Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Podesta Cautiously Confident in Iowa City Stop

"The stories of the people who are going to benefit from her policies are what will make or break this campaign," Hillary Clinton campaign chair John Podesta told a mid-day crowd at Hillary's downtown Iowa City HQ.

The Clinton camp had been cautiously confident after what Podesta called, to applause and laughs, "a pretty good couple of weeks" that included the first debate, Iowa's Jefferson Jackson dinner, Vice President Joe Biden's final decision not to join the race, and Clinton's epic 11 hours of testimony before the House Benghazi committee.

"They've embarrassed themselves enough,"  Podesta said of House Republicans, "and wasn't she magnificent?"

House majority leader Kevin McCarthy "did us a little favor in admitting what this committee was all about, and he was telling the truth," said Podesta of McCarthy's comments that the Benghazi hearings had driven down Clinton's poll numbers. The comments are widely seen as having derailed McCarthy's bid for Speaker of the House.

Two polls today showed Clinton widening her Iowa lead over main rival Bernie Sanders, almost beyond the point of plausibility.  (The call universes were based on recent primary and general elections, so the accuracy depends on how accurately they screened for likely caucus attendance.)

But after her 2008 loss, it's almost a mantra in Clinton World not to take anything for granted. Podesta argued that Clinton leads in organization in Iowa and is "competitive" in New Hampshire, where Sanders has led in most polls.

Podesta said the terrain is better for Clinton in the next two states, South Carolina and Nevada, and in the largely southern Super Tuesday states that vote March 1. He said he hopes the nomination will be clear, if not mathematically clinched, soon thereafter.

"The sooner we can join the battle with the Republicans, the better off we are." he said.

Podesta took a page from the Sanders playbook by emphasizing Clinton's small dollar donations, saying she has over 300,000 donors who have given less than $50. Small donors are a big talking point for Sanders as he emphasizes campaign finance; he claims a million donors under $20.

While most of the focus was on his own candidate, Podesta did note that Sanders had made a "(pause) course correction" and been more negative in his remarks at the Jefferson Jackson dinner. Podesta also repeated Clinton's debate stance about being "A Progressive Who Gets Results," and stresses issue differences on gun control and on "realistic college costs plans." Clinton is arguing for interest free loans, while Sanders proposes free tuition.

Early Vote Seems Down

State/national readers: A Locals Only™ Post

It's hard to measure, because it's been a long time since we had a "normal" early voting cycle in Iowa City. But just anecdotally, with one week till the election, voting seems down. Despite a spike on Monday, there's been less than half the total requests that we saw in that last "normal" cycle, 2003.

Through 4 PM Monday, 570 voters (in all 11 cities) had requested ballots, mainly from Iowa City and mainly at the auditor's office. 515 ballots have been returned; no campaign has made a big vote by mail effort so it's just the usual self-starters.

There's no way we'll match the 6251 absentees counted in 2013, but that's not a fair benchmark, with that cycle's giant campus satellite sites petitioned by the failed effort to repeal 21 Bar, and the hot, Koch Brothers fueled race in Coralville.

But even other recent years are tough to compare. Here's a look at where things stood eight days out in other recent city elections, and some caveats. Again, these are for all cities, but all years are Iowa City dominated.
  • 2011. 2095 requested, 849 returned. And 753 of them were never returned. If they had been, Raj Patel would be up for re-election; Michelle Payne's win was by less votes than Patel's unreturned mailed ballots. Payne's win was also with fewer votes than Rockne Cole got losing in 2013.
  • 2009: 527 "requested," 222 returned. That was pretty much The Year Without An Election, as it was obvious on filing deadline day that townies Terry Dickens and Susan Mims would crush two students.
I qualify "requested" because a lot of those were overseas ballots. The way the law was interpreted then, overseas requests were good for four years. So a lot of ballots went to people who requested ballots for the presidential and had no idea about a city election. The law has changed and overseas requests are now only good for a calendar year.
  • 2007, just for fun: 5934 requests, 3993 returned. That was round one of 21 Bar, when Rick Dobyns tried to raise the age to 21 and got beat.
  • 2005: 1836 requested, mostly from a vote by mail drive pushed by Mid-American Energy, who ran a $600,000 campaign to crush the public power initiative. (That was also the year Dobyns lost his first council race, meaning Dobyns has a lifetime 1 W 2 L record.)

So that takes us back to the last more or less "normal" cycle, 2003. At this point we had 1190 ballots requested, double the current count, but only 341 returned. In part, that's because more people were voting by mail a dozen years ago. Also, there was a city primary that year, so in person early voting started later. (We were voting at the office this year the day BEFORE what would have been primary day.)

But clearly, there was much more interest in voting, as measured by people taking a step toward voting.
All other things being equal, lower turnout, especially lower EARLY turnout, would indicate an advantage for the un-named slate of Payne, Dobyns, Scott McDonough and Tim Conroy. Despite Mayor Matt Hayek's attack on "slates," there have been an awful lot of four candidate endorsements from long lists of the usual suspects.

The Core 4 candidates - Jim Throgmorton, Rockne Cole, John Thomas and Pauline Taylor - also have a lot of four candidate endorsements, though I don't believe Taylor Swift has actually endorsed. (If Katy Perry can...) But they also attract the kind of voters who are less sure when the election is or where to go, which means they have to work harder at it.
Also making things more interesting at the last minute: a write in campaign in University Heights, marking Round Five of The Battle Of Saint Andrews.

So there's early voting 7:45 to 5:30 all week and again Monday November 2 at the auditor's office. Next Tuesday, gotta go to the polling place. There's also satellites at UIHC on Thursday and Friday (10-4). Thursday (10-6), Friday (10-4) and Sunday (noon-5) at the Iowa City library. No voting Saturday. We heard something about an undefeated Top Ten football team playing at home.

Monday, October 26, 2015

UI Lecture Committee Craps On Caucus Night

Spectaculary bad scheduling:
The University Lecture Committee is pleased to announce its spring 2016 lineup:
The Eighth Annual Cassandra S. Foens, M.D. Lecture: Laverne Cox on February 1 at 5:00 PM in the IMU Main Lounge. In partnership with the University of Iowa Outreach & Engagement's "Just Living" Theme Semester.
An outspoken transgender advocate, Cox is the first trans-woman to produce and star in her own television show, "TRANSForm Me", appear on the cover of TIME Magazine [June 9, 2014] and be nominated for an EMMY. She is also the first trans-woman of color to have a leading role on a mainstream scripted television show, Orange is the New Black...
Great speaker. Not a great decision.

Can you think of anything else happening the evening of February 1? Think just a moment.

I'll wait.

Anywhere you might have heard that date.

Any place you might need to be at 7:00 that one night and one night only, February 1, 2016?


Obviously the lecture committee has overlooked something. Spell it out for them, Vanna:



I'm sure Laverne Cox has a lot to offer, and the lecture is a great opportunity.

But it's going to deprive UI students of another great opportunity, because there's not going to be enough time to leave the lecture site at the IMU and get checked in at your caucus site. Realistically, people are going to have to choose one or the other.  Which either defeats the purpose of brining in a name speaker, or disenfranchises people on the first student-friendly caucus date since 2004.

Buy an A, Lecture Committee, and reschedule this.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

JJ Post Mortem

Since the 1984 Reagan landslide, Iowa Democrats have only lost the presidential race once.

That was in 2004, after a particularly nasty caucus cycle. Young idealists (and a few old ones like me)  inspired by Howard Dean were loath to settle for a Kerry-Edwards ticket, and in some places the Kerry folks were less than gracious in victory.

It took a few months to patch things up, months the Democrats never got back.

Last night at the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson Jackson Dinner, some of that familiar tension was in the air between Team Bernie and Team Hillary.

Barring an increasingly unlikely breakout by Martin O'Malley, we now have a two way, zero sum race. Clinton's gains are Sanders' losses and vice versa. That usually forces contests onto the low road, a path that the Sanders supporters, drawn to an alternative politics, will find distasteful.

And now that the Endless Biden Speculation is over, the national press will be be playing up Sanders' chances. It's in their interest to make things interesting for as long as possible,

But in doing so, they'll elevate hopes and postpone the inevitable letdown later and later, closer and closer to election day.

The image that sticks with me from last night is of Sanders supporters leaving after his speech, through O'Malley's and into Clinton's.

