Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Things to Watch Tuesday

Things to Watch Tuesday

The DI chimes in with an election morning endorsement of Connie Champion, Dan Tallon and, again, Susan Mims: "While many have lined up behind UI senior Jeff Shipley, we view it as more important for a candidate to substantively represent student and community interests than to merely be a student."

Here's some numbers to watch for until the numbers that matter come out at closing time:

Turnout: Our benchmark is record low 1999: 7,842 Iowa City voters. The early voting is barely half the already low `99 level: 1065 in the box vs. 2017 a decade ago. You might even want to look at the 5,914 voters from October 1979, the record-high primary. We might be hard pressed to top that.

Turnout by precinct: That's the ball game in Iowa City, but 1999 doesn't work for comparison because the lines are different. (Especially precinct 6. In the 1990s that was a campus precinct; in the 2000s it's a senior-heavy east side area.) Look at 2003, the only city election under the present lines with relatively low turnout. Then look at the 2008 presidential election. Basically, if you don't see presidential numbers in the key student precincts, you know how this will turn out. Precincts 3, 5, 11 and 19 are student-dominated. 20, 21 and 22 have significant student populations, but 22 is also home for Terry Dickens and Susan Mims.

The Southeast Side: Watch turnout in 12, 14 and 15. How will that play in the Champion-McCallum Race?

University Heights: By all accounts this is the hot spot in the county. Don Baxter notes:
"The pro-rezoning/density group can be remembered by the male candidates first letters of their last names coincide with the first letters of our town 'slogan', 'Height of Good Living', plus all the women candidates: Haverkamp, Giese, Laverman, From, Yeggy and Moore."

UPDATE: 9:00 turnout is only 435, less than 1 percent and less than half of 1999. Factoid: the four core student precincts (3,5, 11, 19) have seen a total -- a TOTAL! -- of three voters.

UPDATE 2: 11:00 Iowa City turnout is 933 (1.93%). In the first 4 1/2 hours, Precinct 5 at the UI Library has seen ZERO VOTERS. And it turns out 1985 actually had lower turnout than 1999--but we're below even that.

UPDATE 3: 3:00 Iowa City turnout is 1772 (3.7%) At least someone finally voted at the UI library, but the student precincts are all still under 1 percent.

U-Heights is already over 20% turnout; once the absentee is figured in they could to 50 percent. Getting up toward governor's election levels there... Hills is emerging as another hot spot.

No comments: