Senate District 50
Registration: D 17961, R 9058, N 14461, total 41513, D +8903
Incumbent: Pam Jochum, D-Dubuque; contested Republican primary
Jochum moved smoothly over to the Senate in 2008 (a 70% win over Some Dude John Hulshizer Jr.) after 16 years in the House, when Mike Connolly retired. Her district Draws Itself, as Dubuque is 94.6% of ideal district size. To bring the population up, Sageville and the north chunk of the highly fragmented Dubuque Township are added. Redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering occasionally does work for the Dubuque city planning department; I count at least seven noncontiguous pieces of three different townships here.
None of this really matters much in a Democratic stronghold like this. Hulshizer is running again. He's joined on the GOP primary ballot by Will Johnson, who ran a tea party type campaign in the 1st CD primary in 2010.
Campaign finance reports: People for Pam Jochum
The House district line across Dubuque pivots a bit, moving north in the west and south on the riverfront. Chuck Isenhart has the Loras campus and most of downtown, everything from the Illinois bridge north; Murphy has University of Dubuque and most everything south of Asbury Road.
House District 99
Registration: D 9267, R 5180, N 7637, total 22098, D +4087
Incumbent: Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque; rematch of 2010 race
Then-Speaker Pat Murphy was almost a victim of the 2010 zeitgeist. He'd won with a typical 69% in 2008, but Republican insurance agent Paul Kern held Murphy to 52-48 last year. It was Murphy's closest race since squeaking in by 91 votes in a 1989 special. Murphy took himself out as Democratic leader soon after the statewide results took him out as speaker.
Kern is running again this year. 2010 may have been a wake-up call, but things should be better for Murphy now. Party leadership means a lot of campaigning for other people instead of yourself, and it also puts a special target on your back (ask Mike Gronstal).
Murphy for State Representative is sitting on a $17,221 bank account; Paul Kern for State Representative had $4628 on hand, mostly left over from 2010.
House District 100
Registration: D 8694, R 3878, N 6824, total 19415, D +4816
Incumbent: Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque
Isenhart won a three way primary with a clear majority in 2008 when Jochum moved over to the Senate. He had a second primary from a Some Dude in 2010, winning with 86% Both of his general election wins were in the 60something range. So far this year, it looks like it's in the 100 percent range, with no primary or general opposition.
Campaign finance reports: Isenhart Campaign for the Common Good
Original post 7/01/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
John Deeth - Too old to be cool, too young not to care
Saturday, March 17, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 49, Iowa House District 97 & 98
Senate District 49
Registration: D 13998, R 11017, N 18594, total 43634, D +2981
No Incumbent; contested Democratic primary. Two year term.
Odd-numbered seats normally run on the gubernatorial cycle, but this is the only odd number seat with no incumbent in residence on Map Day.
Democrat Tod Bowman beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes in 2010 in old Senate 13, to become the only freshman Democrat in the Senate. That seat included the city of Clinton and northern Clinton County. It went north to pull in all of Jackson County, where Bowman lives in Maquoketa. It also had a small piece of Dubuque County, up to the south city limits.
The new district turns around and faces south. Clinton County is whole, and northern Scott County is included (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Thus a district that was maybe half Clinton County is now about 3/4, and a district that had a Democratic edge of 7,500 registered voters sees that lead cut in half.
Bowman could have moved in and held over. But he wanted to stay with Jackson County. After what seemed like forever, his district-mate, Democrat Tom Hancock, retired, leaving this seat empty. (Bowman still gets to hold over in Senate 29.)
Naeve didn't wait; he announced before the Bowman-Hancock pair had been resolved -- before we even knew if the seat would be on the ballot. In 2010, he won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes, as Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson.
Former Clinton mayor Rodger Holm was a comedy factor here. He hinted at running on the GOP side, then dropped out of his mayoral re-election race, then dropped back in as a write-in.
Once Bowman made his decision, two Democratic women joined the race: Rita Hart of Wheatland, a community volunteer and retired teacher, and Clinton attorney Dorothy O'Brien. The predecessor of this seat saw a four-way 2010 Democratic primary when long time incumbent Democrat Roger Stewart retired.
Naeve for State Senate led fundraising on the January 19 report with $10,333 on hand. Dorothy O'Brien for state Senate had $2216, while Rita R. Hart for State Senate had just opened an account with $140.
All things being equal, the Democrat would be favored over Republican Andrew Naeve, but Naeve made it extremely close against Bowman in a much bluer version of this seat.
House District 97
Registration: D 6319, R 6527, N 9756, total 22616, R +208
Incumbent: Steve Olson, R-DeWitt
What's the deal here? Steve Olson got a relatively close 56-44 race in 2008, but then went unopposed in a swing seat in 2010. This year, the seat gets a bit more Democratic, probably dead even when you figure GOP registration is artificially high right now post-caucus. But still no Democratic candidate.
Olson went to the House in 2002 when the Clinton-Camanche area was redrawn. In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships: Pleasant Valley is out, Lincoln is in. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.
Campaign finance reports: Steve Olson for State Representative
House District 98
Registration: D 7679, R 4490, N 8838, total 21018, D +3189
Incumbent: Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton
When Democrat Polly Bukta retired in 2010 she backed attorney Mary Wolfe, who was nominated with no primary (in contrast to the four-way open seat Senate primary that Bowman went through). Republicans had the best circumstances they could get: an open seat, a good cycle, and a credible candidate in former school board member David Rose. But Rose fell 424 votes short, and no Republican has filed this year.
Since we're in The District Draws Itself range (city of Clinton population=88% of ideal district size) there's little change in Wolfe's party margin. Continued population loss in the city means adding Low Moor (so small on the map scale that I had to read the legislation to see if it was in or out) and three small towns and townships on the Clinton-Jackson line: Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover.
Campaign finance reports: Mary Wolfe Campaign
Original post 6/30/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 13998, R 11017, N 18594, total 43634, D +2981
No Incumbent; contested Democratic primary. Two year term.
Odd-numbered seats normally run on the gubernatorial cycle, but this is the only odd number seat with no incumbent in residence on Map Day.
Democrat Tod Bowman beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes in 2010 in old Senate 13, to become the only freshman Democrat in the Senate. That seat included the city of Clinton and northern Clinton County. It went north to pull in all of Jackson County, where Bowman lives in Maquoketa. It also had a small piece of Dubuque County, up to the south city limits.
The new district turns around and faces south. Clinton County is whole, and northern Scott County is included (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Thus a district that was maybe half Clinton County is now about 3/4, and a district that had a Democratic edge of 7,500 registered voters sees that lead cut in half.
Bowman could have moved in and held over. But he wanted to stay with Jackson County. After what seemed like forever, his district-mate, Democrat Tom Hancock, retired, leaving this seat empty. (Bowman still gets to hold over in Senate 29.)
Naeve didn't wait; he announced before the Bowman-Hancock pair had been resolved -- before we even knew if the seat would be on the ballot. In 2010, he won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes, as Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson.
Former Clinton mayor Rodger Holm was a comedy factor here. He hinted at running on the GOP side, then dropped out of his mayoral re-election race, then dropped back in as a write-in.
Once Bowman made his decision, two Democratic women joined the race: Rita Hart of Wheatland, a community volunteer and retired teacher, and Clinton attorney Dorothy O'Brien. The predecessor of this seat saw a four-way 2010 Democratic primary when long time incumbent Democrat Roger Stewart retired.
Naeve for State Senate led fundraising on the January 19 report with $10,333 on hand. Dorothy O'Brien for state Senate had $2216, while Rita R. Hart for State Senate had just opened an account with $140.
All things being equal, the Democrat would be favored over Republican Andrew Naeve, but Naeve made it extremely close against Bowman in a much bluer version of this seat.
House District 97
Registration: D 6319, R 6527, N 9756, total 22616, R +208
Incumbent: Steve Olson, R-DeWitt
What's the deal here? Steve Olson got a relatively close 56-44 race in 2008, but then went unopposed in a swing seat in 2010. This year, the seat gets a bit more Democratic, probably dead even when you figure GOP registration is artificially high right now post-caucus. But still no Democratic candidate.
Olson went to the House in 2002 when the Clinton-Camanche area was redrawn. In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships: Pleasant Valley is out, Lincoln is in. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.
Campaign finance reports: Steve Olson for State Representative
House District 98
Registration: D 7679, R 4490, N 8838, total 21018, D +3189
Incumbent: Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton
When Democrat Polly Bukta retired in 2010 she backed attorney Mary Wolfe, who was nominated with no primary (in contrast to the four-way open seat Senate primary that Bowman went through). Republicans had the best circumstances they could get: an open seat, a good cycle, and a credible candidate in former school board member David Rose. But Rose fell 424 votes short, and no Republican has filed this year.