Sanders leaders are aware it was a bad optic, especially since Press Row was a peninsula surrounded on three sides by Team Bernie while the Clinton sections were on the other side.  They're trying to get word out that the early departure was forced by transportation, as the crowd was largely students who bused over. (A problem solved by paying the bus drivers whatever overtime was needed.) And fingers are pointed at the security check in, which pushed the start time back an hour.

But walking out on the other speakers is very telling, especially when your candidate has yet to actually say he is a Democrat.

If I seem more critical of Sanders here, and I am still neutral, it's because I still see him having a more difficult path to the nomination. Despite his early state success, The Bern is still almost exclusively a white creative class phenomenon, and without a dramatic new development he seems pre-destined to flounder on the South Carolina beach and dry up in the Nevada desert.

Sanders supporters believe they will win. The rookies can't even conceive of not winning. Neither could us Deaniacs.

Yet it is still very, very likely that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. So: will the people drawn by the Sanders rhetoric (even "it's all about the issues" is a rhetoric) walk out on the fall campaign they way they walked out on Hillary Saturday?

And, in the unlikely but now conceivable event that Sanders is the nominee, will they identify with the Democratic Party, or just with The Political Revolution? Will they vote that ballot down to that moderate state Senator in a must-hold race?

In many ways, Sanders more zealous supporters - not all; I know lots of party loyalists who are for Sanders - are capable of being their own worst enemies, projecting a cult of personality around the candidate who is about issues not personality. In the classic The True Believer, Eric Hoffer argues that the ideological spectrum curves around so that zealots on opposite ends come to resemble each other in behavior and attitude. And Sanders World, bragging about winning online polls, feels a lot like Ron Paul World late 2011.

(STILL the under-reported story of the election: the way Bernie Sanders snuffed out Rand Paul.)

The funny thing is, all three candidates are singing from the same songbook, much as "arch rivals" Kary Perry and Taylor Swift are both singing hooks written by hit factory songwriter Max Martin. The actual policy differences between Clinton, Sanders and O'Malley are trivial, compared to the vast gulfs within  the wings of the Republican Party - a fact Bill Clinton emphasized in Team Hillary's pre-rally.

But it's about the style, with Hillary as Top 40 and Sanders as some indie band you probably haven't heard of. Oligarchy And The Billionaire Class are the punk rock version of The Deck Is Stacked For Those At The Top.

The Iowa Sanders folks tweeted out a graphic of their march to the arena, with a caption bragging that they didn't need a pop star. But bashing people for Selling Out is the kind of thinking that killed Cobain. And an A-list star like Katy Perry comes to freakin' Des Moines and gives a free concert? Admit it: that's FUN.
So what if she's not singing about the class struggle like Joe Strummer? So what if it's empty calories scientifically engineered in a lab in Sweden to make your ears salivate when that hook from "Roar" hits? 77 million followers - 12 million more than Obama. Decry the culture of fame all you want; it's our cultural and political reality.  And when a reality TV star and a Christian media subculture celebrity are leading the Republican field, Dems need all the star power we can get.


The flip side, of course, is Team Hillary needs to be planning ahead. Sure, Bernie's folks will eventually need to get on board. But Clinton needs to get them on board, which is a tricky task.

The John Kerry campaign never really seemed to make an effort to get the Deaniacs on board; it was just assumed we would go along to Beat Bush. And while we pretty much all VOTED for Kerry - the Nader vote dwindled to a tenth of its 2000 share - a lot of folks did nothing BUT vote. And Clinton may have work to do to get even that.

She's carefully not attacking, which may not be helping but at least isn't deepening the wound. Positions on issues aren't doing it, because Sanders just keeps saying he was right on DOMA or the Iraq War or whatever FIRST. For now, she's carefully aiming at the left of the general electorate, embracing the median of the Obama era Democratic Party where it's understood that the white male South is gone forever.

Over my 25ish years in politics, I've seen literally dozens of campaigns, local and national, center their strategy around getting non-voters to vote. Only two have ever succeeded: Barack Obama, and the first 19 Bar campaign here in Iowa City in 2007 that got students out for a city election. (The second effort, in 2010, also successfully implemented the strategy, but fell just short.)

Sanders is trying that strategy, and while I wish him well,  in the new zero-sum dynamic of the Democratic race, he also need to convince some of the kinds of folks who care about control of the state Senate, folks who are largely in the Clinton camp now, that he can be a team player. Because having a Democratic president didn't do jack for the teachers and public employees of Wisconsin.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Pre-Jefferson Jackson Ratings

Iowa Democrats are prepping for their last ever Jefferson-Jackson dinner tomorrow night; the name's being changed next year. The event comes at the end of an eventful two weeks in the Democratic race. Here's some short notes on how the key events affect the players.

The Biden Dropout

BIG win for Hillary. Joe was the only one with the gravitas to make a credible mainstream challenge, and his support was going to come almost entirely out of hers. It also means a pre-Iowa Obama endorsement is a possibility.

Some loss to Sanders. Biden eating 10-15% of the total vote, mainly out of Hillary, would have lowered the first place percentage closer to Sanders' ceiling of support - which I keep predicting is close to his current 40%ish.

Win for me as I correctly predicted it. However, I also predicted Sanders would NOT run and that Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination. In an alternate universe where Sanders didn't run, Martin O'Malley is playing Bill Bradley to Hillary's AL Gore. Instead, we're playing out Carter-Kennedy, with O'Malley as Jerry Brown.

Benghazi Hearing

EVEN BIGGER win for Hillary. Presidential style, presidential stamina, and Republicans couldn't even come up with a way to spin it.

No difference for Sanders. His support is hinged on different factors.

Loss for O'Malley, whose whole strategy depends on being the only mainstreamer surviving after a Hillary collapse, which seems less likely every day. Bernie has given her a pass on email, and now Benghazi is off the table too.

Webb-Chafee dropouts

A win for O'Malley. Not because their asterisk percent support gets added to his. Because he gains a big chunk of their debate time. It's a lot easier for debate moderators to squeeze out a three man second tier than it is to squeeze out one person. He still won't get EQUAL time to Bernie and Hillary, but he gains 10 or 15 minutes. Now he needs to DO something with it, which he didn't in last week's debate.

A one millimeter gain for Hillary - only because Chafee was the only one who might have attacked her, and as we saw from the Vegas debate, he was easy to dismiss in a single syllable.

As for Chafee, he avoids one last humiliation at JJ: With the speakers in anti-alphabetical order, he would have been last, after Hillary, and would likely have been inaudible from the mass exodus.

A loss for Republicans, as the Democratic also-rans show some realism while the Republican One Percenters cling to delusion.


JJ Weekend Live Entertainment

Mainstream vs. Alternative, kind of like the campaigns. 

Unlike most musicians played at Republican rallies (they struggle for any acts newer than Ted Nugent) Katy Perry is an actual Clinton supporter AND at peak popularity. Super Bowl halftime is as A-list as it gets.

Sanders is bringing an alt-hipster list headlined by Marshall Crenshaw, who was alt-hipster 35 years ago. The Sanders Hipster Factor needs more attention. He's on an independent label from Vermont. You've probably never heard of him.

As for Martin O'Malley...




(Taylor Swift™ No copyright infringement intended. Property of TAS LLC Management 2014©)

Monday, October 19, 2015

Yard Sign Theft? Shake It Off

More proof that yard sign vandalism is rarely if never a sign of a political enemy conspiracy...
An Iowa City Police officer says he saw 18-year-old Quinn Conroy walking along South Dodge Street about 1 a.m. Friday carrying several “Conroy for City Council” campaign signs. The officer says he knew Conroy was not the council candidate and noticed his unsteady gait.

Conroy told the officer he had taken the signs from various yards because “they have the same last name as him.” He showed multiple signs of intoxication and registered a .156 BAC. He was also found to have a fake Maryland driver’s license with the birth date changed to 1994.
...and more often a sign of drunken stupidity. At least an 18 year old young adult got arrested for drinking, which should make Matt Hayek and Rick Dobyns happy.

I like to think my yard looks nicer than the mayor's.

I certainly hope no one named Taylor, Cole, Jim or John Thomas gets drunk. (And that's Pauline Taylor, not Taylor Swift.)

Yo Dobyns I'm happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Pauline Taylor has one of the greatest campaigns of ALL TIME.

