Chris Bowers at MyDD thinks so, picking up on what I noted six weeks ago: that you can't leapfrog back much more without caucusing with Santa. (That's for us secular Democrats; Republicans will of course be caucusing with Baby Jesus.)
Bowers writes:
What earlier dates could New Hampshire actually choose? A close look reveals they do not have many options. Consider the following conditions:
1. New Hampshire will hold its caucus on a Tuesday. Or, at least I assume they will.
2. Nevada is holding its caucus on Saturday, January 19th.
3. New Hampshire will only move its primary to a point at least seven days before Nevada.
4. Iowa will hold its caucus eight days before New Hampshire. Both Iowa and New Hampshire agree on this.
5. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire will hold their caucus / primary during, immediately following, or immediately preceding a major national holiday.
We passed resolutions to the effect of #5 at many 2006 caucuses but we meant MLK day, not Christmas Eve. As for point 4, the DI has an article today discussing ongoing IA-NH cooperation.
Chris predicts, and likes, this calendar:
December 10th (Monday): Iowa December 18th (Tuesday): New Hampshire January 19th (Saturday): Nevada (Deeth notes: 1/19 was Iowa Caucus Night in `04) January 29th (Tuesday): South Carolina, Florida, Michigan February 5th (Tuesday) National Primary
"Maybe fixing the primary calendar requires Iowa and New Hampshire to move to mid-December. I say they go for it."
This calendar is the same as presently, tentatively scheduled, except for IA and NH.
Bowers thinks his calendar, while placating us in the Selfish States, actually reduces our impact because the Big Mo diminishes over a de facto holiday time out.
Even if the calendar doesn't change, this raises another question: With the race in the critical last days, how close to the holidays can candidates get away with campaigning? Are caucus goers going to take offense at an "over-eager" candidate holding a Dec. 23 (two days to Christmas and end of Hanukkah) event? How about Boxing Day, when we're all returning the presents we don't like?
Note that as late as 1996, Iowa was February 12, a week after National Primary Day 2008.
Our nominating process isn't front loaded at all compared to a parliamentary system; it's backwards. In a parliamentary country, the party leader who has just lost an election (unless it was close or Better Than Expected) resigns the next morning and the party starts choosing a new leader; immediately after the general election, not before the general election.
I stand by my earlier prediction. Pushing the nomination schedule back into a new calendar year breaks a key psychological barrier and will cause the DNC to step in. Caucus night will be January 7, and this will be the last time Iowa is Special.
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