Since we're in The District Draws Itself range (city of Clinton population=88% of ideal district size) there's little change in Wolfe's party margin. Continued population loss in the city means adding Low Moor (so small on the map scale that I had to read the legislation to see if it was in or out) and three small towns and townships on the Clinton-Jackson line: Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover.
Campaign finance reports: Mary Wolfe Campaign
Original post 6/30/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 48, Iowa House District 95 & 96
Senate District 48
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.
House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.
In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.
Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.
In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House
House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello
Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.
Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House
Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.
House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.
In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.
Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.
In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House
House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello
Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.
Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House
Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 47, Iowa House District 93 & 94
Senate District 47
Registration: D 13692, R 16280, N 19609, total 49623, R +2588
Incumbent: Roby Smith, R-Davenport; holdover seat
In Bettendorf and east Davenport, the Republican primary has been the big deal, as two consecutive incumbents have been knocked off in this district. In 2006, longtime moderate Maggie Tinsman lost to newcomer Dave Hartsuch, who then BARELY won the general over Phyllis Thede. Hartsuch quickly established himself as the Senate's leading hard-right crazy, and lost a landslide to Bruce Braley in the 2008 congressional race. (He was pointedly excluded from John McCain's October `08 visit to the QC.)
In 2010 it was Hartsuch who lost his primary, thus giving him the David Levy No-prize as the only Republican incumbent who sought re-election and failed, as no GOP incumbents lost in the general. (Democrats did, however, pick up one OPEN House seat, Dan Muhlbauer in Carroll.)
The winner was Roby Smith, who had lost a 2006 House race one district to the west. The primary with Hartsuch was more a matter of emphasis than actual policy differences; Hartsuch was about social issues while Smith was about Business.
Democrats were optimistic enough that they, too, had a primary. Phyllis Thede's husband David was favored, but lost a bit of an upset to Richard Clewell. In retrospect, Democratic hopes to win this seat probably vanished when Hartsuch lost the primary, as Smith handily won the general with 59%.
The lines change little. Bettendorf (along with the enclaved cities of Riverdale and Panorama Park) remains whole and remains the anchor. In Davenport, the lines remain Brady (Highway 61) for the most part. Pleasant Valley Township is added to the east of Bettendorf. the district gains about 800 Republicans, which could be useful for the party if Smith gets primaried from the right...
Campaign finance reports: Smith for Senate
House District 93
Registration: D 7678, R 7322, N 9613, total 24639, D +356
Incumbent: Phyllis Thede, D-Bettendorf
David Thede's 2010 Senate primary loss precluded the chance that Iowa would see its first husband and wife legislative team since the Republican Hesters (Senator Jack and Representative Joan) left office in 1994. As noted, Phyllis had run for the Senate seat in 2006, falling just 436 votes short of Hartsuch. In 2008 she set her sights on the House and finished off another two-legislator family, the Van Fossens. Jim, the dad, had lost to Elesha Gayman in 2006. Phyllis beat Jamie Van Fossen, the son, 56-44.
Republicans made a serious comeback effort in 2010 with former Davenport city council member Carla Batchelor, but Thede held on by 233 votes. Given that margin, the line changes are significant, as Thede loses more than half of what had been an 1145 Democratic registration edge. Thede's district shifts east, losing part of downtown Davenport and everything north of 53rd Street, and picking up a bigger piece of west Bettendorf.
This year, Davenport tea partier Mark Nelson has the Republican line on the ballot. Nelson was the 2006 Libertarian nominee for lieutenant governor.
Campaign finance reports: Thede for Iowa Families
House District 94
Registration: D 6014, R 8958, N 9996, total 24984, R +2944
Incumbent: Linda Miller, R-Bettendorf
The Republican primary doesn't always settle things in Bettendorf. After Linda Miller knocked off moderate Joe Hutter in the same 2006 primary where Hartsuch teabagged Tinsman to death, Hutter continued his re-election bid as an independent. Democrats didn't have a horse in that race, which Miller won easily. She had no opposition in 2008 or 2010.
But this year Miller gets her first ever Democratic opponent: attorney Maria Bribriesco.
This is still basically the Bettendorf district, though a slightly bigger piece gets carved out; at 33,217 population, Bettendorf is just a little too big for The District Draws Itself. Miller picks up the northwest part of Davenport from Thede, and Pleasant Valley Township east of the city limits. This gives her a slightly stronger GOP registration edge.
Campaign finance reports: Concerned Citizens for Miller
Original post 6/28/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 13692, R 16280, N 19609, total 49623, R +2588
Incumbent: Roby Smith, R-Davenport; holdover seat
In Bettendorf and east Davenport, the Republican primary has been the big deal, as two consecutive incumbents have been knocked off in this district. In 2006, longtime moderate Maggie Tinsman lost to newcomer Dave Hartsuch, who then BARELY won the general over Phyllis Thede. Hartsuch quickly established himself as the Senate's leading hard-right crazy, and lost a landslide to Bruce Braley in the 2008 congressional race. (He was pointedly excluded from John McCain's October `08 visit to the QC.)
In 2010 it was Hartsuch who lost his primary, thus giving him the David Levy No-prize as the only Republican incumbent who sought re-election and failed, as no GOP incumbents lost in the general. (Democrats did, however, pick up one OPEN House seat, Dan Muhlbauer in Carroll.)
The winner was Roby Smith, who had lost a 2006 House race one district to the west. The primary with Hartsuch was more a matter of emphasis than actual policy differences; Hartsuch was about social issues while Smith was about Business.
Democrats were optimistic enough that they, too, had a primary. Phyllis Thede's husband David was favored, but lost a bit of an upset to Richard Clewell. In retrospect, Democratic hopes to win this seat probably vanished when Hartsuch lost the primary, as Smith handily won the general with 59%.
The lines change little. Bettendorf (along with the enclaved cities of Riverdale and Panorama Park) remains whole and remains the anchor. In Davenport, the lines remain Brady (Highway 61) for the most part. Pleasant Valley Township is added to the east of Bettendorf. the district gains about 800 Republicans, which could be useful for the party if Smith gets primaried from the right...
Campaign finance reports: Smith for Senate
House District 93
Registration: D 7678, R 7322, N 9613, total 24639, D +356
Incumbent: Phyllis Thede, D-Bettendorf
David Thede's 2010 Senate primary loss precluded the chance that Iowa would see its first husband and wife legislative team since the Republican Hesters (Senator Jack and Representative Joan) left office in 1994. As noted, Phyllis had run for the Senate seat in 2006, falling just 436 votes short of Hartsuch. In 2008 she set her sights on the House and finished off another two-legislator family, the Van Fossens. Jim, the dad, had lost to Elesha Gayman in 2006. Phyllis beat Jamie Van Fossen, the son, 56-44.
Republicans made a serious comeback effort in 2010 with former Davenport city council member Carla Batchelor, but Thede held on by 233 votes. Given that margin, the line changes are significant, as Thede loses more than half of what had been an 1145 Democratic registration edge. Thede's district shifts east, losing part of downtown Davenport and everything north of 53rd Street, and picking up a bigger piece of west Bettendorf.
This year, Davenport tea partier Mark Nelson has the Republican line on the ballot. Nelson was the 2006 Libertarian nominee for lieutenant governor.
Campaign finance reports: Thede for Iowa Families
House District 94
Registration: D 6014, R 8958, N 9996, total 24984, R +2944
Incumbent: Linda Miller, R-Bettendorf
The Republican primary doesn't always settle things in Bettendorf. After Linda Miller knocked off moderate Joe Hutter in the same 2006 primary where Hartsuch teabagged Tinsman to death, Hutter continued his re-election bid as an independent. Democrats didn't have a horse in that race, which Miller won easily. She had no opposition in 2008 or 2010.
But this year Miller gets her first ever Democratic opponent: attorney Maria Bribriesco.
This is still basically the Bettendorf district, though a slightly bigger piece gets carved out; at 33,217 population, Bettendorf is just a little too big for The District Draws Itself. Miller picks up the northwest part of Davenport from Thede, and Pleasant Valley Township east of the city limits. This gives her a slightly stronger GOP registration edge.
Campaign finance reports: Concerned Citizens for Miller
Original post 6/28/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 46, Iowa House District 91 & 92
Senate District 46
Registration: D 12899, R 12635, N 18487, total 44037, D +264
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Dixon and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine
How many of us assumed on Map Day that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, would step down and cede this seat to Shawn Hamerlinck? Or that Hamerlinck, who works in Clinton and lives almost on the line of no-incumbent Senate 49, would move?
Didn't happen, so we have the only two incumbent Senate primary, between two Republicans on turf that leans Democratic.
This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.
Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.
What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.
This primary has rippled into the 2nd CD congressional race. Counter-intuitively, Hahn has endorsed the Quad City based candidate, John Archer, while Hamerlinck is supporting Muscatine's Dan Dolan. That ought to muddy the friends and neighbors dynamic.
Democrats are ready to take on the survivor with Muscatine firefighter Chris Brase, who seems to be a Tom Courtney recruit. Courtney's from the safe adjacent district to the south so he's likely to help out.
On the January 19 campaign finance report, Committee to Elect Jim Hahn had $6594 in hand, raised $2450, and reported no spending. Committee to Elect Shawn Hamerlinck raised $7,088.00, spent $7358, and had $2261 in the bank. Committee to Elect Chris Brase had just gotten started with $500.
House District 91
Registration: D 6341, R 6553, N 8506, total 21408, R +212
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine
Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP. He beat the first Democrat to hold the set in decades, three termer Nathan Reichert, by 1500 votes.
This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofgren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.
Democrats have recruited John Dabeet, chair of the Muscatine Community College business department. Dabeet is of Palestinian heritage and Democrats felt the need to emphasize that he is a Christian.
This seat is definitely winnable for a Democrat in a good year, as Muscatine is trending blue, but it'll take some work as Muscatine is historically low turnout.
Campaign finance reports: Team Lofgren
House District 92
Registration: D 6558, R 6082, N 9981, total 22629, D +476
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott
No one really thought Elesha Gayman had a shot in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature. And no one really expected her to retire - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline.
Republican Ross Paustian had never stopped running. He was briefly reported as a winner on Election Night 2008, but absentees put Gayman over the top. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious 2010 effort, but Paustian won with 57%.
The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help former senator Frank Wood, who is attempting a comeback on the House side. Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.
As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.
Paustian for State House was off to an early money lead, with $16,596 on hand on the January 19 report to Wood for State House's $4432.
Original post 6/27/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12899, R 12635, N 18487, total 44037, D +264
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Dixon and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine
How many of us assumed on Map Day that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, would step down and cede this seat to Shawn Hamerlinck? Or that Hamerlinck, who works in Clinton and lives almost on the line of no-incumbent Senate 49, would move?
Didn't happen, so we have the only two incumbent Senate primary, between two Republicans on turf that leans Democratic.
This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.
Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.
What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.
This primary has rippled into the 2nd CD congressional race. Counter-intuitively, Hahn has endorsed the Quad City based candidate, John Archer, while Hamerlinck is supporting Muscatine's Dan Dolan. That ought to muddy the friends and neighbors dynamic.
Democrats are ready to take on the survivor with Muscatine firefighter Chris Brase, who seems to be a Tom Courtney recruit. Courtney's from the safe adjacent district to the south so he's likely to help out.
On the January 19 campaign finance report, Committee to Elect Jim Hahn had $6594 in hand, raised $2450, and reported no spending. Committee to Elect Shawn Hamerlinck raised $7,088.00, spent $7358, and had $2261 in the bank. Committee to Elect Chris Brase had just gotten started with $500.
House District 91
Registration: D 6341, R 6553, N 8506, total 21408, R +212
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine
Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP. He beat the first Democrat to hold the set in decades, three termer Nathan Reichert, by 1500 votes.
This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofgren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.
Democrats have recruited John Dabeet, chair of the Muscatine Community College business department. Dabeet is of Palestinian heritage and Democrats felt the need to emphasize that he is a Christian.
This seat is definitely winnable for a Democrat in a good year, as Muscatine is trending blue, but it'll take some work as Muscatine is historically low turnout.
Campaign finance reports: Team Lofgren
House District 92
Registration: D 6558, R 6082, N 9981, total 22629, D +476
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott
No one really thought Elesha Gayman had a shot in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature. And no one really expected her to retire - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline.
Republican Ross Paustian had never stopped running. He was briefly reported as a winner on Election Night 2008, but absentees put Gayman over the top. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious 2010 effort, but Paustian won with 57%.
The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help former senator Frank Wood, who is attempting a comeback on the House side. Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.
As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.
Paustian for State House was off to an early money lead, with $16,596 on hand on the January 19 report to Wood for State House's $4432.
Original post 6/27/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 45, Iowa House District 89 & 90
Senate District 45
Registration: D 16646, R 8456, N 18967, total 44100, D +8190
Incumbent: Joe Seng, D-Davenport; holdover seat
I've been a Loebsacker since at least 2005, when he was still Some Dude, so my objectivity is strained as I look at Senator Doctor Seng.Since the only complaints I hear about My Man Dave are that 1) he doesn't vote exactly like Dennis Kucinich and 2) he didn't step aside for Christie Vilsack, a primary challenge from the RIGHT by a MALE makes little sense.
So let's assume for now that Seng doesn't pull this off, in which case he settles back in to hold over till 2014. In a district this blue, about 700 Democrats stronger than his old turf, he could be vulnerable to a primary challenge of his own. I'm just sayin'.
As for the lines, what was a vertical strip through the middle third of Davenport moves south and west and partway out of the city.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Joe Seng
House District 89
Registration: D 7848, R 5153, N 9773, total 22790, D +2695
Incumbent: Jim Lykam, D-Davenport
Lykam won one term in 1988, got knocked off in by Steve Grubbs in `90, then came back on friendlier turf in 2002, friendly enough that he drew a bye in 2010. (In 2006 he beat Roby Smith). That turf, new in west central Davenport, stays just about as friendly this decade. He loses a couple precincts in the north, where the district used to go to the Davenport-Eldridge line, and shifts west to the Davenport city limits.
Davenport alderman Bill Edmond is running on the GOP side. (Trivia: Davenport was the last city in the state with a partisan city council. They voted to go non-partisan in 1995. The code section allowing partisan city councils remains on the books even though no one uses it.)
Campaign finance reports: Friends of Jim Lykam
House District 90
Registration: D 8798, R 3303, N 9194, total 21310, D +5495
Incumbent: Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport
Winckler knocked off one-term Republican John Sunderbruch in 2000 and has been mostly solid since. Republicans made a serious effort last cycle with city council member Ray Ambrose. Ambrose held Winckler to a relatively close 55%, with dismal turnout. That may be the max for the GOP on this turf, as Winckler's margins are usually closer to 70-30. Or 100 to nothing; no Republican filed here.
The district shifts south and west, taking in most of southwest Davenport in wards 1 and 3. Winckler also moves east along the riverfront by what looks like one precinct, which gives her almost all of Davenport's Illinois border. It expands outside the city limit to include the city of Buffalo, which gives the district a nice long skinny shape that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes. The changes make the seat even more Democratic.
Campaign finance reports: Winckler for State House
Original post 6/24/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 16646, R 8456, N 18967, total 44100, D +8190
Incumbent: Joe Seng, D-Davenport; holdover seat
I've been a Loebsacker since at least 2005, when he was still Some Dude, so my objectivity is strained as I look at Senator Doctor Seng.Since the only complaints I hear about My Man Dave are that 1) he doesn't vote exactly like Dennis Kucinich and 2) he didn't step aside for Christie Vilsack, a primary challenge from the RIGHT by a MALE makes little sense.
So let's assume for now that Seng doesn't pull this off, in which case he settles back in to hold over till 2014. In a district this blue, about 700 Democrats stronger than his old turf, he could be vulnerable to a primary challenge of his own. I'm just sayin'.
As for the lines, what was a vertical strip through the middle third of Davenport moves south and west and partway out of the city.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Joe Seng
House District 89
Registration: D 7848, R 5153, N 9773, total 22790, D +2695
Incumbent: Jim Lykam, D-Davenport
Lykam won one term in 1988, got knocked off in by Steve Grubbs in `90, then came back on friendlier turf in 2002, friendly enough that he drew a bye in 2010. (In 2006 he beat Roby Smith). That turf, new in west central Davenport, stays just about as friendly this decade. He loses a couple precincts in the north, where the district used to go to the Davenport-Eldridge line, and shifts west to the Davenport city limits.
Davenport alderman Bill Edmond is running on the GOP side. (Trivia: Davenport was the last city in the state with a partisan city council. They voted to go non-partisan in 1995. The code section allowing partisan city councils remains on the books even though no one uses it.)