(Taylor Swift™ No copyright infringement intended. Property of TAS LLC Management 2014©)

Yeah, If it weren't for that copyright thing, and campaign finance law, I'd print a bunch of these up...

Better advice: if you live on a bar crawl or game day route like I do, it's a good idea to bring those signs in on a Saturday night. The home football game, three days before the election, on Halloween yet, likely to do serious damage to Iowa City yard signs.

So when you hear the paranoid wailing on November 1, remember that the simplest explanation is the most likely, and that haters gonna hate hate hate hate hate.

(Taylor Swift™ No copyright infringement intended. Property of TAS LLC Management 2014©)

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Sanders, Granholm keynote Johnson County BBQ

The speaking schedule made the Johnson County Democrat's annual barbecue feel almost like two different events today.

The one presidential candidate to attend, Bernie Sanders, was the first speech on the program. He had been gone nearly 90 minutes before the Clinton campaign's surrogate, former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm, whose flight had been delayed, took the stage.

The Sanders crowd arrived early and many left early. Crowd estimates were a challenge as the event was held in two separate buildings at the Johnson County Fairgrounds - one for speaking and one for eating and visiting. The speech crowd peaked at about 300 during the Sanders speech. Granholm spoke to maybe half as many.

The big news from Team Bernie was local. Supervisor Mike Carberry endorsed Sanders in his introduction, joining board colleague Rod Sullivan as a commit for Sanders.

Sanders broke no new ground today, giving the Basic Bernie Speech. (This is about my fifth time seeing Sanders this cycle.)  It was a four drink speech, with three Political Revolutions and one Billionaire Class but not a single YOOGE or YOOMAN.

No references to last night's SNL debate (earlier in the day Sanders had said Larry David "does a better me than me" and later he noted he in fact owns multiple sets of underwear) but Sanders did joke a little about his dancing on Ellen.

But that was as light as it got, other than joking about how serious he was: At one point discussing Social Security, Sanders said, "I'm gonna bore you with some statistics." An audience member shouted: "Go ahead."

Granholm's speech could not have been more different. She launched into a high-energy script delivered in Dr. Seuss derived verse that touched variously on issues and political events that I thought was an introduction - but turned out to be the full speech. References to a female president got the most applause from a crowd that by that point in the program leaned as heavily Hillary as the early crowd leaned Bernie.
Like that. It was a wittily written speech, but it passed over the fight about the 2008 primary calendar.
Dave Loebsack introduced Granholm, or more accurately his own speech segued into his Granholm intro. Of the current sede vacante Speaker of the House battle, Loebsack said the 45 to 50 member House Freedom Caucus, including Iowans Steve King and Rod Blum, is holding both Congress and the country hostage. "It's not Congress in chaos. It's Republicans in chaos."

Loebsack, sporting a Hillary sticker, gave shout outs to congressional candidates Monica Vernon (1st CD) and Jim Mowrer (3rd CD), both of whom he has endorsed in contested primaries, and to King challenger Kim Weaver.

Bob Dvorsky spoke on behalf of the legislative delegation and stressed the importance of holding the state Senate, saying Terry Branstad would turn Iowa into Wisconsin "in about 20 minutes" if Republicans controlled both the House and Senate. All three Johnson County senators (Dvorsky, Joe Bolkcom and Kevin Kinney) are mid-term this cycle, so Dvorsky stressed helping in neighboring districts, specifically for Chris Brase in Muscatine. (This has been and will be a recurring theme.)
Not a lot of commit cards signed, but a lot of love on the ground for the O'Malley staff, especially Sean McEnerny, who managed Kinney's critical win last year for the 26th Senate seat.

The three US Senate candidates - Hogg, Tom Feigen and Bob Krause - were all on hand, and Hogg and Fiegen at least stayed late (not sure about Bob; like I said, two buildings.)

Also working the room: Iowa City council candidates Jim Throgmorton, Rockne Cole and Pauline Taylor:

I was my usual low key self:

Actually, I was more likely checking the score of a nail-biter Packers-Chargers game.

There was a supermajority of local electeds on hand; Sue Dvorsky and I had a friendly competition going for seeing who could spot who first for the list to deliver to chair Martha Hedburg for introductions. Another guest merits a mention: Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson, who switched parties and joined the Democrats last month.
And of course we had the silent auction, to which I donated some memorabilia:
A bidding war ensued on this item between Patrick Rynard of Iowa Starting Line and a local activist named Mel (Stahmer). Stahmer was the winner at $45.

Nathan Rifkin of Team Bernie wins the beret for a BARGAIN.

And the MOST important news of the day was after I got home:

With a sign of relief from both me and Bob Dvorsky. (More observations on the Twitter feed.)

JCDems BBQ Pre-post

It'll be an afternoon tweetstorm today from the Johnson County Democrats' annual barbecue. Doors open at 3 with Bernie Sanders scheduled to speak at 3:30.

Past caucus year BBQs have been mini cattle calls. Five candidates - Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Dodd and Kucinich - attended in 2007.  In 2003 Edwards and Dean showed up, but John Kerry overshadowed them by bringing Ted Kennedy with him.

But this year only Sanders is on hand. Martin O'Malley is in New Hampshire today; Hillary Clinton has no public schedule. The Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee "campaigns" are impossible to contact.

UPDATE: Chafee must have seen his own face on the milk carton because we found him:
No time today but I should do the math on who produces a bigger Democratic margin: Johnson County or the 23 counties combined that hosted the Wing Ding in August. .This year's Wing Ding‬ got four candidates (all but Webb).

However, the Johnson County Dems suffer from a scheduling conflict: we locked in the date and venue months ago, then got stepped on by the state party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner next weekend, which all five candidates are attending. Back to back cattle call weekends just weren't going to happen.

The Clinton campaign is sending former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm; Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is campaigning today elsewhere in eastern Iowa. Our own Dave Loebsack will also be on hand to speak. Not speaking but attending are the US Senate candidates, presumptive nominee Rob Hogg and Some Dudes Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen.

For me the highlight is our silent auction. This year I am once again donating an official, event-worn Deeth Blog beret, with proceeds to the JCDems. The last berets I auctioned off (for the Crisis Center) sent for $210 each.

I've also donated an I'm STILL WITH MEL button from the 2000 Missouri Senate race. The Democratic candidate, Gov. Mel Carnahan, was killed in a plane crash two weeks before the election. Under state law he stayed on the ballot, and he won the election posthumously (widow Jean Carnahan was appointed). Patrick Rynard of Iowa Starting Line has put in an early bid of $20.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Hayek's Last Act

In 33 years as a registered voter - my first vote was for William Proxmire - I've cast a few ballots I regret.

Mostly by omission, passing over a candidate in a multi-winner race who turned out pretty good, in order to bullet vote only for my one favorite.

Then there was that write in for my cat in a race with no candidate, which came back to karmically bite my butt when I spent a whole Veteran's Day weekend tallying those write-ins.

But in all my years of voting there is no vote I more regret - and I specifically include Ralph Nader 2000 in this - no vote I more regret than Matt Hayek in 2007.

I didn't just vote for him, I actually HELPED him. He campaigned as a broad consensus builder, and the other choices that cycle were both weak and bad, so I signed up.

But soon after his record-setting win, he turned away from the progressive half of his coalition, and siding with the developers and landlords that have run this town since long before I arrived. 
 
And say what you will about the merits or demerits of Iowa City's 21 Bar ordinance. I've said enough and that's not the point here.

The point is, even if you agreed on the issue, the campaign Hayek led in 2010 was ugly and nativist. Hayek made 21 Bar a townie vs. student culture war, and defined the issue to townie crowds as "taking our city back."

No, it wasn't enough to argue the merits.  Hayek and the old guard had to put the students in their place. Because that's what the Iowa City landlord and real estate class does - not just to students, to the working class and poor population of this city as well.


I did NOT make the mistake of supporting Matt Hayek in 2011.

Hayek was once rumored to have higher ambitions. But his flimsy ties to the local Democratic Party long ago crumbled from neglect.

Sure, he's put in the occasional appearance when the President was in town, always getting a shout out from the stage based solely on his title while the local leaders who were actually WITH Obama (Matt was a DODD guy) in 2007, Bob Dvorsky and Rod Sullivan, sat unrecognized.  A petty gripe, I know, and not one I ever heard Bob or Rod make. But I heard a lot of OTHER people say it, people who would move and shake in any hypothetical Democratic primary Hayek would be interested in.

