If the conservative American Future Fund is bragging about these numbers, then I don't think things are as doomy-gloomy for Dems as the pundits would have you believe:
The big surprise is that the new survey shows Boswell, a seven-term congressman, leading Republican candidate Brad Zaun, a state senator from Urbandale. Zaun had been leading Boswell in two previous polls conducted by other organizations.I didn't really care for the big schadenfreude pile-on against Zaun over his personal life... but I think it had an impact.
In a head-to-head race in the 3rd District, which includes Polk County and 11 other counties in east-central and southern Iowa, the poll shows Boswell leading Zaun by 48 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent supporting another candidate or no candidate, and 11 percent undecided...
What hasn't had an impact is AFF's money drop against Bruce Braley in the 1st CD. Their own poll has Broooooce up 50-39 over Some Dude Republican Ben Lange.
And here in the 2nd CD they've got Dave Loebsack up 8 points over MMM, as opposed to that four point margin Miller-Meeks released from her internal poll a month or so back. And that's basically what American Future Fund is here; a GOP internal poll.
UPDATE: From my Facebook comments, Iowa City's favorite Rutgers political scientist David Redlawsk writes: "And note this is a poll by a conservative group. The N is very small at only 300 but gives a sense that they are doing pretty well in this environment so far."
"Moderette" (sic) Miller-Meeks also seems to have some party unity issues, if you read Coralville Courier: "I'm not buying her 'I'm a victim too, I feel your pain' crap. This woman will say and do anything to get elected. She plays games, AS IF we don't already have enough of that in Washington!" (Don't forget, tea partiers have two alternatives, Libertarian Gary Sicard and Jon Tack of the Constitution Party, while Loebsack doesn't have to contend with a Green like he did in `08.)