Campaign finance reports: Friends of Jim Lykam
House District 90
Registration: D 8798, R 3303, N 9194, total 21310, D +5495
Incumbent: Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport
Winckler knocked off one-term Republican John Sunderbruch in 2000 and has been mostly solid since. Republicans made a serious effort last cycle with city council member Ray Ambrose. Ambrose held Winckler to a relatively close 55%, with dismal turnout. That may be the max for the GOP on this turf, as Winckler's margins are usually closer to 70-30. Or 100 to nothing; no Republican filed here.
The district shifts south and west, taking in most of southwest Davenport in wards 1 and 3. Winckler also moves east along the riverfront by what looks like one precinct, which gives her almost all of Davenport's Illinois border. It expands outside the city limit to include the city of Buffalo, which gives the district a nice long skinny shape that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes. The changes make the seat even more Democratic.
Campaign finance reports: Winckler for State House
Original post 6/24/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 44, Iowa House District 87 & 88
Senate District 44
Registration: D 16429, R 11222, N 14589, total 42262, D +5207
Incumbent: Tom Courtney, D-Burlington
Here's a good illustration of the ripple effect of redistricting. A triple-up two districts to the west in 2001 led to significantly different lines for Gene Fraise of Fort Madison and an empty district in Burlington. The beneficiary was Tom Courtney, who slid comfortably into the seat without GOP opposition (he beat an independent Some Dude) in 2002 and no opposition at all two years later. The Republicans finally tried in `08; David Kerr only scored 40% but carried Louisa. This cycle, GOP veteran Bradley Bourn has announced .
The revised district keeps Des Moines and Louisa counties intact. Courtney also keeps a chunk of western Muscatine County, which grows. Despite that the party margin is almost identical.
But it's polarized; the Courtney Senate seat is made of one heavily Democratic House seat and another that's dead even.
Campaign finance reports: Courtney for State Senate Committee
House District 87
Registration: D 9966, R 4607, N 7098, total 21689, D +5359
Incumbent: Dennis Cohoon, D-Burlington
Another District Draws Itself seat; Burlington's population is 84% of ideal House district size. West Burlington historically was carved off, but now they're together and are 94% of a district. Lose three townships to the north, add one on the south, and that's Dennis Cohoon's district. He's been in the House since 1987, making him the senior House member.
Minister Dave Selmon actually held Cohoon to 59% in the toxic climate of 2010; that's probably a high water mark for the Republicans. I guess I shouldn't say "high water mark" around a river town. Selmon considered a 2012 run but in the end didn't. Instead Cohoon will face Republican Andrew Wilson, who appears to be Some Dude.
Campaign finance reports: Cohoon for Representative
House District 88
Registration: D 6463, R 6615, N 7491, total 20573, R +152
Incumbent: Tom Sands, R-Wapello
The Des Moines Register called Iowa Highway 70 from West Liberty to Nichols, Conesville, and the Columbus Junction area "the Hispanic Highway". This census both West Liberty and Conesville reported Hispanic majorities in the census with Columbus Junction just short at 48%.
This is the descendent of the district I ran in two maps ago. In 2002 the configuration changed from Louisa-rural Muscatine-rural Johnson to Louisa-rural Muscatine-rural Des Moines. That's when Tom Sands, then of Columbus Junction (he's now moved downstream to Wapello) took over from Barry Brauns.
Sands keeps the same basic configuration as last decade, with Louisa as the core of the district. In Des Moines County, he keeps the rural and small towns west of the city, but loses West Burlington to Dennis Cohoon. The seat expands north geographically, making up for population loss; no place was hit harder by the 2008 flood than Louisa County. Sands adds most of the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa, Moscow, and rural Wilton, though the city of Wilton itself stays with Jeff Kaufmann's district. Sands keeps Nichols and Conesville in western Muscatine but drops Fruitland (the fruit in question would be melons) south of Muscatine city.
The result is a dead-even swing seat. If you sort Iowa House districts by party margin, this is number 50 of 100. Democrats have made some credible efforts. The toughest challenge was in 2008, when former Columbus City mayor Frank Best held him to just 53%. Despite that, Sands got a bye in 2010.
This year, Democrats are serious. Sara Sedlacek, a West Liberty Democrat who works as assistant to the Director at Backyard Abundance and as a grant writer for Johnson County, is a veteran of several Iowa campaigns, including Culver/Judge and State Rep. John Wittneben, who she also served as clerk.
As Ways and Means chair, Sands has been high profile this session and has plenty of access to cash; Sands for State House reported $45,498 in hand January 19. But Committee to Elect Sara Sedlacek was one of the top challengers at fundraising, with $9,378 in the bank.
Original post 6/23/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 16429, R 11222, N 14589, total 42262, D +5207
Incumbent: Tom Courtney, D-Burlington
Here's a good illustration of the ripple effect of redistricting. A triple-up two districts to the west in 2001 led to significantly different lines for Gene Fraise of Fort Madison and an empty district in Burlington. The beneficiary was Tom Courtney, who slid comfortably into the seat without GOP opposition (he beat an independent Some Dude) in 2002 and no opposition at all two years later. The Republicans finally tried in `08; David Kerr only scored 40% but carried Louisa. This cycle, GOP veteran Bradley Bourn has announced .
The revised district keeps Des Moines and Louisa counties intact. Courtney also keeps a chunk of western Muscatine County, which grows. Despite that the party margin is almost identical.
But it's polarized; the Courtney Senate seat is made of one heavily Democratic House seat and another that's dead even.
Campaign finance reports: Courtney for State Senate Committee
House District 87
Registration: D 9966, R 4607, N 7098, total 21689, D +5359
Incumbent: Dennis Cohoon, D-Burlington
Another District Draws Itself seat; Burlington's population is 84% of ideal House district size. West Burlington historically was carved off, but now they're together and are 94% of a district. Lose three townships to the north, add one on the south, and that's Dennis Cohoon's district. He's been in the House since 1987, making him the senior House member.
Minister Dave Selmon actually held Cohoon to 59% in the toxic climate of 2010; that's probably a high water mark for the Republicans. I guess I shouldn't say "high water mark" around a river town. Selmon considered a 2012 run but in the end didn't. Instead Cohoon will face Republican Andrew Wilson, who appears to be Some Dude.
Campaign finance reports: Cohoon for Representative
House District 88
Registration: D 6463, R 6615, N 7491, total 20573, R +152
Incumbent: Tom Sands, R-Wapello
The Des Moines Register called Iowa Highway 70 from West Liberty to Nichols, Conesville, and the Columbus Junction area "the Hispanic Highway". This census both West Liberty and Conesville reported Hispanic majorities in the census with Columbus Junction just short at 48%.
This is the descendent of the district I ran in two maps ago. In 2002 the configuration changed from Louisa-rural Muscatine-rural Johnson to Louisa-rural Muscatine-rural Des Moines. That's when Tom Sands, then of Columbus Junction (he's now moved downstream to Wapello) took over from Barry Brauns.
Sands keeps the same basic configuration as last decade, with Louisa as the core of the district. In Des Moines County, he keeps the rural and small towns west of the city, but loses West Burlington to Dennis Cohoon. The seat expands north geographically, making up for population loss; no place was hit harder by the 2008 flood than Louisa County. Sands adds most of the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa, Moscow, and rural Wilton, though the city of Wilton itself stays with Jeff Kaufmann's district. Sands keeps Nichols and Conesville in western Muscatine but drops Fruitland (the fruit in question would be melons) south of Muscatine city.
The result is a dead-even swing seat. If you sort Iowa House districts by party margin, this is number 50 of 100. Democrats have made some credible efforts. The toughest challenge was in 2008, when former Columbus City mayor Frank Best held him to just 53%. Despite that, Sands got a bye in 2010.
This year, Democrats are serious. Sara Sedlacek, a West Liberty Democrat who works as assistant to the Director at Backyard Abundance and as a grant writer for Johnson County, is a veteran of several Iowa campaigns, including Culver/Judge and State Rep. John Wittneben, who she also served as clerk.
As Ways and Means chair, Sands has been high profile this session and has plenty of access to cash; Sands for State House reported $45,498 in hand January 19. But Committee to Elect Sara Sedlacek was one of the top challengers at fundraising, with $9,378 in the bank.
Original post 6/23/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 43, Iowa House District 85 & 86
Senate District 43
Registration: D 24130, R 9455, N 19380, total 53182, D +14675
Incumbent: Joe Bolkcom, D-Iowa City; holdover seat
Joe Bolkcom went from the Board of Supervisors to the Senate in 1998 and it's been quiet since. This is by far the most Democratic Senate seat, and Republicans last ran a state senate candidate in the Iowa City based district in 1986. Bolkcom's only opposition, primary or general, was an independent in 2006. Joe stays till 2014.