But as for actual substance, Hayek long ago chose the unnamed de facto party of traditional local Iowa City power, a party he was literally born into, over the Democratic Party. And in that unnamed party (ya gotta admit, Core Four is at least catchy), there's nowhere to go up from mayor.

So this city election, in which he is not seeking re-election, is likely to be Matt Hayek's last act in local politics. And he's chosen to go out with no class.

As he was in 2010, Hayek is the designated deliverer of the Scare The Townies message, a stink bomb dropped in Thursday morning's Press-Citizen, meaning it was aimed straight at aging natives because no one else still reads it in print.

The whole thing is worth a read because, whoever actually wrote it, it's a priceless insight into the mindset of the Iowa City old guard. Excerpts:

A group of city council candidates threatens this balance. They call themselves the “Core Four” and seek a majority on the council. 

That would be Jim Throgmorton, Rockne Cole, Pauline Taylor and John Thomas.

One of them is presently suing the city.  Another says our community is not “just” and wants to issue public debt to fund his pet causes. 

Keepin' it classy, Matt.

All of them are unabashedly running as a slate.

A SLATE!?! OH NOES! Not a SLATE!  Hayek then just happens, maybe on accident,  to endorse individually and separately and not at all in a slatey way... yup, all four of the other candidates in the race: Michelle Payne, Tim Conroy, Rick Dobyns and Scott McDonough.

If this slate wins, the next mayor will likely be Jim Throgmorton. 

You say that like it's a BAD thing, Matt.

We will return to the anti-growth, micromanaging city hall of eras past. We will lose the critical progress made by recent councils with the help of talented professional staff. 

Because Lord forbid that the elected officials actually decide stuff, rather than the staff.

Hayek's over the top editorial has been making the rounds on the progressive social media circuit, as unintentional comedy and as motivation.

As chance would have it, the Iowa City Federation of Labor met Wednesday night. The Core Four got a near-unanimous endorsement. Only "near" because Taylor, an SEIU delegate, abstained from endorsing herself. One delegate described Hayek's piece as "a necessary unmasking" of the council majority faction.

Before the endorsement vote, candidates discussed Hayek's editorial and other experiences they've had while campaigning.

"What bothered me the most " about Hayek's piece, Taylor said, "is  Jim is warm and compassionate about Iowa City, and it was total disrespect. We're seeing the other side get anxious."

Throgmorton said he had attended the Chamber of Commerce candidate forum, which only a small number of chamber members attended and which, unlike all other forums to date, was not recorded. Throgmorton said as soon as questioning began Dobyns, Taylor's opponent in the District A race, attacked Taylor saying she had "corrupted the narrative" by allying with Thomas, Cole and Throgmorton.

"They (the current council majority) firmly believe they are entitled to ALL of the seats," said Cole.  "We want to add new seats at the table."

"When we have thoughtful voices like Jim and we get attacked, it really shows where we are," Cole added.

"We will need you help AFTER we get into office," Throgmorton told union delegates, "because the same players are out there."

So maybe we've all cast votes we're ashamed of. I'm proud of the vote I cast last week for  Jim Throgmorton, Rockne Cole, Pauline Taylor and John Thomas.

And today, I'm prouder still.

Because I know my vote canceled out Matt Hayek's.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Sanders Gives Clinton A Strategic Debate Win

Careful what you wish for, Sanders people.

Bernie clearly had the moment of the night with the "the American people are sick of hearing about your damn emails line." And Sanders supporters loved it. He used it to pivot to talking about The Media and The Issues.

But Hillary Clinton was nodding and smiling and thanking through all of it. And with good reason.

Clinton had done just fine on her own with her own answer, painting it as partisanship and getting applause. One part of the strongest overall performance of the night. Bernie's answer was more dramatic... and very final.

Bernie Sanders has taken email off the table for the Democratic primary season. The other candidates can't raise it now without diminishing themselves.  The obsessed media will continue, of course, but now Clinton can easily deflect by saying "this is a partisan attack" (the answer she clearly always wanted to give) "and even my main opponent says we're sick of this."



Maybe.

In any case, Sanders and Clinton were relatively evenly matched much of the night, each playing to strength: Sanders spontaneous, Clinton measured.

But Hillary seemed more ready. Sanders came off as if trying to cram the whole Bernie Speech, at arena volume, into one answer, and it took him a couple rounds to settle in.

And unfortunately for Sanders, the first major exchange was on guns, the one issue where Clinton could get to his left which she did solidly. Martin O'Malley helped with the assist - and reminded us of it near the end naming the NRA as the enemy he was most proud of - and Sanders was left arguing that he had to be for gun rights in a rural state. Bernie Sanders, making a Red State argument.

In the end, Sanders satisfied his supporters and Clinton hers, and Clinton gets a big strategic win. There was no obvious weakness, and email is now off limits, so the slim chance that Joe Biden gets in has faded even more.

Martin O'Malley was clearly the winner of the second tier. He tried to play the Reasonable Role and navigate the narrow straits between Hillary and Bernie. O'Malley offered solid answers, well within the mainstream of Democratic primary voters. But, and this may be a critique of the process, he didn't generate a breakout moment. His best moment, the firm "The. National. Rifle. Association." response to the enemies question, was too late and too context dependent.

And the most, um, memorable answer to that question came from Jim Webb bragging about That Charlie I Killed In Nam,and looking almost eager to go back and do it again. Up to that point, the most notable point about Webb was his role as the Timekeeping Nag. At one point Hillary reaised her hand as Webb was speaking, then realized the absurdity, laughed, and lowered it.

Lincoln Chafee got the least time, but more time would only have meant more damage. Before tonight he was an obscurity; now he's a laughing stock. His admission that, as a brand new appointed senator replacing his late father, he simply wasn't ready to cast an informed vote may have been the most honest answer of the night, but it's one of the most devastating gaffes in debate history.

Chafee had fumbled long before that; Hillary easily batted away his attack on the Iraq vote, he got time to repeat it, and when she was offered response time she simple said "No." (Almost as good as Joe Biden's identical response about his verbosity.) I'd like to have his nine or so minutes back and split it between Webb and O'Malley.

(And that's part of what was good about this debate: half as many candidates = twice as much time per.)

As for moderation, Anderson Cooper spent the first hour of the debate working variations of "Bernie, are you a Red red or just a pinko Com Symp?" and "Hillary, are you a crook or just a liar?" And Dana Bash tried to instigate a Hillary Clinton-Carly Fiorina cat fight, but Hillary wouldn't take the bait.

Another week's notes

Harry Reid, delete your account:

Only reason Nevada even IS an early state is because guys from New Mexico and Arizona were both running in 2008.

Yes, we are still first, though the Johnson County Democrats BBQ this Saturday is not the cattle call that it's been in recent years. In 2007 it was a five candidate event. In 2003 we had three candidates, and one of them, John Kerry, brought along his pal Ted Kennedy.

But this year, it looks like Bernie Sanders is the lone candidate. Team Hillary is sending ex-Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm - who is reportedly quite dynamic, but still not a candidate. The candidate is scheduled to speak to African American group the Alabama Democratic Conference Saturday.

Martin O'Malley staff confirmed yesterday that he will be in New Hampshire this weekend; a surrogate is yet to be announced. And it's next to impossible to find an Iowa contact for teams Webb or Chaffee.

In any case, doors open at 3, Sanders is scheduled at 3:30, and schmoozing with the locals is always fun. Plus there's a silent auction, and a genuine interview-worn beret is on the block.

Part of the problem for local Dems is that after scheduling their event around football and County Fairgrounds availability, they got stepped on by the state party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner. (The last one ever, as the name is being changed next year.) All five candidates will be at that, and Iowa cattle calls back to back weekends just weren't going to happen.

Hillary is binging Katy Perry (definitely more A-list than Granholm) in for a pre-rally, but whoever brings Perry the Platypus gets my endorsement. Rick Perry of course is out and Joe Perry is probably just as mad as Steven Tyler about Trump using Aerosmith as rally music.

The Republicans are also stopping by the People's Republic. Rand Paul was in town last night - I'm still trying to sell the media on my theory that Sanders is what's killed the Paul campaign. And Jindal, Santorum and Huckabee are in town for a pro-Israel event tonight.


