Thursday, March 06, 2008

God What A Mess

God What A Mess On The Ladder Of Success

The line stuck in my head so just as good an excuse as any to play the Best. Video. Ever.

I think the last time I posted that it was with Mike Gravel throwing the rock in the lake. Mike's been mathematically eliminated, but apparantly is still available if the convention deadlocks. (Dennis K. did get renominated, btw.)

Diarist PocketNines at Kos does the delegate math and shows that in a bipolar race like this it's the blowouts that matter. The Democratic nomination process is designed to make sure everybode gets to feel good and be included, not to settle a cage math to the death between two giants. In a four delegate district, you have to win damn near two to one to pick up that third delegate...
4 delegates - 25%+ to get from 2-2 to 3-1
5 delegates - 40%+ to get from 3-2 to 4-1
6 delegates - 16.7%+ to get from 3-3 to 4-2
7 delegates - 28.6%+ to get from 4-3 to 5-2

and there just aren't that many left for Hillary to pick up. If she wins EVERY remaining contest by 10 points, she only picks up 55 delegates.

But of course, there's Florida and Michigan. Dueling memos yesterday. Governors Crist and Granholm:
"We each will call upon our respective state and national party chairs to resolve this matter and to ensure that the voters of Michigan and Florida are full participants in the formal selection of their parties' nominees. We must restore the rights of the more than 5 million voters whose voices have been silenced.”

But Granholm's also quoted saying she'll consider a caucus:
Granholm made it clear her first choice would be to find a way to seat the delegates from the January 15 Michigan primary, but acknowledged the fact that Barack Obama was not on the ballot creates a fairness issue.

"It could not be a primary because a primary is publicly paid for, and the taxpayers would not spend any more tax dollars on a primary. So if there's anything it would have to be a caucus, but we'd have to have a way to pay for it without taxpayer dollars."

Howard Dean, still wondering why Hillary was reciting a list of states Tuesday night without the obligatory YEEAH! at the end:
Either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a party process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates.

Speaking of do-overs, Clark County NV (Vegas Baby) has rescheduled its convention, which melted down in chaos Feb. 23, for April 12. If this devolves into trench warfare, conventions like that, and Iowa's county conventions a week from Saturday, will be Big Deals.

Meanwhile, John McCain made an obsequious appearance at the White House and let W define the terms of the race: "He’s not going to change when it comes to taking on the enemy." 100 more years! 100 more years! McCain's clearly adopting the Anything You Say Boss strategy that worked so well for Hubert Humphrey in 1968.

Closer to home, candidacies emerging:

  • The Register has former State Rep. George Eichhorn getting ready to take on Tom Harkin, since he needs something to do after losing to McKinley Bailey two years ago.
  • Charlotte Eby has winger State Sen. David Hartsuch of Davenport thinking about -- but not committing to -- running against Bruce Braley. Hartsuch knocked off moderate Maggie Tinsman in a hot GOP primary two years ago. The plea doesn't make it sound like a top tier race: “If Bruce Braley is allowed to run unopposed, this will have drastic consequences for the Republican Party in the 1st District,” he wrote supporters. Positioning himself as a sacrificial lamb? It's safe for Hartsuch -- he's mid-term so keeps his senate seat either way.
  • Cyclone Conservatives has his buddy Ryan Rhodes taking on Dem Beth Wessel-Kroeschell in Ames. Young or student candidates tend to do better in races Back Home (see McKinley Bailey above) than in college towns. You need that combination of young voters AND the folks who knew you when you were a kid. I had a GOP friend here in Iowa City who ran a go-getter, well funded race in `92 and still only got 44% against an incumbent who didn't do much. It's hard to overcome the local partisanship wave in a presidential year. Believe me, I know.
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