Monday, November 24, 2008

Iowa Electronic Markets Within Half A Point

Iowa Electronic Markets Within Half A Point
The Iowa Electronic Markets got it right again:
With all the votes counted, the Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the final vote count in this year's presidential election to within a half percentage point.

Prices on the IEM's Vote Share Market predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.55 percent of the two-party presidential popular vote, and John McCain would receive 46.45.

After the ballots were counted, Obama received 53.2 percent of the vote, and McCain received 46.8 percent, leaving an average error per contract of only .3 percent.

The average absolute error by public opinion polls, meanwhile, was 1.2 percent.

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