Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Obama Spikes on Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama Spikes on Iowa Electronic Markets

Barack Obama's big Tuesday win in North Carolina and narrow loss (but they're still counting) in Indiana has led to a price jump on the Iowa Electronic Markets.

As of 9:00 Wednesday morning, Obama shares were trading at 87 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 87 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. That's up from 72 cents at the end of the day Monday.

Hillary Clinton shares were trading for 9 cents, down from 26 cents at the end of Monday.

The dramatic price shifts began at 7:30 Tuesday night, when networks called North Carolina for Obama at the moment the polls closed.

Obama has held the lead in the IEM since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

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