Taking Back the House

Taking Back the House

Ruy Teixeira, who always has interesting demographic takes on the politics of our era writes:

"In 2006 Democrats would be wise to target Republicans representing high-risk districts: districts that lean Democratic in presidential elections... In order to maximize their gains, Democrats need to recruit strong challengers in these high-risk GOP districts and make sure that these challengers have the funds needed to wage competitive campaigns.

So where are these high-risk Republican districts? There are currently 25 such GOP districts: Colorado 7; Connecticut 2, 4, and 5; Delaware AL; Florida 10 and 22; Illinois 10; Iowa 1 and 2; Kentucky 3; Nevada 3; New Hampshire 2; New Jersey 2, 3, and 4; New Mexico 1; New York 3, 13, and 25; Pennsylvania 6, 7, 8, and 15; and Washington 8."

Nice concept - in theory. But as the DCCC learned the hard way in 2002, simple party ID of the district is not enough.

Iowa 2 may be one of the most Democratic districts held by a Republican. We've tried everything to tie Jim Leach to Gingrich, to DeLay. We've repeatedly pointed out that his "moderate" votes are always cast when it doesn't matter, when the leadership has the votes. But when they need to struggle for 218, Leach is there.

But the argument is complex and hard to sell. With the defeat of Connie Morella in 2002, Leach is the last remaining Token Republican for "independent" groups to endorse and maintain a thin veneer of bipartisanship. (One of the main reasons I refuse to support the Sierra Club)

My pet theory is that voters are doing the same thing. People are taught in our political culture to "vote the person not the party" and that partisanship is Bad. So a lot of basically progressive people vote for Leach in order to make themselves feel good because they didn't vote a straight ticket.

At one time I thought Leach might be vulnerable in a GOP primary. Then I spend a lot of time in a rural Republican area during my 1996 legislative race. Since then I've been convinced that the GOP knows he's the only Republican who can hold Iowa 2. He may never break 60% again just because of the district's party ID. But taking that last ten percent has been our quest for the grail since at least 1994... and if Ruy, or anyone, has a mahic bullet, I'd be glad.