Monday, March 31, 2008

McCain Narrows Gap in Iowa Electronic Markets

McCain Narrows Gap in Iowa Electronic Markets

John McCain is narrowing the gap against the Democratic nominee, whoever that may be, in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988. In the winner-take-all general election market, the Republican contract (McCain isn't named) was trading at 47 cents, meaning investors think there is a 47 percent probability that the Republicans will win the popular vote. The Democratic contract still leads at 53.3 cents, but only a month ago the Democrats were leading by 57 cents to 35 cents.

In the primary election markets, McCain's price has stabilized in the mid-90s since his win in the Jan. 29 Florida primary. On the Democratic side, there has been some volatility, but Barack Obama has rarely dropped below 70 cents since Super Tuesday. On Monday morning, Obama was trading at 79 cents, with Hillary Clinton at 15.2 cents. The "rest of field" contract, which presumably at this point means a savior candidate coming to the rescue at a deadlocked convention, has slowly inched up to 4.2 cents.

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