The district doesn't quite draw itself, as Iowa City is just a little bigger than a Senate district. In the 1990s a piece of the north side was carved out and sent to Bob Dvorsky in Coralville; last decade the excess chunk was on the west side instead. That basic configuration stays, with one more west side precinct taken out of Bolkcom's turf and sent to Dvorsky's. There's also a panhandle to the south; see below.
Campaign finance reports: Joe Bolkcom for Iowa Senate
House District 85
Registration: D 12308, R 4793, N 9523, total 26748, D +7515. The number one Democratic district in the state.
Incumbent: Vicki Lensing, D-Iowa City
This becomes an entirely Iowa City district for the first time. In 2000 Lensing had University Heights; last decade she had the rural fragments of East Lucas township. The line across Iowa City for the most part follows Highway 6, Burlington Street, and Muscatine Avenue, with one deviation south (precinct 19). The area north of the line is Lensing's, though her funeral home gets moved into Mary Mascher's district.
When longtime legislative legend Minnette Doderer retired in 2000, Lensing won a competitive primary and a less competitive general election. That's the last time she saw any opposition at all.
Campaign finance reports: Lensing for House District #78 (sic)
House District 86
Registration: D 11822, R 4662, N 9857, total 26434, D +7160
Incumbent: Mary Mascher, D-Iowa City
The University of Iowa campus gets split; under the old map it was almost all in Mary Mascher's district. Mascher won her first term in 1994 and last saw Republican opposition in 1996. There was a self-starter Some Dude independent in 2008.
Mascher had to move back into her district when the map was announced. That should be the toughest part of the campaign, as the line changes leave this as the second most Democratic seat in the state. The configuration -- most of Iowa City east of Mormon Trek and south of downtown -- is a lot like her 1990s turf. But in a nod to redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, the lines drop south to pick up the city of Hills.
In case you were wondering, Republicans didn't file in either of the Iowa City House seats.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Mascher
Original post 6/22/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 24130, R 9455, N 19380, total 53182, D +14675
Incumbent: Joe Bolkcom, D-Iowa City; holdover seat
Joe Bolkcom went from the Board of Supervisors to the Senate in 1998 and it's been quiet since. This is by far the most Democratic Senate seat, and Republicans last ran a state senate candidate in the Iowa City based district in 1986. Bolkcom's only opposition, primary or general, was an independent in 2006. Joe stays till 2014.
The district doesn't quite draw itself, as Iowa City is just a little bigger than a Senate district. In the 1990s a piece of the north side was carved out and sent to Bob Dvorsky in Coralville; last decade the excess chunk was on the west side instead. That basic configuration stays, with one more west side precinct taken out of Bolkcom's turf and sent to Dvorsky's. There's also a panhandle to the south; see below.
Campaign finance reports: Joe Bolkcom for Iowa Senate
House District 85
Registration: D 12308, R 4793, N 9523, total 26748, D +7515. The number one Democratic district in the state.
Incumbent: Vicki Lensing, D-Iowa City
This becomes an entirely Iowa City district for the first time. In 2000 Lensing had University Heights; last decade she had the rural fragments of East Lucas township. The line across Iowa City for the most part follows Highway 6, Burlington Street, and Muscatine Avenue, with one deviation south (precinct 19). The area north of the line is Lensing's, though her funeral home gets moved into Mary Mascher's district.
When longtime legislative legend Minnette Doderer retired in 2000, Lensing won a competitive primary and a less competitive general election. That's the last time she saw any opposition at all.
Campaign finance reports: Lensing for House District #78 (sic)
House District 86
Registration: D 11822, R 4662, N 9857, total 26434, D +7160
Incumbent: Mary Mascher, D-Iowa City
The University of Iowa campus gets split; under the old map it was almost all in Mary Mascher's district. Mascher won her first term in 1994 and last saw Republican opposition in 1996. There was a self-starter Some Dude independent in 2008.
Mascher had to move back into her district when the map was announced. That should be the toughest part of the campaign, as the line changes leave this as the second most Democratic seat in the state. The configuration -- most of Iowa City east of Mormon Trek and south of downtown -- is a lot like her 1990s turf. But in a nod to redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, the lines drop south to pick up the city of Hills.
In case you were wondering, Republicans didn't file in either of the Iowa City House seats.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Mascher
Original post 6/22/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 42, Iowa House District 83 & 84
Senate District 42
Registration: D 14153, R 11008, N 15695, total 40890, D +3145
Open seat; Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.
Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties.
Fraise's last district had nice clean lines: Henry and Lee counties, no more no less. All of that stays in this seat. To bump the population up, the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson counties are added: Crawfordsville, Brighton, Lockridge and Coppock. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest in the other counties. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off the party registration edge.
The leading Republican, Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, announced before Fraise's retirement was official. Kruse has been in office since 2004; his supervisor term is on the same cycle as the Senate seat so it's up or out for him. While Kruse has county-wide name ID in Lee (59% of the district, with Henry making up 33%), the county elects supervisors by districts. So he's only been a candidate in one-fifth of Lee County (basically the north rural part). Kruse seems to be mindful of the Democratic edge here, citing a "track record of bi-partisan results."
Kruse has a primary against Lee Harder of Hillsboro, who finished a distant third in the 2008 2nd Congressional District primary.
Four Democrats announced for this seat but only three are left. Fort Madison Mayor Steve Ireland dropped out, reportedly for health reasons. The three remaining Dems are:
Kruse for Senate led the field in money on the January 19 report with $4611 on hand. The Rich Taylor Campaign Fund had $528 and Committee to elect Bob Morawitz had $500, all from himself. Amandus announced later.
Party ID favors whichever Dem gets through the primary; Lee County is more Democratic than Henry County is Republican. In recent races, Fraise beat Republican Doug Abolt twice in a row. It was relatively close at 53% in 2004; Fraise improved that to 57 in the 2008 rematch.
House District 83
Registration: D 8975, R 3780, N 7258, total 20035, D +5195
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk
The big change in the southeast corner of the state (Baja Iowa?) happened a decade ago. Fort Madison and Keokuk had historically anchored separate seats, but in 2001 they got put together. In a textbook example of a friends and neighbors primary, Keokuk's Phil Wise edged Fort Madison's Rick Larkin 51 to 49. (Rick landed on his feet, going to the Board of Supervisors.)
When Wise stepped down in 2008, we got a counter-example. Jerry Kearns was one of two Keokuk Democrats facing a lone Fort Madison candidate, Tracy Vance. But Kearns' labor ties proved more important than the geography, as he won with a clear majority and went on to win the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010, and no Republican has filed this year.
Compared to the radical rewrite of 2001, the lines are almost identical. Most of the line is still at about the latitude that demarcates the rest of the Missouri border, wrapping south of Donellson to exclude it, to Fort Madison. At the northeast, Kearns adds two townships, with no significant partisan impact.
Campaign finance reports: Kearns for State Representative Committee
House District 84
Registration: D 5178, R 7228, N 8437, total 20855, R +2050
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant
Unless your name is Vilsack, Henry County is GOP territory. Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Dave Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. Ron Fedler was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008 but lost by a couple thousand votes; Heaton more than doubled him in the 2010 rematch.
The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. Heaton keeps most of the same part of northern Lee County, and expands north and west into Washington and Jefferson. The seemingly small changes boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans. Democrats don't have a candidate yet.
Campaign finance reports: Citizens for Heaton
Original post 6/21/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 14153, R 11008, N 15695, total 40890, D +3145
Open seat; Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.
Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties.
Fraise's last district had nice clean lines: Henry and Lee counties, no more no less. All of that stays in this seat. To bump the population up, the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson counties are added: Crawfordsville, Brighton, Lockridge and Coppock. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest in the other counties. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off the party registration edge.
The leading Republican, Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, announced before Fraise's retirement was official. Kruse has been in office since 2004; his supervisor term is on the same cycle as the Senate seat so it's up or out for him. While Kruse has county-wide name ID in Lee (59% of the district, with Henry making up 33%), the county elects supervisors by districts. So he's only been a candidate in one-fifth of Lee County (basically the north rural part). Kruse seems to be mindful of the Democratic edge here, citing a "track record of bi-partisan results."
Kruse has a primary against Lee Harder of Hillsboro, who finished a distant third in the 2008 2nd Congressional District primary.
Four Democrats announced for this seat but only three are left. Fort Madison Mayor Steve Ireland dropped out, reportedly for health reasons. The three remaining Dems are:
- Fort Madison electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz.
