Cutting the deal in New Hampshire
Well, we can cross Judd Gregg off the which GOP senator gets primaried list, as he leaves the Senate, goes to Commerce, and gets a GOP replacement. If memory serves me right, the last time a governor willingly crossed party lines with an appointment was in 1960 in Oregon, in a clear placeholder move. (This doesn't count Wyoming last year, when the Democratic governor was required by law to name a Republican).
With Holder confirmed at Justice last night, Gregg completes the cabinet... or nearly so. Hilda Solis at Labor is getting stalled, but that day will come. Daschle is in some real trouble at Health and Human Services, and the left doesn't have Obama's back on this one. There's a not so secret hope that Daschle tanks and we get another shot at what we really wanted: Howard Dean.
As for the GOP Senate Infight Primary Watch, ... is it J.D. Hayworth taking on... McCain? That would be a home-state repudiation rivaling Michael Dukakis (chosen successor drops out of primary at last minute, 16 years of GOP governors in most Democratic state in union... now THAT'S a repudiation.)
Iowa tends to keep its governors, not repudiate them. Stuart Rothenberg runs through the 2009-10 governors races and lists Chet as Currently Safe. But Politico says the 2010 governor races that'll be on the radar are the ones where redistricting is important. Iowa's nonpartisan system is considered a model for the nation, so Culver doesn't matter to the map.
Another way Iowa's a model for the nation is our judicial retention elections. Sure, all those YES and NO lines at the bottom of the general election ballot are mind-numbing... but what if we had partisan judge elections? You get stuff like Roy "Ten Commandments" Moore in Alabama.
Ah, Alabama. Remember when Obama used to use that "Alabama/Yo Mama" joke about his name, Iowans?
The worst.
Showing posts with label 2010 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 Election. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Monday, February 02, 2009
Latham Targeted
Politico: Latham Targeted for 2010
"The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a radio advertising blitz against 28 House Republicans who voted against the stimulus package last week," notes Josh Kraushaar at The Politico's Scorecard. "The list of targeted Republicans usually approximates the party’s top targets for the upcoming election. Given the Democrats’ success over the past two elections, the list shows there aren’t too many pickup opportunities left for the majority party."
The companion article lists the list and gives us some ad copy:
So perhaps the DCCC is taking my advice on at least one half of my two part prep for redistricting plan. Maybe they'll follow up on part two?
"The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a radio advertising blitz against 28 House Republicans who voted against the stimulus package last week," notes Josh Kraushaar at The Politico's Scorecard. "The list of targeted Republicans usually approximates the party’s top targets for the upcoming election. Given the Democrats’ success over the past two elections, the list shows there aren’t too many pickup opportunities left for the majority party."
The companion article lists the list and gives us some ad copy:
The following ad is the districts of Representatives Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21), Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02), Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), Elton Gallegy (CA-24), Tom Latham (IA-04), Donald Manzullo (IL-16), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Dave Reichert (WA-08), James Sensenbrenner (WI-05), Bill Young (FL-10), and Don Young (AK-AL):
Did you know Congressman Thad McCotter opposed over $526 million to modernize crumbling Michigan schools, but supported building new schools in Iraq? Times are tough, tell Thad McCotter to put American jobs first.
So perhaps the DCCC is taking my advice on at least one half of my two part prep for redistricting plan. Maybe they'll follow up on part two?
Monday, January 12, 2009
Grassley Retirement Speculation
Grassley Quitting? NOT.
In the aftermath of George Voinovich's Monday retirement announcement, Senate Guru thinks Chuck Grassley will be the next senior Republican to bail:
And in a reference to Voinivich's speech, Senate Guru offers this touching vision:
What Senate Guru misses is that one of those grandchildren is exactly why Grassley will NOT retire in 2010.
As the Legislature convenes today, Rep. Pat Grassley starts his second term at age 25. He's too young to take over for Grandpa next year... but in 2016, assuming all goes according to plan, Pat's got a decade of legislative experience under his belt at age 33.
