Senate District 6
Registration: D 10324, R 13414, N 15517, total 39281, R +3090
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring)
Could
the Democrats win Steve King's old legislative seat? Here's another one
where the Republican primary outcome gives Democrats an opportunity on
less than ideal turf.
Adam Schweers had the backing of both Rod
Roberts and Terry Branstad, but drew criticism for launching his Senate
bid just weeks after taking office as Carroll's mayor. Crawford County
supervisor Mark Segebart,
running to the right of Schweers, prevailed in the primary 47-40%, A
third candidate, Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede , was an
afterthought at 13%.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll is a solid candidate with strong family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin.
The
seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has
pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford that the retiring Steve
Kettering held for 10 years, after taking over from King in a special
election. Tiny Audubon County is added.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Mark Segebart for Senate , Bruner For State Senate
Bruner is ahead with $11,086.70 on hand. Segebart emptied the tanks to
win the primary and has re-fueled back up to $5,807.15 since -- but
$5000 of that is a self-loan.
House District 11
Registration: D 4167, R 7026, N 6965, total 18162, R +2859
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake, unopposed
Worthan
has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66%
in 2008 and 74% in 2010. In the new map he gains about 500 Republicans,
in some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena
Vista counties, no more, no less.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Worthan for Iowa House
House District 12
Registration: D 6157, R 6388, N 8552, total 21119, R +231
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
Muhlbauer
was the only good news Democrats got in 2010. Republicans nominated an
extremely weak candidate when nice guy Rod Roberts stepped down in a
quixotic bid for governor. The moderate Muhlbauer was a good fit for the
district and scored one of the few Democratic gains anywhere in the
country.
Muhlbauer cast some overly cautious votes on choice
and marriage, and is one of just two Democrats in contested races (the
other is Helen Miller of Ft. Dodge) to win the endorsement of the Iowa
Business and Industry PAC. That would indicate that his opponent,
Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, isn't a high priority.
The
line changes turned a slim Republican registration edge into a slim
Democratic edge; the Senate primary flipped it back to plurality R, but
it's nevertheless a little better than the old seat. Carroll County
still dominates the district.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Muhlbauer for State Representative, Bornhoft for Iowa House Muhlbauer has $9,226.56 on hand; Bornhoft, just $366.
Senate District 6, House District 11 & 12: District of the Day 1 - 5/02/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Iowa House District 11. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa House District 11. Show all posts
Friday, August 17, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 6, Iowa House District 11 & 12
Senate District 6
Registration: D 11228, R 13883, N 17216, total 42354, R +2655
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring) Contested Republican primary
I was a little surprised by Kettering's retirement, in part because the 2.5 term incumbent probably got the least changed rural district in the state. The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. Tiny Audubon County is added.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll got in early and drew positive press. The combination of a solid candidate and family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin -- puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
Republicans reportedly struggled for a candidate in the wake of Kettering's retirement. Now they have three: Carroll's newly elected mayor, Adam Schweers, Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, and Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede (he has the relatively high-profile job of K9 officer). If friends and neighbors becomes a factor, Carroll County is about twice the population of Sac. But the two together are only half the district.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the mutual benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4643, R 7477, N 7924, total 20049, R +2834
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010 year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less. No Democratic names yet.
Gary Worthan for Iowa House finance reports
House District 12
Registration: D 6585, R 6406, N 9292, total 22305, D +179
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
How does a late-starting replacement candidate score the only Democratic gain of the horrible, horrible 2010 cycle?
First, your five term nice guy Republican incumbent, Rod Roberts, runs a long-shot race for governor. Then Republicans nominate "the worst candidate ever," Daniel Dirkx, who clearly has absolutely no idea what the job entails. Then the Democratic nominee steps down for some reason, and you're there: a county supervisor whose dad served in the legislature before you. It's such a good thing that even leading Republicans in Carroll endorse you and you win by a whopping 1900 votes.
This is how Dan Muhlbauer arrived in the legislature. He's carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few high profile votes. He voted with the GOP on marriage equality and nuclear power votes, and was the only Democrat to support Kim Pearson's total abortion ban bill that even most Republicans opposed.
Daniel Muhlbauer for State Representative has $10,265 of mostly PAC money in the bank. His opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, joined the race right at the filing deadline. Carroll County ambulance director and tea partier Bill Fish discussed running but didn't follow through.
The line changes turn a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County. The changes turn a 195 Republican Registration edge into an equally slim Democratic edge.
Original post 5/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 11228, R 13883, N 17216, total 42354, R +2655
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring) Contested Republican primary
I was a little surprised by Kettering's retirement, in part because the 2.5 term incumbent probably got the least changed rural district in the state. The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. Tiny Audubon County is added.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll got in early and drew positive press. The combination of a solid candidate and family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin -- puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
Republicans reportedly struggled for a candidate in the wake of Kettering's retirement. Now they have three: Carroll's newly elected mayor, Adam Schweers, Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, and Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede (he has the relatively high-profile job of K9 officer). If friends and neighbors becomes a factor, Carroll County is about twice the population of Sac. But the two together are only half the district.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the mutual benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4643, R 7477, N 7924, total 20049, R +2834
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010 year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less. No Democratic names yet.
