Caucuses: Slogging Through The Paperwork

Caucuses: Slogging Through The Paperwork

Took the day off work to try to assemble Johnson County's caucus lists. One can only stare at the paperwork so long, so I took an exercise break. The blogging is a break in the middle of the exercise break. You still following this?

Ed Fallon is claiming "victory" but I suspect that's dubious at best.

The overwhelming majority of Johnson County precincts did not break into preference groups. Attendance was low enough that nearly anyone who wanted to be a delegate could get a seat. So... Fallon is claiming hard numbers of delegates, but how do you measure that? There was no reporting system, as there is in a presidential year.

I got elected as a delegate, with no contest in my precinct. We has 16 people, and 9 delegate seats. I suggested we see how many people wanted to be delegates. Seven hands went up quickly. Two more hands went up after a little coaxing. End of election. I never told anyone at my caucus who I supported for governor.

It's also unclear from looking at all this paper who was elected from an organized preference group, and who merely thought they were supposed to indicate a preference on the sheet.

I think what's really happening is that Ed Fallon is a candidate who is attractive to issue-oriented party activists. That base is highly concentrated in a setting like an off-year caucus, and heavily diluted in a high-turnout primary.

Let's say there's 15 of these folks in a precinct. Ten of them go to an off-year caucus, where a grand total of 20 people show up. That's 50%. That's great. So now it's June 6. All 15 go to vote in the primary - but 200 people vote in the precinct. That's 7.5%. A bigger shot of gin, but diluted with a lot more tonic.

Let's switch analogies. Last year Jimmy Buffett released a new album. It hit the charts at Number One its first week - without making any impact on the contemporary music scene, and sank from sight like an old pirate boat the next week. And without a major hit in 25 years, Jimmy continues to sell out shows across the country. Why? Because of the Parrotheads. He has a devoted, loyal base that buys everything he puts out on release day (a cynic might say "that's because they're too old to grasp the concept of downloading"), that follows him on tour and goes to multiple shows.

But in politics, you're not looking for the most LOYAL base of fans. You need the BIGGEST base of fans. And it's rare that the best is also the most popular. I could really stretch this analogy...

Not saying any of this to diss Ed - I like him, and I may still go there. But I think we just need to be realistic about the relative insignificance of the caucuses as a show of support. It just mean Fallon has the most Parrotheads. But depth of support does not equal breadth of support.