Of course, my preferred solution is to beat Chuck next year and make the question of dynastic succession moot. Oh, wait, I better not say anything to the governor about dynastic succession.
But wouldn't a Chet Culver 2010 avenge-my-father Senate race be a good story? We could hire Mandy Patinkin for the ads.
If Senate Guru is right and I'm wrong... look for a relatively quick shakeup at the Department of Agriculture.
In the aftermath of George Voinovich's Monday retirement announcement, Senate Guru thinks Chuck Grassley will be the next senior Republican to bail:
With such a sizable Democratic majority in the Senate, Grassley must know that he'll never be Finance Committee Chairman again. It will be several cycles, at least, before Senate Republicans even have a reasonable shot at getting back to 50 seats. Does Grassley want to spend another six years, including the first years of his 80's, in a guaranteed minority in which the only question is whether or not the GOP could sustain a filibuster?
And in a reference to Voinivich's speech, Senate Guru offers this touching vision:
I would imagine that spending your day playing with your grandchildren is a lot more enjoyable than spending your day waking up at 5am to catch a shuttle from Des Moines to Washington in order to take votes you know your caucus will lose, unable to make any progress on your desired agenda, and then staying up until midnight with policy meetings, political fundraisers, and personal fundraising calls that will all be in vain anyway given the relative weakness of your caucus' minority.
What Senate Guru misses is that one of those grandchildren is exactly why Grassley will NOT retire in 2010.
As the Legislature convenes today, Rep. Pat Grassley starts his second term at age 25. He's too young to take over for Grandpa next year... but in 2016, assuming all goes according to plan, Pat's got a decade of legislative experience under his belt at age 33.
Of course, my preferred solution is to beat Chuck next year and make the question of dynastic succession moot. Oh, wait, I better not say anything to the governor about dynastic succession.
But wouldn't a Chet Culver 2010 avenge-my-father Senate race be a good story? We could hire Mandy Patinkin for the ads.
If Senate Guru is right and I'm wrong... look for a relatively quick shakeup at the Department of Agriculture.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Grassley 48, Vilsack 44
Poll: Grassley 48, Vilsack 44
Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos gives us the above number in a hypothetical 2010 Senate race. (Note to Christie's fans, the poll specified TOM Vilsack.)
Can Iowa Democrats actually envision knocking off Grassley? We haven't dreamed of it since at least 1986. The last three cycles -- and bless Jean Lloyd-Jones, Dave Osterberg and Art Small -- the state party has taken the approach of "don't waste the money, throw some Johnson County lefty out there to lose." (Yes, I know Osterberg is from Mt. Vernon, but I always wanted to annex Mt. Vernon. I'd rather have the bump on the top of the county, instead of Lone Tree at the bottom.)
Vilsack, lost in the cabinet shuffle, could be looking for something to do. Vilsack has the network to raise the money he needs, both in Iowa and beyond, and he'll clearly be the national party's pick for the seat.
Watch first to see if he does any work on rebuilding his Democratic base. Part of that is our own fault: we Iowa Dems have had so many big wins in the last few years that we forget just how big a deal it what when TV took back Terrace Hill after 30 years.
From an Iowa-base perspective, Vilsack backed the wrong horse when he left the presidential race, and to some extent he's seen as a Hillary, DLC Democrat in a Barack Obama party. But he did what he needed to do in the fall, and the Hillary vs. Obama war is fading into the distance with Clinton in the cabinet. Watch to see if the fiery populist Tom of 1998 is seen at get-togethers around the state. (He may still have to answer to the party activists for signing English Only, though. Was he really that scared of Doug freakin' Gross?)
So, would a Vilsack candidacy vault this race to the top of the charts? Or will Vilsack be to 2010 what Jim Slattery in Kansas, Scott Kleeb in Nebraska, Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi and Larry LaRocco in Idaho were to 2008: candidacies that looked strong on paper but just never caught on?
