Sunday, November 04, 2007

Ears of Experience or Sour Milk? The Law of 14 in 2008

Ears of Experience or Sour Milk? The Law of 14 in 2008

As Bill Richardson is fond of saying, governors get elected president. At least that's borne out in my adult lifetime: four governors and an incumbent vice president (two incumbent VPs if you count Al Gore.) Richardson likes to tout this over the Senate-heavy Democratic field. In the last century, only two sitting Senators - John Kennedy and Warren Harding - have moved into the White House.

But the true sign of doom seems to be looooooong Senate service. No candidate has ever - and I mean back to George Washington ever -- turned a long career in the Senate into the Presidency. The landscape is littered with the bodies of those who tried. John Kerry and Bob Dole got nominations. But other men who are widely respected elder statesmen in DC have failed miserably in the chat and chews of Iowa: Richard Lugar, Orrin Hatch, Ernest Hollings, Alan Cranston, even back to Ed Muskie and Henry Jackson. Ted Kennedy's 18 years of Senate experience at the time he ran for President in 1980 dwarfed his older brother's eight.

Of course, Dan Quayle learned the hard lesson about comparing one's experience to JFK, and Ted gave himself the added challenge of trying to oust an incumbent of his own party. But none of this bodes well for Joe Biden's ears of experience or Chris Dodd's white hair.


Four years ago, writing in Reason, Jonathan Rausch proposed the "Law of 14":

With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president.


Rauch defines "major office" as a Congressional seat, governor, or big city mayor. "The rule is a maximum, not a minimum. Generals and other famous personages can go straight to the top. But if a politician first runs for some other major office, the 14-year clock starts ticking."  Those aren't ears of experience -- they're stale milk cartons.

Looking to the Hall of Presidents, soon to appear on dollar coins near you, we see:

PresidentFirst Major OfficeYearShelf life
Bush 43Governor19946
Clinton 42Governor197814
Bush 41House196614 (to VP)
ReaganGovernor196614
CarterGovernor19706
NixonHouse19466 (to VP)
KennedyHouse194614
JohnsonHouse193723 (to VP)
EisenhowerPresident19520
TrumanSenator193410 (to VP)
RooseveltGovernor19284
HooverCabinet19218
CoolidgeGovernor19182 (to VP)
HardingSenator19146
WilsonGovernor19102
TaftCabinet19044
T. RooseveltGovernor18982 (to VP)


(Note: I included cabinet posts for Taft and Hoover, whose first elected office was the Presidency, but either way they're under 14.)


Even the one exception helps prove the rule. LBJ lost the 1960 nomination to fresher face JFK, then got the vice presidency as a consolation prize because they needed to win Texas really, really bad.


Where's Gerald Ford on our roll call? Down below. With the losers. His decades in Congress were no match for that Jimmy Carter grin.


 
 
 
LoserFirst Major OfficeYearShelf life
KerrySenate198420
GoreHouse197616
DoleHouse196026
DukakisGovernor197414
MondaleSenate196412 (to VP)
FordHouse194827 (to VP)
McGovernHouse195616
HumphreySenate194816 (to VP)
Mayor194519




Fast forwarding to the present, this significantly narrows our field of potential winners. Oh, not nominees - the gallery of the defeated will show you that, and for recommended reading on those men, find yourself a used copy of the long out of print "They Also Ran" by Irving Stone, a wonderful collection of biographies of the defeated candidates.


Note that on the Democratic side, the freshest faces are the leaders, and while Richardson cites his gubernatorial credentials, his House tenure could cause some problems.


 
 
 
 
CandidateFirst Major OfficeYearShelf life
ObamaSenate20044
Clinton 44Senate20008
EdwardsSenate199810
RichardsonHouse198226
KucinichMayor197731
DoddHouse197434
BidenSenate197236
GravelSenate196840

It's yet to be determined: if First Lady constitutes a "major office." (These sorts of rules can always be tweaked retroactively.)


On the GOP side, again note the rough correlation between freshness and success, though Tancredo messes with that a bit. And Rudy Giuliani is getting to the edge of his sell-by date.


 
 
 
 
CandidateFirst Major OfficeYearShelf life
RomneyGovernor20026
TancredoHouse199810
HuckabeeGovernor199612
F ThompsonSenate199414
BrownbackHouse199414
GiulianiMayor199315
T. ThompsonGovernor198622
McCainHouse198226
HunterHouse198226
PaulHouse197632


The really funny thing, though, is that Ron Paul, supposedly the "fresh" face on the GOP side, was actually the first of the Republican contenders to win an election, back in the disco era.


Of course, a year from now the Law of 14 could be as useful as the Washington Redskins Rule. Used to be if the Redskins won their last home game before the election, the GOP would win, but if they lost it was a Democratic year. This made me feel even more glee than usual when my Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins in October 2004, but it didn't help John Kerry a bit. (Perhaps because Kerry famously called the Packers' stadium, Lambeau Field, "Lambert" field while campaigning in Green Bay.)


But perhaps the Law of 14 reflects a certain reality.  Foreign service officers and the higher ranks of the military have "up or out" rules: you either get promoted in a certain time frame or you're gone.  Maybe that's an unwritten political rule as well.


And maybe more substantial reasons will cause the American people to kill off the Law of 14. After all, George Bush took office twice over the more experienced candidate, and look what happened.

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