That, of course, conflicts with the Democratic debate, and since we've waited long enough I'm going to be watching that.  Expectation: Bernie and Hillary will almost seem to be in different debates and will bend over backwards to avoid attacking or even acknowledging each other.  So who makes the Hillary attack? Chaffee, who is only running so that he can be in debates and specifically make an Iraq war attack.

Dennis Hastert is contemplating a plea deal officially over banking fraud but unofficially over molesting his students decades ago. His punishment may be having to become Speaker of the House again. One key difference between American legislative politics and a  parliamentary system: We just had the the Vote Of No Confidence, but we don't get the new election to follow.

The Gazette just did its city election endorsement which I half agree with. Their praise for some of the candidates they didn't endorse was interesting, but more interesting was their lack of mention for one incumbent. Shorter version: Anyone But Michelle Payne. Factoid: Rockne Cole got more votes losing in 2013 than Payne or Rick Dobyns got winning in 2011.

And my own endorsement: Cheap Trick has been nominated for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, giving me an excuse to re-up this. All right Tokyo!

Monday, October 05, 2015

Think Small

Art Small passed away over the weekend and I don't really want to minimize his death in a catch-all post, but Jeff Charis-Carlson already covered the basics.

Small's last hurrah was as Chuck Grassley's 2004 challenger. Art did the party a favor by stepping up when literally no one else was willing, and he didn't get the credit he deserved at the time for that stand-up act of citizenship.

Art's slogan that year was "Think Big, Vote Small," perhaps inspired by the legendary Volkswagen ads of the Mad Men age?

Small would have been a formidable Grassley challenger three cycles earlier, in 1986. That was the year Art left the legislature in an attempt to run for lieutenant governor - which was, at the time, an independently elected office with significant responsibility. Art fell short in the primary.

Between Small's passing and the death last week of Joe Johnston, it's really feeling like the end of an era...
I've dropped off the radar in the past week, falling behind enough on the news that even Yet Another Mass Shooting failed to get me writing. It's hard to write the same post over and over and over...

Caucus chair recruiting has moved from the low hanging fruit, mass email stage to the gentle arm twisting stage. 46 chairs lined up, 11 to go...
The yard on the left, spatially and ideologically, is mine. Early voting for the November 3 election started today and we saw a dozen Iowa City voters (including myself)  and one small towner at the office. Stop by and say hi to me, Travis Weipert and the crew.

Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren is announcing his candidacy against Dave Loebsack tomorrow, with a Free Beer! event in Iowa City. I have a feeling that in a presidential year, a race between an incumbent who's stronger than people think and an often abrasive state legislator is going to look an awful lot like Dave Hartsuch vs. Bruce Braley in 2008. By the end of that one, they weren't even inviting Hartsuch on stage when John McCain visited his home county...

It's funny; Republicans like to dismiss Loebsack as a fluke, but no one gets to term FIVE as a fluke. Meanwhile, Chelgren won his first term in the worst Democratic year in two decades by blindsiding an unsuspecting incumbent. by a whopping TEN votes. Then in 2014, his Democratic challenger made the most boneheaded unforced error of 2014*; instead of merely recycling Chelgren's "survey" mailer, he filled it out with smart ass answers and sent it back.  Would have cost us the state Senate if it weren't for Kevin Kinney.

* Only because Brandon Bostick in the NFC championship was technically calendar year 2015.
If Amy Poehler had shown up, Darrell Hammond's head would have exploded from critical Hillary mass. Val The Bartender - we hope this is a recurring character - pulls off the second best presidential candidate intro of SNL musical guest ever.  (No one will ever top Steve Forbes having to say "Ladies and gentlemen, Rage Against The Machine.") And at some point we need to see if Kyle Mooney can do a decent Bernie Sanders.
Speaking of Bernie. I met with some international visitors today through UIowa's CIVIC program, something I do periodically and always enjoy. We have a local blogger panel of myself, libertarian Joseph Dobrian, and Nicholas Johnson who's one of the more prominent local Sanders supporters.  They both liked my theory of the overlap between Sanders and Paul support.

My national readers don't get that theory. Only people who really know Iowa City seem to get that theory. If you had wanted to be at ground zero of the Sanders/Paul singularity, you would have gone to the Edward Snowden tele-lecture at the Englert last week.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Granholm to Johnson County BBQ Oct. 18

Former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm will be the guest speaker for the Hillary Clinton campaign at the Johnson County Democrats' annual barbecue on October 18, joining Bernie Sanders on the speaker list.

The Clinton campaign informed local Democrats Thursday that the candidate would not be attending, and that they would send "a high level surrogate (not a family member)."

Granholm was governor from 2002 to 2010, when she was term limited. Since leaving office, Granholm has hosted a cable show, served on faculty at the University of California-Berkeley law and public policy schools, and is co-chairing the Priorities USA super PAC.

Granholm was an early Clinton backer and frequent cable TV guest in 2007-08.  Once the nomination was settled, she took on the job of playing Sarah Palin in Joe Biden's debate prep. (No word on whether her impersonation rivalled Tina Fey's.) She also served on the Obama transition team.

As governor, Granholm signed the state law that moved Michigan's 2008 primary to January 15, in violation of the rules of both parties. The Michigan move pushed Iowa's 2008 caucuses to January 3.

Granholm was not the main force behind Michigan's 2008 move - that can be blamed on then Senator Carl Levin and then DNC member (now Rep.) Debbie Dingell. And she avoided the aggressive rhetoric of Dingell and Levin, who explicitly said the move was aimed at replacing Iowa and New Hampshire as first in the nation.

But in signing the bill, Granholm noted Michigan's "richly diverse electorate," echoing the frequent criticism of Iowa and New Hampshire's lack of diversity. She also stuck up for her state in the months-long fight over the Michigan national convention delegation (which was eventually seated with no penalty).

Granholm has often been mentioned as a potential cabinet member - but not a presidential candidate or running mate; as she was born a Canadian citizen, she's ineligible. She took a pass at an open seat US Senate run in 2014 when Levin retired. Democrat Gary Peters held the seat, in one of the few Democratic wins last year.

Sanders is attending his second consecutive Johnson County Democrats' barbecue, and for the second consecutive year he's getting paired with a woman from Michigan; Senator Debbie Stabenow co-keynoted with Sanders in 2014.

Hillary Clinton was one of five candidates (with Dodd, Edwards, Kucinich and Richardson) to attend the 2007 barbecue, which set an attendance record of 2500. She brought George McGovern along with her, and the 1972 nominee made his Clinton endorsement official at the event.

Local Democrats don't have final word yet from the Chafee, Webb, or O'Malley campaigns - and yes, I did ask O'Malley again.

Monday, September 28, 2015

A Meal with O'Malley

Thursday afternoon the Martin O'Malley staff called up and made me an offer. They were going to be en route from Mt. Pleasant to Des Moines Saturday night, and wanted to know if I was free for dinner and an interview.

Well, I'm not going to say no to a one on one with a presidential candidate. So Saturday we met at the Midtown Family Diner - a nice locally owned spot that got the nod over the more famous Hamburg because of location, location, location: a brief detour from their route at a time when there was some risk of post-football traffic. (As the game was a 62-14 blowout, traffic traffic tricked out the whole second half.)

After some background - part of this was about him picking my brain, too - and some food I put on the Beret Of Official Journalism for a two cup of coffee interview.

Unlike some of the other candidates, you've got a lot of history with the caucuses, going back to the Gary Hart `84 campaign. What's changed between then and now in Caucus Land?

In 30 years lots of things have changed I suppose. Certainly the Internet has changed a lot of things. the way people get their news has certainly changed. But at the same time one thing that hasn't changed is the fact that individuals really matter and make a big difference. People that are respected in their communities matter. And that's what's exciting about this process is that in an era of big money it's still good to be some place that everybody gives you a fair shake.

And things like those local endorsements, being able to say, Joe Judge (note: the Judges had hosted an event earlier that day in Albia) is with me. That can make a difference here.
Yeah. All of that is huge. And it's also... I suppose what I find most refreshing and why I enjoy always being in in Iowa is that people have seen 1% candidates or 2% candidates that nobody else has heard of suddenly emerge.

