districts who cakewalked to wins in 2008. This might be a tipping of the hand by the NRCC, a sign that they think that they have legit candidates at the ready for 2010: Names, anyone? NRCC Targets Braley: Link |
|
Links to this post
Why Not Him: Franken to Iowa in September Franken's been a Steak Fry speaker before -- my 2007 research doesn't get the exact year -- but of course not as a Senator. Looking back to 2006, it was the beginning of Obama's long march... can we say Franken 16? Can we see Rush's head exploding? Franken to Iowa in September: Link |
|
Links to this post Friday, July 03, 2009
Ya know, quittin' your job and bein' a full-time presidential candidate for three years is kinda like bein' a small state governor -- except you don't have Actual Responsibilities. Update: in an insane way this almost makes sense. Alaska is in the way of the ambition and the day job doesn't help in any way. It actually hurts; stuck six time zones away dealing with trivia like a state budget. Palin quits: Link |
|
Links to this post
The Conservababe One of the most popular parodies of Campaign 2008 was a photoshopped image of Sarah Palin's head onto the body of a woman wearing an American flag bikini and brandishing a gun. Enough people found this image of Palin plausible that Snopes had to debunk it. Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum hit the streets this week with a lengthy Palin piece. Seemingly in response, though the timing is a coincidence, Palin appears in Runner's World. The takeaway quote is her complaint that Team McCain didn't schedule enough time for her morning jogs. But what's really interesting is the photo gallery. Palin poses in tight workout shorts, with better hair and makeup than one would normally have for jogging. Baby Trig is a prop in a couple shots. There are no shots of Palin actually exercising, the way they show Obama shooting hoops and sweating. Instead, she's stretching and posing. One pose has her hand on hip in front of a flag, and there's almost no way not to think of the bikini-gun picture. Physical fitness is of course a good thing. Palin and I are almost exactly the same age and she looks to be in better shape than I am (my workouts have slipped lately). But wouldn't baggy sweats have sent that message just as well as a Maxim lite layout? Middle-aged male candidates since JFK have had the tanned and blow-dried anchorman archetype to follow (see: Romney, Mitt and Edwards, John). Female politicians have no equivalent, so Palin is on uncharted ground. Purdum writes: "Another aspect of the Palin phenomenon bears examination, even if the mere act of raising it invites intimations of sexism: she is by far the best-looking woman ever to rise to such heights in national politics, the first indisputably fertile female to dare to dance with the big dogs. This pheromonal reality has been a blessing and a curse. It has captivated people who would never have given someone with Palin’s record a second glance if Palin had looked like Susan Boyle. And it has made others reluctant to give her a second chance because she looks like a beauty queen." Dangerous ground for a male writer. But he says in prose what the woman who parodied Palin said in punch lines. Fierce feminist Tina Fey backed Hillary Clinton in the primary with the rallying cry "Bitches get stuff done," yet played heavily on the Palin as Conservababe image from her very first impersonation, the famous "I can see Russia from my house" appearance. Hillary Clinton: But, Sarah, one thing we can agree on is that sexism can never be allowed to permeate a American election. With 1:36 remaining in the clip, Fey actually strikes the bikini-gun pose. Her later parodies usually touched on the Conservababe image: flashing some leg or doing some "fancy pageant walkin'" in front of Palin herself. Of course, parody was difficult when Palin was winking at us in the debate. Meanwhile, Amy Poehler's long-suffering Hillary Clinton touches on one of the big reasons that a moderately attractive middle-aged pageant contestant was greeted in the world of politics like Jessica Alba on a red carpet: Women still generally wait until after they've had kids to run for office, and often abandon their own ambitions in favor of their husband's. Bill Clinton was 28 when he made his first run for office. Hillary was 53. One of the interesting things about Nancy Pelosi's rise to power wasn't just the first woman thing--it's that she rose to the top when she didn't win elected office until age 47, a decade or two older than most other recent Speakers. One would think, as the baby boomers approach Social Security, that our culture's notions of what's considered attractive would have aged accordingly. Instead, we've become more youth-obsessed than ever. A still-beautiful Jamie Lee Curtis is stuck at age 50 in yogurt ads because 60 year old leading men get to play opposite 25 year old starlets as love interests. Catherine Zeta Jones, meet Michael Douglas. Saturday Night Live played the idea of sex with 62-year-old Susan Sarandon for laughs in May. Faith Hill gets photoshopped into a Barbie doll, and Nicole Kidman has disfigured her 40something face until she looks like the Stepford Wife she once played. They say Washington is Hollywood for ugly people, and that sets the bar low enough that the physically fit but relatively ordinary Palin stands out. There simply aren't very many women in their 30s or early 40s in public office, and our society doesn't acknowledge female beauty past that age. Thus Palin's main achievement -- if you call being plucked out of relative obscurity an achievement -- is merely to have climbed so high at a young enough age that she's still seen as a woman and not an "old lady." |
email jdeethATmchsi.com
Deeth is also a political activist in Johnson County and the Democratic Party, and ran for the Iowa legislature in 1996. The John Deeth Blog, recently listed as one of the top state-level political blogs by the Washington Post, has been published since Dec. 31, 2002. John's writing interests include electoral politics in general and Iowa politics in particular, popular music and culture, and technology. John lives in Iowa City, Iowa, with his wife Koni Steele, their sons Hayden and Ethan, and their cats. Their family also includes their daughter Jimiya and grandson Elias. Subscribe (Bloglines) Subscribe (FeedBlitz) XML | Front page | Old Site Recent Rants: Blogrolling.com: out of order |
|
_ |