- Donna Amandus, also of Fort Madison, is described as "Democratic activist" in the Keokuk Gate City article, which emphasizes gender.
- Mount Pleasant's Rich Taylor, recently retired working more than 26 years at the
Iowa State Penitentiary in Fort Madison. Does that mean he's the AFSCME guy in this race? If so, Representative Todd would surely welcome him to the Taylor Caucus.
Kruse for Senate led the field in money on the January 19 report with $4611 on hand. The Rich Taylor Campaign Fund had $528 and Committee to elect Bob Morawitz had $500, all from himself. Amandus announced later.
Party ID favors whichever Dem gets through the primary; Lee County is more Democratic than Henry County is Republican. In recent races, Fraise beat Republican Doug Abolt twice in a row. It was relatively close at 53% in 2004; Fraise improved that to 57 in the 2008 rematch.
House District 83
Registration: D 8975, R 3780, N 7258, total 20035, D +5195
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk
The big change in the southeast corner of the state (Baja Iowa?) happened a decade ago. Fort Madison and Keokuk had historically anchored separate seats, but in 2001 they got put together. In a textbook example of a friends and neighbors primary, Keokuk's Phil Wise edged Fort Madison's Rick Larkin 51 to 49. (Rick landed on his feet, going to the Board of Supervisors.)
When Wise stepped down in 2008, we got a counter-example. Jerry Kearns was one of two Keokuk Democrats facing a lone Fort Madison candidate, Tracy Vance. But Kearns' labor ties proved more important than the geography, as he won with a clear majority and went on to win the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010, and no Republican has filed this year.
Compared to the radical rewrite of 2001, the lines are almost identical. Most of the line is still at about the latitude that demarcates the rest of the Missouri border, wrapping south of Donellson to exclude it, to Fort Madison. At the northeast, Kearns adds two townships, with no significant partisan impact.
Campaign finance reports: Kearns for State Representative Committee
House District 84
Registration: D 5178, R 7228, N 8437, total 20855, R +2050
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant
Unless your name is Vilsack, Henry County is GOP territory. Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Dave Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. Ron Fedler was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008 but lost by a couple thousand votes; Heaton more than doubled him in the 2010 rematch.
The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. Heaton keeps most of the same part of northern Lee County, and expands north and west into Washington and Jefferson. The seemingly small changes boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans. Democrats don't have a candidate yet.
Campaign finance reports: Citizens for Heaton
Original post 6/21/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 41, Iowa House District 81 & 82
Senate District 41
Registration: D 15692, R 12289, N 14038, total 42067, D +3403
Incumbent: Mark Chelgren, R-Ottumwa; holdover seat
Enjoy the ride, Chickenman; you won't be back in 2014.
Mark Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. Chelgren has cut an abrasive profile in his first session, but with Democrats in Senate control he's been noticed less that the House Krazy Kaucus of Pearson, Massie and Shaw.
The most Democratic Senate seat held by a Republican keeps a big Democratic edge. The district keeps Ottumwa and a slightly different portion of Wapello County; under the old lines within Wapello, Krieman was ahead by nearly 1000 votes. Davis County also stays in the district. But from there the district goes east, grabbing all of Van Buren and adding most of the population of blue-trending Jefferson County. The district line wraps around the east of Fairfield, bringing it into the district.
Fairfield was home base for Democratic Senator Becky Schmitz, who won in a district that also included Van Buren in 2006. Schmitz, who lost to Sandy Greiner in 2010, is reportedly interested in a comeback. If she can wait a cycle, this looks like excellent turf.
Campaign finance reports: Chelgren for Iowa Senate
House District 81
Registration: D 8937, R 4734, N 6336, total 20019, D +4203
Incumbent: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa
The district Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. Minor changes around the edges, of course. Instead of getting the townships south and west of the city, the district goes east to the county line, picking up Agency, Eldon, and the American Gothic house.
This seat was turbulent a decade ago; Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.
In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. She overwhelmingly won a bizarre 2010 primary over a former county supervisor (short version: the guy resigned, moved out of state, moved back soon after with no explanation). Republicans looked like there were making a serious effort last year with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win.
There were rumors of a primary challenge to Gaskill again, but they didn't materialize. The Republicans will have a primary between Rick McClure and Blake Smith. McClure challenged Gaskill as an independent in 2008.
Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for Chelgren's fluke win. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue again.
Campaign finance reports: Gaskill for State Representative
House District 82
Registration: D 6755, R 7555, N 7702, total 22048, R +800
Incumbent Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield (Kurt Swaim, D-Bloomfield, retiring)
When Democrat John Whitaker resigned to take a federal Department of Agriculture job in the summer of 2009, Fairfield became the center of statewide attention. Anti-marriage equality groups pumped huge amounts of out of state money into Fairfield, and Democrats responded with an all-out effort as well. Retired drivers ed teacher Curt Hanson prevailed by just 127 votes over Republican Steve Burgmeier. Two independent conservative candidates, representing the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea, were in the race, and they drew more votes than the difference.
The rematch in the fall of 2010 was just the two of them. Despite the lack of Splitters!, the annus horriblis for Democrats and the fact that he was now just one of 100 races instead of the only game in town, Hanson increased his margin over Burgmeier to more than 1000 votes.
So even though this turf leans Republican, Hanson seems to be in good shape. While the lines change, the party balance is about the same. The new district has all of Van Buren and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield, from Hanson's old seat, and only Davis from fellow Democrat Kurt Swaim's. The redistricting pair was resolved when Swaim retired.
Republicans have a primary. Bloomfield's James Johnson lost to Swaim by just 76 votes in 2010, and was last spotted on Team Bachmann. Campaign for Liberty activist Jeff Shipley of Fairfield ran for Iowa City council in 2009. Opposite ends of the district, and Fairfield has a strong libertarian streak.
Johnson for St Rep had $914 cash on hand on the January 19 report, all left over from 2010. Curt Hanson for State Representative has been actively fundraising and reported $6272 on hand.
Original post 6/20/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 15692, R 12289, N 14038, total 42067, D +3403
Incumbent: Mark Chelgren, R-Ottumwa; holdover seat
Enjoy the ride, Chickenman; you won't be back in 2014.
Mark Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. Chelgren has cut an abrasive profile in his first session, but with Democrats in Senate control he's been noticed less that the House Krazy Kaucus of Pearson, Massie and Shaw.
The most Democratic Senate seat held by a Republican keeps a big Democratic edge. The district keeps Ottumwa and a slightly different portion of Wapello County; under the old lines within Wapello, Krieman was ahead by nearly 1000 votes. Davis County also stays in the district. But from there the district goes east, grabbing all of Van Buren and adding most of the population of blue-trending Jefferson County. The district line wraps around the east of Fairfield, bringing it into the district.
Fairfield was home base for Democratic Senator Becky Schmitz, who won in a district that also included Van Buren in 2006. Schmitz, who lost to Sandy Greiner in 2010, is reportedly interested in a comeback. If she can wait a cycle, this looks like excellent turf.
Campaign finance reports: Chelgren for Iowa Senate
House District 81
Registration: D 8937, R 4734, N 6336, total 20019, D +4203
Incumbent: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa
The district Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. Minor changes around the edges, of course. Instead of getting the townships south and west of the city, the district goes east to the county line, picking up Agency, Eldon, and the American Gothic house.
This seat was turbulent a decade ago; Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.
In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. She overwhelmingly won a bizarre 2010 primary over a former county supervisor (short version: the guy resigned, moved out of state, moved back soon after with no explanation). Republicans looked like there were making a serious effort last year with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win.
There were rumors of a primary challenge to Gaskill again, but they didn't materialize. The Republicans will have a primary between Rick McClure and Blake Smith. McClure challenged Gaskill as an independent in 2008.
Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for Chelgren's fluke win. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue again.
Campaign finance reports: Gaskill for State Representative
House District 82
Registration: D 6755, R 7555, N 7702, total 22048, R +800
Incumbent Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield (Kurt Swaim, D-Bloomfield, retiring)
When Democrat John Whitaker resigned to take a federal Department of Agriculture job in the summer of 2009, Fairfield became the center of statewide attention. Anti-marriage equality groups pumped huge amounts of out of state money into Fairfield, and Democrats responded with an all-out effort as well. Retired drivers ed teacher Curt Hanson prevailed by just 127 votes over Republican Steve Burgmeier. Two independent conservative candidates, representing the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea, were in the race, and they drew more votes than the difference.
The rematch in the fall of 2010 was just the two of them. Despite the lack of Splitters!, the annus horriblis for Democrats and the fact that he was now just one of 100 races instead of the only game in town, Hanson increased his margin over Burgmeier to more than 1000 votes.