I know people who still brag that Jimmy Carter slept on their couch.
Yeah. And the people of Iowa take pride, I think, in winnowing this process. And very often they are the ones that first identify that leader for a new generation and put that leader forward. And so I'm doing this campaign the old fashioned way, John, I am going county to county to county, the small groups of people that actually have respect in their community and know other people, and making my case for a better way forward for our country and what I have to offer at this time.

Maybe the caucuses have changes less for you - I mean, obviously you're not the staffer you're the candidate - but you seem to be running, of the Democrats at least, the most old-school kind of campaign, where you're going to the mid-size events and taking every question and shaking every hand you can, they can't get you out of the room... and you're not having a 15,000 body rally, and you don't have the Secret Service.

I remember in 1983 when I was working here for Gary Hart. John Glenn always had the big rallies. Tons of people would;d come to see John Glenn. Alan Cranston supposedly had sucked up all of the oxygen on the left. But I also saw my candidate continue to hang in there, go from county to county to county and offer ideas of substance, and some depth, and in the course of all of those talks on a chair, arrive at the needed message for those times and emerges as the alternative. And for all of the big crowds of John Glenn, he finished way down and Hart was able to finish on top of Cranston who was far better financed.

The great leveler, I think, and maybe the last sort of line of defense against big money running our process, is the process like this in Iowa, and to a very big degree your neighbors in New Hampshire who get to meet each of the candidates and who make a big difference.

Of course New Hampshire's got the different process with a primary, an open primary. There was a lot of criticism of caucus process in the 08 cycle. Obama did better in the caucus states than Hillary did. I just remember week after week after week Debbie Wasserman Schultz on MSNBC talking about how unfair caucuses were...
That was the Hillary Clinton talking point at the time.

Yeah. What do you think? Are caucuses - not the meeting and greeting process, the actual process of the night itself. The stand in the corner thing. Is that open enough?

I think it's very open. And I think it's very democratic. I think it's a good process. It tends to reward the better organized candidates, too. In 1983, I think after Iowa they sent me to Oklahoma, which was also... was Oklahoma a primary or a caucus?  I think Oklahoma was a caucus.  One of the few caucus states we won that year. So, I kind of like the caucus process. I think it's good for democracy. I mean, so much of what we do, we dial in. We drive through.

Are you excited for the debates finally coming up? I know you've talked about them a lot.

Yeah, I sure am. By this point 8 years ago, we had already had nine debates. And this year in the process we haven't had any. The Republicans have had two, very well, heavily viewed, publicized for weeks in advance with free media on CNN, letting everyone know who their candidates are. And we haven't. So our party needs to tell its story, not only of the progress of these last 8 years but who we are fighting for and the fight that we still need to continue here. So I'm looking forward to the debates, and I think we should have more of them rather than less. And hopefully more rational minds in the party will prevail.

Do you think it's possible now in the social media age for somebody to be flying under the radar and then make that great leap forward form a very distant second place to a big win in eight days, the way Hart did?

Yes. Although I was there at the time and it wasn't quite eight days. My experience was and what I hear back `cause I talk to our young people, our 30 organizers that are here in the state, is it's much the same process. Iowans, knowing how important their vote is, many people want to wait until they see the process unfold before they decide. Now fortunately, there are some people who want to be with you early, and those folks for the nucleus of your organization in any county or any district. But what I think the reason why it looks like somebody suddenly emerges is not because they suddenly emerge but because they were relentless in continuing to ask people , is there anything more I can send you on my candidacy? Is there anything more you and I can talk about. about the issues that matter to you, that my candidate might be able to address for you? And so as we roll out our policy statements and our policy positions, as people come to know my record and what I've actually accomplished in office, all of that comes together and gels in the end.

It's a remarkable process here when decision time is finally upon us, the debates have all happened, and it's time time for people to decide who they're going to be for, just to watch the networks light up and to see the relationships emerge. I felt after working for about two months in Scott County, after I got through that process. I felt like I had lived in Scott County for 10 years. I understood who knew who, who disliked who and why, and all of those things kind of gel in the end. And the candidate who gets rewarded in that process is the candidate who was relentless, who was all about ideas, and all about the national interest and governing.

Electability and experience is clearly part of your message, and yet we know... you're the turtle, the good Maryland Terrapin...

Fear the turtle!

Why do you think electability is not a bigger issue yet on the Democratic side? I got a theory, but I want to hear your theory.

Hmm. Why isn't electability a bigger issue in our party? Couple reasons. I think because it's early, and i Think in the early going people in both parties want to express their anger, frustration, discontent with the established leaders. People they feel that have let us down, gotten to cozy with powerful wealthy interest at the expense of our common good as a people. But I think the dynamic will shift, and as the debates start to happen I do believe that people will be looking at which of us can best win a general election. What do you think?

Well, my pet theory is that the Republican race looks like such a clown car right now that Democrats aren't worried about electability right now, because they feel like "are you kidding? We can beat any of these guys with anybody." My other theory is identity politics are playing a big part in all this. And in Johnson County at least, Move The Democrats Left is as much of an identity politics as Elect A Woman President is. So, with those dynamics going on, where do you fit in?

Identity politics. My son tried to explain this to me. I think the most important identity politics at the end of this process is which of us do people believe will fight the hardest for them and their family. I've always found that's the most important identity politics. In every race, there is a kind of a question that needs to be answered by voters about the two candidates - or the three, four, the five in our case. Which one of these people is on my side. Not only saying the right things, not only agreeing with my issues, but in the totality, which one is on my side? Which one had both the independence and the motivation and the emotional connection to fight for me and for my family? And I think that's the most important identity politics of all.

I know I'm an unknown right now, but that will all start to change once these debates start to happen, and the smaller number of people in our field will I think be a competitive advantage for me.

Just by division, you'll get more time than Scott Walker had to fight for in his last hurrah.

Yes, but what I will have to fight is a rather rigged process, where they try to hide the debates on Christmas weekend in New Hampshire, and in the middle of a big Iowa game here. That sort of manipulation and the limiting of debates, all of that will be a challenge. But I do believe that people throughout IA and NH, your serious voters and caucus goers, will be tuning in to those debates and will make sure that they see them. All of those very interested individuals are very aware there are going to be fewer debates. So I think you're going to see a higher viewership. So strangely enough, what they intended would be something that would suppress competition and circle the wagons around this years inevitable front runner I think will have the opposite effect on viewership. I think more people will want to view something that the party boss tries to hide from us.

I'm getting the feeling right now, between the rise of Trump, behind the very different movement Bernie Sanders is building, and now with John Boehner being squeezed out of office - I've got a sense of the wheels falling off the system (O'Malley laughs) more than I have since the Ross Perot era. Can the system be saved?

Yes. And that's what people are looking for. They're looking for the glue guy. They're looking for somebody that can pull it all together and invite all of us back to our table of democracy, remind us that we're good people and that our kids are depending on us to make our country stronger. And that's what people are looking for. Once we're done emoting, once we're done expressing our anger,. we're looking for an honest individual who can pull our country back together. Because the inequality, the injustice, the lack of confidence in the integrity of our own political process, all of these things are threatening to tear us apart. people are looking for a leader that can pull us back together.

Speaking of the process, you've talked about campaign finance reform, Hillary devoted a big speech to election process reform back in the spring. Other than campaign finance, what do you think the biggest improvements we could make to the actual electoral process, what do you think the biggest barriers are to participation, and what can we do about it?


During my term we tried to find ways to make it easier for people to vote. We extended early voting periods, did same day registration. There are some nations on this planet like Estonia that do on line voting. This is a country that is adjacent to Russia, and was once totally cut down by cyber attacks. So clearly they figured out, even as near as that threat is, how to secure online voting. And over the long arc of history, I think that's where it's moving towards. Despite the frustrations and some occasional detours, the march of our nation is towards fuller participation, with more and more people, and striving to make that easier with every generation.

I'd like to see us overturn Citizens United. I intend to talk in the course of this campaign about publicly financed congressional elections. I think the general public is on to the fact that we've turned our Congress members into telemarketers to special interests, and that;s not good for our representative democracy.

I've worked in elections for 18 years and I didn't see the same kind of gaming the rules, like the ID stuff, before Florida. So it seems like now it's acceptable in our political process to...


...make it harder for your opponents people to vote? Even if they're poor and sick and old?