Gary Worthan for Iowa House finance reports
House District 12
Registration: D 6585, R 6406, N 9292, total 22305, D +179
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
How does a late-starting replacement candidate score the only Democratic gain of the horrible, horrible 2010 cycle?
First, your five term nice guy Republican incumbent, Rod Roberts, runs a long-shot race for governor. Then Republicans nominate "the worst candidate ever," Daniel Dirkx, who clearly has absolutely no idea what the job entails. Then the Democratic nominee steps down for some reason, and you're there: a county supervisor whose dad served in the legislature before you. It's such a good thing that even leading Republicans in Carroll endorse you and you win by a whopping 1900 votes.
This is how Dan Muhlbauer arrived in the legislature. He's carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few high profile votes. He voted with the GOP on marriage equality and nuclear power votes, and was the only Democrat to support Kim Pearson's total abortion ban bill that even most Republicans opposed.
Daniel Muhlbauer for State Representative has $10,265 of mostly PAC money in the bank. His opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, joined the race right at the filing deadline. Carroll County ambulance director and tea partier Bill Fish discussed running but didn't follow through.
The line changes turn a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County. The changes turn a 195 Republican Registration edge into an equally slim Democratic edge.
Original post 5/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Monday, May 02, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 6, House District 11 and 12
District of the Day: Senate District 6, House District 11 and 12
Senate District 6
Registration: D 11,206, R 13,393, N 16,263, total 40,887, R+ 2187
Incumbent: Steve Kettering, R-Lake View
Kettering got screwed last redistricting, yet ended up getting a promotion. He was in the House, got paired up with Rod Roberts, and drew the short straw, not running in 2002. But serendipitously for him, mid-term state senator Steve King emerged as the congressional nominee in that year's epic four-way primary and convention battle. Kettering won the January 2003 special for King's seat and barely missed a day of session. Elections have been uneventful since.
Redistricting is much kinder to Kettering this time, as he may have the least-changed rural district in the state. Kettering keeps almost all his old territory. Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties stay intact and stay in the district, and he also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. He adds tiny Audubon County and keeps a pretty similar solid GOP registration edge.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4650, R 7332, N 7700, total 19,690, R+ 2682
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan was another special election winner, but the most interesting part of that was the reason. Mary Lou Freeman, who was running for re-election unopposed, died after the withdrawal deadline. (Technically she was not re-elected posthumously; the contest was simply not counted.) Worthan won the special, just a month after the 2006 general election. He won with 66% in 2008 and 74% last year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less.
House District 12
Registration: D 6556, R 6061, N 8563, total 21197, D+ 495
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
One of the very few bright spots for Democrats in 2010. Rod Roberts gave up the Carroll-based seat to run for governor, and Republicans nominated their own Sharron Angle, Daniel Dirkx (dubbed "the worst candidate ever" by desmoinesdem). This was too much even for the tea party mood of the cycle. Leading Republicans in Carroll endorsed the late starting Democrat, Dan Muhlbauer (the original nominee dropped out), who won a solid 1900 vote win for the only Democratic gain of the cycle. Muhlbauer, a former county supervisor whose father preceded him in the legislature, has carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few hign profile votes like nuclear power and marriage equality.
The line changes turn a 195 Republican registration edge into a 495 voter advantage to the Democrats. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Senate District 6Registration: D 11,206, R 13,393, N 16,263, total 40,887, R+ 2187
Incumbent: Steve Kettering, R-Lake View
Kettering got screwed last redistricting, yet ended up getting a promotion. He was in the House, got paired up with Rod Roberts, and drew the short straw, not running in 2002. But serendipitously for him, mid-term state senator Steve King emerged as the congressional nominee in that year's epic four-way primary and convention battle. Kettering won the January 2003 special for King's seat and barely missed a day of session. Elections have been uneventful since.
Redistricting is much kinder to Kettering this time, as he may have the least-changed rural district in the state. Kettering keeps almost all his old territory. Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties stay intact and stay in the district, and he also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. He adds tiny Audubon County and keeps a pretty similar solid GOP registration edge.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4650, R 7332, N 7700, total 19,690, R+ 2682
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan was another special election winner, but the most interesting part of that was the reason. Mary Lou Freeman, who was running for re-election unopposed, died after the withdrawal deadline. (Technically she was not re-elected posthumously; the contest was simply not counted.) Worthan won the special, just a month after the 2006 general election. He won with 66% in 2008 and 74% last year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less.
House District 12
Registration: D 6556, R 6061, N 8563, total 21197, D+ 495
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
One of the very few bright spots for Democrats in 2010. Rod Roberts gave up the Carroll-based seat to run for governor, and Republicans nominated their own Sharron Angle, Daniel Dirkx (dubbed "the worst candidate ever" by desmoinesdem). This was too much even for the tea party mood of the cycle. Leading Republicans in Carroll endorsed the late starting Democrat, Dan Muhlbauer (the original nominee dropped out), who won a solid 1900 vote win for the only Democratic gain of the cycle. Muhlbauer, a former county supervisor whose father preceded him in the legislature, has carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few hign profile votes like nuclear power and marriage equality.
The line changes turn a 195 Republican registration edge into a 495 voter advantage to the Democrats. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
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