So even though this turf leans Republican, Hanson seems to be in good shape. While the lines change, the party balance is about the same. The new district has all of Van Buren and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield, from Hanson's old seat, and only Davis from fellow Democrat Kurt Swaim's. The redistricting pair was resolved when Swaim retired.
Republicans have a primary. Bloomfield's James Johnson lost to Swaim by just 76 votes in 2010, and was last spotted on Team Bachmann. Campaign for Liberty activist Jeff Shipley of Fairfield ran for Iowa City council in 2009. Opposite ends of the district, and Fairfield has a strong libertarian streak.
Johnson for St Rep had $914 cash on hand on the January 19 report, all left over from 2010. Curt Hanson for State Representative has been actively fundraising and reported $6272 on hand.
Original post 6/20/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 40, Iowa House District 79 & 80
Senate District 40
Registration: D 11309, R 16838, N 14388, total 42561, R +5529
Open seat; Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa, retiring
Sorry, Dems, but this one's gone. Even if Rielly had stayed in the race, it was probably gone. It's the seventh most Republican Senate District in the state, and Republicans had recruited a strong challenger in Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom.
Rielly's late retirement after two terms on light-red turf is probably a blessing in disguise. Rather than using resources in a difficult fight to save an incumbent, Mike Gronstal can write this seat off -- at this point, Democrats don't even have a candidate -- and focus on some of his other tough races.
It's hard to even call this "Rielly's" district. His home base of Oskaloosa and the eastern half of Mahaska is all that overlaps. The old seat went north and east: Keokuk and Poweshiek counties, most of Iowa (except Marengo) and a sliver of Tama. This district picks up the rest of Mahaska, all of Monroe and Appanoose, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella, It also gets rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of the Democrats from the city itself.
Rozenboom even managed to clear the primary field. Potential rival Mark Doland dropped out in January and endorsed Rozenboom, but expressed interest in Rozenboom's county supervisor seat. (Like Sally Stutsman in Johnson, Rozenboom is in the middle of a four year term.)
Campaign finance reports: Rozenboom for Senate
House District 79
Registration: D 4451, R 9837, N 7158, total 21460, R +5386
Incumbent: Guy Vander Linden, R-Oskaloosa (Jim Van Engelenhoeven, R-Pella, retiring)
This is the Republican version of the Democratic pair-up in Lee County ten years ago. Two similar sized cities that had always been the anchors of different legislative districts got thrown together. In this corner: Oskaloosa, population 11,463. In that corner, weighing in at 10,352, the world heavyweight champion of tulips and windows, Pella.
But unlike the epic Keokuk vs. Ft. Madison Democratic primary of 2002, this one got worked out. Pella's Jim Van Engelenhoeven is retiring, and freshman Guy Vander Linden inherits what's now a safe seat. Democrat Chris Wilson of Oskaloosa is going to give it a try.
Two years ago it was a very different story, as Vander Linden beat two-term Democrat Eric Palmer last year in a dead-even Oskaloosa-Grinnell seat. The new district has only Pella and surrounding Lake Prairie township in Marion County. In Mahaska the line includes Osky and the enclave of University Park, plus the geographic west half of the county: New Sharon, Beacon, Leighton.
Campaign finance reports: VANDER LINDEN for Iowa
House District 80
Registration: D 6858, R 7001, N 7230, total 21101, R +143
No Incumbent
Mike Gronstal's road to 26 senators may not run through Oskaloosa anymore. But Kevin McCarthy's route from minority leader to Speaker definitely goes through Albia.
No-incumbent House 80 is a very close swing seat: just barely Democratic before the caucuses, just barely Republican after. It includes all of Appanoose and Monroe Counties, western Wapello and eastern Mahaska; it comes up to the city limits of Ottumwa and Oskaloosa but includes neither.
Democrats have an A-list candidate from the first family of Monroe County politics. Joe Judge, a teacher and former county party chair, is the son of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and former Sen. John Judge (who succeeded Patty in the Senate when she became Secretary of Agriculture).
Larry Sheets of Moulton, a retired engineer and former school board member, is the Republican. Judge for Iowa is off to an early money lead, with $9694 on hand as of the January 19 report. Sheets for Iowa House had $326.
Original post 6/17/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 11309, R 16838, N 14388, total 42561, R +5529
Open seat; Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa, retiring
Sorry, Dems, but this one's gone. Even if Rielly had stayed in the race, it was probably gone. It's the seventh most Republican Senate District in the state, and Republicans had recruited a strong challenger in Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom.
Rielly's late retirement after two terms on light-red turf is probably a blessing in disguise. Rather than using resources in a difficult fight to save an incumbent, Mike Gronstal can write this seat off -- at this point, Democrats don't even have a candidate -- and focus on some of his other tough races.
It's hard to even call this "Rielly's" district. His home base of Oskaloosa and the eastern half of Mahaska is all that overlaps. The old seat went north and east: Keokuk and Poweshiek counties, most of Iowa (except Marengo) and a sliver of Tama. This district picks up the rest of Mahaska, all of Monroe and Appanoose, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella, It also gets rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of the Democrats from the city itself.
Rozenboom even managed to clear the primary field. Potential rival Mark Doland dropped out in January and endorsed Rozenboom, but expressed interest in Rozenboom's county supervisor seat. (Like Sally Stutsman in Johnson, Rozenboom is in the middle of a four year term.)
Campaign finance reports: Rozenboom for Senate
House District 79
Registration: D 4451, R 9837, N 7158, total 21460, R +5386
Incumbent: Guy Vander Linden, R-Oskaloosa (Jim Van Engelenhoeven, R-Pella, retiring)
This is the Republican version of the Democratic pair-up in Lee County ten years ago. Two similar sized cities that had always been the anchors of different legislative districts got thrown together. In this corner: Oskaloosa, population 11,463. In that corner, weighing in at 10,352, the world heavyweight champion of tulips and windows, Pella.
But unlike the epic Keokuk vs. Ft. Madison Democratic primary of 2002, this one got worked out. Pella's Jim Van Engelenhoeven is retiring, and freshman Guy Vander Linden inherits what's now a safe seat. Democrat Chris Wilson of Oskaloosa is going to give it a try.
Two years ago it was a very different story, as Vander Linden beat two-term Democrat Eric Palmer last year in a dead-even Oskaloosa-Grinnell seat. The new district has only Pella and surrounding Lake Prairie township in Marion County. In Mahaska the line includes Osky and the enclave of University Park, plus the geographic west half of the county: New Sharon, Beacon, Leighton.
Campaign finance reports: VANDER LINDEN for Iowa
House District 80
Registration: D 6858, R 7001, N 7230, total 21101, R +143
No Incumbent
Mike Gronstal's road to 26 senators may not run through Oskaloosa anymore. But Kevin McCarthy's route from minority leader to Speaker definitely goes through Albia.
No-incumbent House 80 is a very close swing seat: just barely Democratic before the caucuses, just barely Republican after. It includes all of Appanoose and Monroe Counties, western Wapello and eastern Mahaska; it comes up to the city limits of Ottumwa and Oskaloosa but includes neither.
Democrats have an A-list candidate from the first family of Monroe County politics. Joe Judge, a teacher and former county party chair, is the son of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and former Sen. John Judge (who succeeded Patty in the Senate when she became Secretary of Agriculture).
Larry Sheets of Moulton, a retired engineer and former school board member, is the Republican. Judge for Iowa is off to an early money lead, with $9694 on hand as of the January 19 report. Sheets for Iowa House had $326.
Original post 6/17/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 39, Iowa House District 77 & 78
Senate District 39
Registration: D 13047, R 12826, N 15368, total 41270, D +221
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota; holdover seat
Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map. She said it was about the lines around Hills, which are a bit goofy but that's because of the city limits. (There's a long story behind that.) But methinks it was really about getting handed a district that's half in Johnson County.
Greiner has served two separate tenures in each side of the Capitol. First elected to the House in 1992, she moved to the Senate in 2000. But she got the short straw in a redistricting triple-up and went back, begrudgingly, to the House in `02. In 2008 she stepped down, hoping to serve on the Republican National Committee, but lost that race at the state convention. Scarcely missing a beat, she got heavily involved in 2010: an early backer of the "draft" Branstad campaign, a big mover and shaker in "independent" expenditure group the American Future Fund, and as a candidate. Greiner knocked off first-term Democrat Becky Schmitz in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.
Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. but the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that. Her 2002-2008 House seat had a GOP registration edge of more than 1700, and the 2010 Senate district increased that to more than 2100. Even her bit of Johnson County was all rural and included the county's most Republican townships.
