Monday, September 29, 2008

McCain Drops in Iowa Electronic Markets Post-Debate

McCain Drops in Iowa Electronic Markets Post-Debate

John McCain's political stock dropped--literally--after Friday's debate with Barack Obama, or so investors on the Iowa Electronic Markets think.

At 9 a.m. Monday, McCain's shares were trading for 32 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All presidential market, meaning traders give the McCain-Palin ticket only 32 percent chance of winning. On Friday, before the debate, McCain was trading at 37 cents.

Shares for the Democratic Obama-Biden ticket were at 67 cents Monday, up from 62 cents Friday. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

In the Vote Share market, which pays a penny per percentage point, McCain was selling for 47.3 cents this morning, which means investors believe he will receive 47.3 percent of the two-party popular vote in November. Obama was selling for 53.8 cents on the Vote Share market. Shares in the Vote Share market pay in proportion to the percentage.

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