Those states are all redder than Iowa. The better analogy may be Tom Allen in Maine, a state that like Iowa is trending Democratic with an incumbent Republican, Susan Collins, who talked more moderate than she really was. But Allen couldn't make it stick the way Jeff Merkley did in Oregon against another fake moderate, Gordon Smith.
Grassley's last tough race was as a challenger in 1980. Given the long time since he's had to break a sweat, you might think Grassley's campaign skills have atrophied, like Bill Roth in Delaware, who lost after 5 terms in 2000. A hotshot newcomer might be able to make the Career Politician case against Grassley--this year marks his 50th consecutive year in office. But Grassley has always tended carefully to the roots and maintained the popular aw-shucks persona. And Vilsack has a little bit too long of a resume, as a mayor, legislator and two-term governor, to make that argument.
Kos thinks Grassley is likely to retire at 77, but I think he'll (try to) hold out one more term till 2016 and try to hand the seat off to his grandson, state Rep. Pat Grassley, who's not quite old enough yet.
So Grassley's in, and we'll watch to see if Vilsack is too. Will the V For Victory logo be back?
Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos gives us the above number in a hypothetical 2010 Senate race. (Note to Christie's fans, the poll specified TOM Vilsack.)
Can Iowa Democrats actually envision knocking off Grassley? We haven't dreamed of it since at least 1986. The last three cycles -- and bless Jean Lloyd-Jones, Dave Osterberg and Art Small -- the state party has taken the approach of "don't waste the money, throw some Johnson County lefty out there to lose." (Yes, I know Osterberg is from Mt. Vernon, but I always wanted to annex Mt. Vernon. I'd rather have the bump on the top of the county, instead of Lone Tree at the bottom.)
Vilsack, lost in the cabinet shuffle, could be looking for something to do. Vilsack has the network to raise the money he needs, both in Iowa and beyond, and he'll clearly be the national party's pick for the seat. Watch first to see if he does any work on rebuilding his Democratic base. Part of that is our own fault: we Iowa Dems have had so many big wins in the last few years that we forget just how big a deal it what when TV took back Terrace Hill after 30 years.
From an Iowa-base perspective, Vilsack backed the wrong horse when he left the presidential race, and to some extent he's seen as a Hillary, DLC Democrat in a Barack Obama party. But he did what he needed to do in the fall, and the Hillary vs. Obama war is fading into the distance with Clinton in the cabinet. Watch to see if the fiery populist Tom of 1998 is seen at get-togethers around the state. (He may still have to answer to the party activists for signing English Only, though. Was he really that scared of Doug freakin' Gross?)
So, would a Vilsack candidacy vault this race to the top of the charts? Or will Vilsack be to 2010 what Jim Slattery in Kansas, Scott Kleeb in Nebraska, Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi and Larry LaRocco in Idaho were to 2008: candidacies that looked strong on paper but just never caught on?
Those states are all redder than Iowa. The better analogy may be Tom Allen in Maine, a state that like Iowa is trending Democratic with an incumbent Republican, Susan Collins, who talked more moderate than she really was. But Allen couldn't make it stick the way Jeff Merkley did in Oregon against another fake moderate, Gordon Smith.
Grassley's last tough race was as a challenger in 1980. Given the long time since he's had to break a sweat, you might think Grassley's campaign skills have atrophied, like Bill Roth in Delaware, who lost after 5 terms in 2000. A hotshot newcomer might be able to make the Career Politician case against Grassley--this year marks his 50th consecutive year in office. But Grassley has always tended carefully to the roots and maintained the popular aw-shucks persona. And Vilsack has a little bit too long of a resume, as a mayor, legislator and two-term governor, to make that argument.
Kos thinks Grassley is likely to retire at 77, but I think he'll (try to) hold out one more term till 2016 and try to hand the seat off to his grandson, state Rep. Pat Grassley, who's not quite old enough yet.
So Grassley's in, and we'll watch to see if Vilsack is too. Will the V For Victory logo be back?
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