Now Democrats have the advantage, and her new Johnson County turf has a distinctly just-built suburban flavor. Maybe the best news for Greiner is she has an odd district number and holds over till 2014.
Campaign finance reports: Citizens to Elect Greiner
House District 77
Registration: D 7545, R 5458, N 7982, total 21000, D +2087
No incumbent
High growth North Liberty anchors a new, all Johnson County seat which covers the whole west and south border of the People's Republic. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills. The various pieces used to belong mostly to Dave Jacoby, Nate Willems, and Jarad Klein.
Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.
The biggest excitement in this race may be the aftermath. Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and would leave the Board of Supervisors mid-term if elected to the House.
Steve Sherman of North Liberty is a Christian author who's also done a few guest editorials that reveal an... interesting rhetorical style. He also hosted a house party for Rick Santorum back before the caucuses. He's the first Republican to file for an all-Johnson seat since the 2003 Dave Jacoby special election.
Campaign finance reports: Stutsman for State House
House District 78
Registration: D 5502, R 7368, N 7386, total 20270, R +1866
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota (Betty DeBoef, R-What Cheer, retiring) Primary challenge
When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.
The new lines help Klein, even though the party balance doesn't change much: the seat sheds all of the People's Republic of Johnson County where Marek earned his 2008 winning margin. Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and a little bit of Washington (Crawfordsville and Brighton). In exchange he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County... and with it a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef, who waited till early November to announce retirement.
Klein still gets a primary, though: church administrator Priscilla Marlar of rural Washington filed. She appears to be the daughter of Rick Marlar, who ran a tea party-ish primary against Sandra Greiner in 2010.
No Democratic names have emerged; didn't we HAVE this seat two years ago?
Campaign finance reports: Klein for Statehouse
Original post 6/16/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 13047, R 12826, N 15368, total 41270, D +221
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota; holdover seat
Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map. She said it was about the lines around Hills, which are a bit goofy but that's because of the city limits. (There's a long story behind that.) But methinks it was really about getting handed a district that's half in Johnson County.
Greiner has served two separate tenures in each side of the Capitol. First elected to the House in 1992, she moved to the Senate in 2000. But she got the short straw in a redistricting triple-up and went back, begrudgingly, to the House in `02. In 2008 she stepped down, hoping to serve on the Republican National Committee, but lost that race at the state convention. Scarcely missing a beat, she got heavily involved in 2010: an early backer of the "draft" Branstad campaign, a big mover and shaker in "independent" expenditure group the American Future Fund, and as a candidate. Greiner knocked off first-term Democrat Becky Schmitz in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.
Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. but the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that. Her 2002-2008 House seat had a GOP registration edge of more than 1700, and the 2010 Senate district increased that to more than 2100. Even her bit of Johnson County was all rural and included the county's most Republican townships.
Now Democrats have the advantage, and her new Johnson County turf has a distinctly just-built suburban flavor. Maybe the best news for Greiner is she has an odd district number and holds over till 2014.
Campaign finance reports: Citizens to Elect Greiner
House District 77
Registration: D 7545, R 5458, N 7982, total 21000, D +2087
No incumbent
High growth North Liberty anchors a new, all Johnson County seat which covers the whole west and south border of the People's Republic. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills. The various pieces used to belong mostly to Dave Jacoby, Nate Willems, and Jarad Klein.
Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.
The biggest excitement in this race may be the aftermath. Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and would leave the Board of Supervisors mid-term if elected to the House.
Steve Sherman of North Liberty is a Christian author who's also done a few guest editorials that reveal an... interesting rhetorical style. He also hosted a house party for Rick Santorum back before the caucuses. He's the first Republican to file for an all-Johnson seat since the 2003 Dave Jacoby special election.
Campaign finance reports: Stutsman for State House
House District 78
Registration: D 5502, R 7368, N 7386, total 20270, R +1866
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota (Betty DeBoef, R-What Cheer, retiring) Primary challenge
When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.
The new lines help Klein, even though the party balance doesn't change much: the seat sheds all of the People's Republic of Johnson County where Marek earned his 2008 winning margin. Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and a little bit of Washington (Crawfordsville and Brighton). In exchange he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County... and with it a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef, who waited till early November to announce retirement.
Klein still gets a primary, though: church administrator Priscilla Marlar of rural Washington filed. She appears to be the daughter of Rick Marlar, who ran a tea party-ish primary against Sandra Greiner in 2010.
No Democratic names have emerged; didn't we HAVE this seat two years ago?
Campaign finance reports: Klein for Statehouse
Original post 6/16/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 38, Iowa House District 75 & 76
Senate District 38
Registration: D 12758, R 13134, N 18557, total 44483, R +376
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone; contested Democratic primary
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
This is a swing district; since Map Day the caucuses have flipped a slim D registration edge to a slim R edge. It's also mostly new turf for Benton-based Kapucian, who picks up all of Iowa County (he had a piece before) and significantly all of Poweshiek.
Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic. Bleeding Heartland has a lengthy write-up that pre-dates Volk's announcement.
Campaign finance reports: Kapucian for State Senate (all the Democrats started late)
House District 75
Registration: D 5755, R 6247, N 9352, total 21365, R +492
Incumbent: Dawn Pettengill, R-Mt. Auburn
Pettengill took this seat, with a lot of Democratic party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, defecting on many key issues. Finally, on the last day of the 2007 session, she defected from the party entirely and joined the Republicans.
The Democratic response was 1) don't let the door hit you on the way out 2) see you at the polls. But Pettingill won with 55% in 2008, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. She then went unopposed in 2010 in one of the Democrats' more painful recruiting failures.
They didn't let that happen again, as small-business owner Sandra Cronbaugh of Marengo is running. The swing seat numbers, and the hard feelings, are going to keep this seat on the Democratic target list.
But the turf is familiar, as Pettingill keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House District and the county stays whole.
Campaign finance report: Pettengill for Iowans
House District 76
Registration: D 7003, R 6887, N 9205, total 23118, D +116
No Incumbent
While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.
Democrats united early behind Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly, who won her first term in 2009. She has a ward seat, so she's only been elected out of the southwest quarter of the city (campus is the northeast). But that's still some name ID in the district's biggest city.
Republicans haven't settled things. Mark Dix of Brooklyn announced but then dropped out early in favor of business owner David Maxwell, to avoid a primary. But later, county supervisor Larry Wilson got in, so there's a primary after all.
Maxwell for State House had raised $700 by the January 19 campaign finance report, $500 of that from himself. Friends for Rachel Bly had $6,964.
Original post 6/15/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12758, R 13134, N 18557, total 44483, R +376
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone; contested Democratic primary
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
This is a swing district; since Map Day the caucuses have flipped a slim D registration edge to a slim R edge. It's also mostly new turf for Benton-based Kapucian, who picks up all of Iowa County (he had a piece before) and significantly all of Poweshiek.
Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic. Bleeding Heartland has a lengthy write-up that pre-dates Volk's announcement.
Campaign finance reports: Kapucian for State Senate (all the Democrats started late)
House District 75
Registration: D 5755, R 6247, N 9352, total 21365, R +492
Incumbent: Dawn Pettengill, R-Mt. Auburn
Pettengill took this seat, with a lot of Democratic party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, defecting on many key issues. Finally, on the last day of the 2007 session, she defected from the party entirely and joined the Republicans.
The Democratic response was 1) don't let the door hit you on the way out 2) see you at the polls. But Pettingill won with 55% in 2008, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. She then went unopposed in 2010 in one of the Democrats' more painful recruiting failures.
They didn't let that happen again, as small-business owner Sandra Cronbaugh of Marengo is running. The swing seat numbers, and the hard feelings, are going to keep this seat on the Democratic target list.
But the turf is familiar, as Pettingill keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House District and the county stays whole.
Campaign finance report: Pettengill for Iowans
House District 76
Registration: D 7003, R 6887, N 9205, total 23118, D +116
No Incumbent
While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.
Democrats united early behind Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly, who won her first term in 2009. She has a ward seat, so she's only been elected out of the southwest quarter of the city (campus is the northeast). But that's still some name ID in the district's biggest city.
Republicans haven't settled things. Mark Dix of Brooklyn announced but then dropped out early in favor of business owner David Maxwell, to avoid a primary. But later, county supervisor Larry Wilson got in, so there's a primary after all.
Maxwell for State House had raised $700 by the January 19 campaign finance report, $500 of that from himself. Friends for Rachel Bly had $6,964.
Original post 6/15/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
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