Yeah. To try to rig the rules.

That's pretty outrageous, and we need to do a better job as a party of pushing back on it. What our party should be doing is running a wishbone offense to organize around two important principles: that corporations are not people, and the other one is to enshrine in the Constitution the right to vote. That's how a party could be helpful, rather than limiting debates or trying to figure out how to hide the Iowa debate on a Hawk eye game.

I hear a lot of good things about you. People like you. The one negative feedback I get is looking back to the 90s, to policing policies. Looking back, seeing how things have played out, what might you do different?

I wish we had been earlier implementers as  a state of body cameras. because as a city we were early implementers of the crime cameras on the corners that had been - Whole swaths of our city, entire neighborhoods, had been under a 24/7 drug dealer occupation for a couple decades. I was elected to restore justice to those poorest of neighborhoods, where it seemed like the police had given up. And that's what we did. I wish we had been earlier implementers in the body cameras.

But having said that, I rolled out a criminal justice reform agenda at the Urban League and some of the things we had in there were things that we did in Baltimore City. Things which sadly subsequent administrations stopped doing, but that actually work, and could be a model for police departments all across the country. Reverse integrity stings, a  civilian review board with its own independent staff. I believe nationally every department should have to report under standards and in a timely fashion its discourtesy, excessive force, lethal use of force.

So no mayor is without critics, and from the first day I ran there were those that said if I were elected, there would be a riot in Baltimore. And then 15 years later, after Freddie Gray's tragic death, some of these same voices found their way to cable news and said "look, this was all his fault."

The truth of the matter is, arrests peaked in Baltimore - and I did promise people there would be a heightened level of enforcement - and I won every council district, including those of my two opponents. Arrests peaked in 2003, and then they declined, along with crime, every year thereafter for the next 12. So the year before before Freddie Gray's tragic custodial death, arrests in Baltimore were actually at a 38 year low. So there are things that one might point to, things that led to a lack of police and community relations, but a heightened level of arrests was not one of them.

Some of the young men that you saw on TV that evening, 12 years ago they would have been six years old at the time that arrests reached their highest. And I was re-elected with 88% of the vote in the city - and I was still white when I was re-elected in a majority African American city. Some of the biggest numbers I received when I ran for governor I received from those poorest parts of Baltimore City where you saw the unrest and on the east side as well.

There's no one in this race who has treated this wound of race and law enforcement and violent crime in America quite as consistently or as persistently as I have. And during my time we actually improved police-community relations, and if I hadn't I wouldn't have been re-elected, or supported overwhelmingly in subsequent elections. And it is a fact that the 4 years with the lowest numbers of police-involved shootings, three of those four were achieved during my term of office.

All of us have a responsibility, and I said this in that talk to the Urban League, to save and redeem more lives. All of us have a responsibility to look at OUR criminal justice polices, laws, and ask ourselves what works? What serves? And what doesn't work and no longer serves, doesn't serve? And that's what I've done through my 15 years, including repealing the death penalty, driving incarceration rates down to 20 year lows, restoring voting rights to 52,000 people, decriminalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana, passing medical marijuana - did I mention the death penalty? It's getting late.

Is it possible to make it harder for the seriously mentally ill and the criminal to get their hands on guns without also making it harder for law abiding citizens, and can we have a one size fits all gun law that will work for Baltimore and, say, rural northern Wisconsin?

I think that banning the sale of combat assault weapons would be something that would be good for us to do as a country. It would be good four our homeland security, it would be good for the desire we have of avoiding these mass shootings, the magazines of 10 or more rounds. Background checks - I think all of those are common sense things that people could agree with. And we have to continue to push for it. There's no other developed nation on the planet that has this problem, that buries as many people from gun violence as we do. And it's possible to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill without impeding hunting and hunting traditions, and that's what we did in Maryland. I sent out a letter encouraging everybody to register to hunt. That's what we needed to do to preserve our open space.

Other than building the Trump wall on the border, foreign policy has been little discussed this election, at least what I've seen. What are you hearing about, and why do you think foreign policy has been kind of set aside?


I do have the sense that people's primary concern today is about their children's future, and the fact they're working harder and it feels like we're slipping further behind, for 70% of us. So that's the primary anxiety.

Having said that, I do believe there's a tremendous desire to have new thinking and fresh approaches when it comes to our foreign policy. I don't think either the Democrats or the Republican Party can say they've figured this world out. It's going to require a much more flexible, adaptable, nimble foreign policy. One that's more engaged, not one that's retreating behind walls and putting its head in the sand. So that's what I'm going to do my very best to speak to in these debates and in the remaining days of the campaign.

There's a connection between a more collaborative and engaged foreign policy and a more far-seeing national security strategy and an economy that works for all of us here at home, They're all connected. America's role in the world is to lead by example, because of a rising global middle class. But we can't do that if we're creating an economy that is increasingly, steadily, leaving more and more of our people behind. We've got to re-establish that economy of opportunity that allows people, whatever rung of the ladder they're on to be able to climb that ladder to better opportunity for their families and their kids. And if we do that then that will make our foreign policy more credible, If we do that we'll be a lot more effective at interrupting the propaganda of ISIS with our actions. If we lead on a humanitarian front by accepting the refugees from Syria that we were asked to accept, rather than kind of mumbling or pretending that 8000 is doing our part. It's kind of hard to have credibility if the only time people see us is at the other end of a drone strike. We need to dial up the whole of government approach to rising threats before they rise to a level where the choices are very binary, American boots on the ground or not.

So that's what I think people are looking for - a more far-seeing national security strategy, an engagement that dials up the diplomacy, and sustainable development in the whole of government rather than always reaching first for the military tool.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Notes on the week

Prepping for a big post tomorrow, so here's some notes on the past week for folks who prefer the blog format to the tweet format - yes, it's 2015 and blogs still exist.

Most of my week has been spent in my neutral role of caucus coordinator for the Johnson County Dems, and in trying to convince various buildings that, no, we really don't have caucuses in people's living rooms any more.
There wasn't room in Karen Kubby's living room last night for the crowd of 50 on hand for the four progressive city council candidates, in what's looking like a VERY clear cut Iowa City election. I was torn between "progressive icon" and "Godmother of the Iowa City left" in the tweet; the former was shorter.

Most predictable party change ever: marriage license denier and ex-jailbird Kim Davis, who was amazingly elected as a Democrat, formally made the switch to the GOP this week.  My bet is: Davis, who took over the job from her mom last year, was one of the last vestiges of the days when Appalachian courthouse politics remained nominally Democratic, even as coal country was shifting to the GOP first in presidential elections, then congressional, then state.

Question: What would have happened if the election clerk had refused on religious grounds to accept her change in voter registration?

Coincidentally, Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson, who was increasingly out of step with the Republicans, changed his affiliation to Democratic last week. Oleson had been persona non grata with the Linn GOP since last year, when he backed his lifelong friend, Democratic Rep. Dan Lundby, in his unsuccessful re-election bid against Republican Ken Rizer.

Lundby's mom, of course, was legendary Republican Senator Mary Lundby, a giant of the GOP's centrist wing and Oleson's political mentor. Mary Lundby had personally asked Oleson to run for the Marion-based supervisor seat in 2008 when her terminal illness took her out of the race, and Oleson was sworn in at her hospital bedside, just days before her passing.

Oleson was also seen not long ago walking the Penford picket line with Bernie Sanders. So the change is not a total shock, and I'd say trading Kim Davis for Brent Oleson is a net gain for the Dems. Welcome aboard, Brent!

Longtime senator Dick Dearden is retiring next year and there's a primary lining up between his daughter, Pam Conner, and attorney labor Nate Boulton. Nate's a Columbus Junction native, and was one of my best door-knocking partners when he was still in high school in 1996. Will have to dig out the pix for some Throwback Thursday...

Critter of the Week #1:
Dylan, the older of my two cats, likes to remind me he's a Certified Mouse Killer, but all he ever seems to catch is this pink bunny.

Critter of the Week #2:
Speaking of yards: friendly advice to fellow west siders within earshot of the stadium. Yardsign damage is almost NEVER part of a Grand Conspiracy. It's usually just somebody who had a few too many. I bring mine in before the post-game foot traffic. And don't forget the Saturday before the city election is both a home game day and Halloween.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Walker Out, Hogg In

It makes sense that the high point of Scott Walker's presidential campaign was getting heckled by cheesehead-wearing protesters at the Iowa State Fair. Faced with his old familiar adversaries, bused in from Madison, you saw a little of the old Walker rage that made him a hero to teacher haters.

