Wednesday, May 14, 2008

No Change on Iowa Electronic Markets After WV

No Change on Iowa Electronic Markets After WV

Barack Obama's big lead in the Iowa Electronic Markets is virtually unchanged despite a big loss Tuesday in West Virginia.

At midnight, as Hillary Clinton rolled up a 67 percent to 26 percent win, Obama's IEM shares were trading at 89.9 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 90 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. That price has wavered less than a cent in the past week, and is settling into the 90 percent range typically seen on the IEM for presumptive nominees.

Hillary Clinton shares were trading for 7.1 cents, down from 8.9 cents at the end of Monday.

Obama has held the lead in the IEM Democratic nomination since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. In the general election winner-take-all market, the Democrats hold a 58 percent to 42 percent lead over the Republican candidate.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

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