But without the immediate presence of his foes, Walker couldn't play hero-victim as easily, and he showed a deep streak of Not Ready For Prime Time. When the story of the Scott Walker presidential campaign is written, it will be a very slim book, as it formally lasted barely two months. And he's free to use my suggested title, From Ass To Asterisk.

My Wisconsin relatives are torn between the schadenfreude of his collapse and the realization that now he'll have more time to screw up the Badger state. It's hard to imagine him doing even more damage than he's already done, and between this and the Packers beating Seattle last night, it's a pretty good 24 hours for the cheeseheads.

Still, I have some regrets. For one, the price for this t-shirt I was planning to auction off at the Johnson County Dems BBQ next month just dropped.

I also have to eat yet another beret, as I had loudly and frequently predicted that Walker would, in the end, be the nominee. I thought his claim to fame, busting public employee unions, would unite both establishment and tea partiers, Because union busting is something that actually matters to the establishment wing of the Republican Party (see the career of Terry Branstad for more details.)

But to the Republican voter base, union busting is soooo 2011. They want what Trump is selling: mass deportation of Hispanics and "elimination" of Muslims. So Walker turned out to be not establishment enough for the establishment, and not crazy enough for the crazies - if only because the crazy bar his risen substantially this year.

So now I need to make a new bet as to eventual nominee...

That's an easy bet in Iowa's Democratic Senate primary. Rob Hogg is ending the exploring and making his announcement tomorrow. Hogg is just what I've been calling for since long before my own brief candidacy - someone who can rally the base, help the rest of the ticket, and be credible in case of the Last Minute Switcheroo Scenario where Chuck Grassley drops out at filing deadline and Pat Grassley runs instead. (A very slim chance, but possible.)

Bonus: Any candidate who exceeds expectations against Grassley - and expectations for Grassley challengers are very low - sets themselves up well for a future run at something.

Rob's a smart guy and his focus on environmental issues are a winner with the party activists who are likely to be voting in the primary. His Cedar Rapids address helps in the primary, too, as 1st District Democrats are likely to have the hottest congressional primary next year. He also has Iowa City roots, and Johnson County always punches above its weight in statewide Democratic primaries, because our courthouse primaries are de facto general elections for those offices and that boosts turnout.

So Hogg instantly ends Tom Fiegen's dubious claim to being "the leading candidate." Fiegen will no doubt continue his claims to being the "Bernie Sanders Democrat" in the race, but history tells us that such support is rarely transferable, especially when it's self-claimed.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Uncontested Races In Most Cities

The minimum wage increase passed by the Johnson County Supervisors may be a hot issue in the county's smaller cities - but in most cities it won't be fought out at the ballot box.

The filing deadline for most cities passed today, and of those cities only North Liberty and Swisher will see contested races.

Iowa City and University Heights, which have earlier deadlines because of their primary provision, will also have contested races, but not primaries.

Coralville will be much, much quieter than it was in 2013, when an open seat mayor's race and a big campaign effort by conservative group Americans For Prosperity boosted turnout to record levels. This year, Mayor John Lundell and council members Jill Dodds and Mitch Gross are unopposed.

Hills, Lone Tree, Oxford, Shueyville, Solon and Tiffin also have no contested races.

North Liberty will see four candidates trying for three seats. Incumbents Terry Donahue and Chris Hoffman are being challenged by new candidates Jay Johnson and Jim Sayre. The third incumbent, Colleen Chipman (of the Seelman-Mascher family) is stepping down.

In Swisher, where officials are planning a vote to opt out of the minimum wage, incumbents Mary Gudenkauf and Michael Stagg are challenged by Rebecca Neuendorf and Tiffany Dague in a race for three spots. (Sandy Fults is not running again.) Mayor Chris Taylor is unopposed.

In most cities, incumbents are running unopposed, or new candidates recruited by the current city officials are stepping up. Lone Tree will see a new mayor as Rick Ogren steps down; council member Sandra Flake is unopposed.

They said Don Saxton was mayor of Oxford for life, and he almost was, as he passed away just months after retiring in 2013. Saxton had been mayor for decades, but his chosen successor, Gary Wilkinson, lasted just two, and now no one wants the job. The winner will be settled by write-ins.

Two cities have ballot issues. Oxford will vote on a library levy. And as noted last month, University Heights, the last city where the whole council is up for two year terms every cycle, will vote on changing to staggered four year terms.

(Noted: de-construction is moving ahead at the St. Andrew Church property. Re-development of that land fueled three consecutive cycles of high turnout close elections between build it bigger and build it smaller factions. The build it bigger faction swept in 2013, and this year only one self-starter candidate is challenging.)

If the wage fight is going to play out in any city's election, it's in Iowa City's race for four seats (in three separate contests). Four progressive candidates - incumbent Jim Throgmorton and challengers Rockne Cole, Pauline Taylor and John Thomas - have pledged to support the higher wage, have hosted one joint event, and are planning at least two more, including one at the home of left icon Karen Kubby on September 25.
Meanwhile city staff - at the behest of incumbents Rick Dobyns and Michelle Payne, perhaps? - seems to be moving at a turtle's pace on an issue that really should be out in the open before people vote.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The Debate Debate: Up to Clinton & Obama

I've long thought debates are over-rated. They sway few truly undecided voters, and the audience is mostly the true believers and the press.

That said, there's a fair amount of grumbling in the Democratic Party, and even in the higher levels of the Democratic Party, about the smaller number of debates in 2016 compared to 2008.

Most notably, the titular vice chairs of the DNC, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and former Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, in a rare open dissent, publicly called on chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to schedule more debate.

DWS's response to the debate debate was direct and blunt: "There will be six debates. Period." And she's not even bothering to hide her contempt for Martin O'Malley.
Classic stink eye there.

Let's address the donkey in the room here. Despite her official chair stance neutrality, Wasserman Schultz is pretty obviously in the Hillary Clinton camp, as she was in 2008 until the bitter end, and as she was when she spent months on cable shows defending her home state's rule breaking and attacking caucus states and early states. That, and her Israel First foreign policy views, are why I'm not a fan.

And let's also set aside the titles. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is not really in charge here. No national party chair is, not when the party has a president in the White House.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is clearly not going to listen to the Sandernistas or the backers of the single digit three. There are two people she's going to listen to: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, I'm not sure in which order. The public complaints only matter in the sense that they get the two people with the real power to act.

The push for more debates needs to come from Hillary herself, and for her to push for that she needs to be convinced it's in her interest. Or it needs to come from Wasserman Schultz's boss, the president, who is legacy focused, trying to deal with a WIll He Or Won't He vice president (won't) and may well want to stay out of it.

Hillary has said the right things...
"I debated a lot in 2008 and I would certainly be there with lots of enthusiasm and energy if (the DNC) decide to add more debates," Clinton said during a press conference in Portsmouth. "And I think that's the message a lot of people are sending their way."
...in public.

But the important conversation about debates isn't the public conversation. It's the private conversation that is - or, more likely, is not - happening.

Hillary Clinton can absolutely hold her own in a debate, and none of the opponents are a Barack Obama or a John Edwards or a Joe Biden this time. She has nothing to fear, and I doubt she's scared.

But the mere fact of a debate makes Sanders and O'Malley and Webb and even Chaffee her equal for that 90 to 120 minutes.

And perhaps more important, because the main audience for that debate is not Truly Undecided Voters, but the media, the media (which as we all know just ADORES Hillary Clinton) gets to write the narrative. Somebody - not Sanders or O'Malley, probably Lincoln "Nothing To Lose" Chaffee - makes The Character Attack or The Iraq War Vote Attack, and bada bing, that's the national headline and sound bite.

If Hillary really wants more debates, she can get more debates. She calls Debbie Wasserman Schultz and says "I really seriously do want more debates." Barack Obama could make that call to Clinton and Wasserman Schultz too. Boom. Debbie schedules them tomorrow.

But not only is she not doing that, she's doubling down. "Six. Debates. Period." She's also willing to make herself the scapegoat and take the heat from the party base.

That tells us all we need to know about how the private conversations are going. And it's getting really late.