Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Definitely a very slim chance we'll survive

Are Democrats are facing a disaster of biblical proportions. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria? Maybe, but listen to the wisdom of the Ghostbusters:
Dr. Egon Spengler: Not necessarily. There's definitely a very slim chance we'll survive.
Dr. Peter Venkman: I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT!
Then of course our heroes make the gutsy move, cross the streams, and defeat evil.

(I suppose in this analogy the American electorate is the demonically possessed Sigourney Weaver, “the nice lady who paid us in advance before she became a dog.” That works, but it makes President Obama Bill Murray and would-be Speaker John Boehner the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man…)

So that’s the movies. Back in real life, who you gonna call? Everyone on your voter list.
Team Culver released an internal poll this week showing that the governor has closed the gap with Terry Branstad to six points. That’s in the zone where the Democratic Party’s superior field program can make the difference.

On the national level, polls are so volatile that even the best number crunchers admit that they don’t really know what’s going to happen. But NBC’s First Read offers a scenario where Democrats keep the U.S. House of Representatives:
It’s a tricky path, but it’s a path we’ve seen traveled before in politics (John McCain’s presidential primary in ’08), sports (the Red Sox vs. the Yankees in ’04), and even movies (the blackjack scene in “The Hangover”) — to win, you have to run the table.
First, Democrats need to win the four or five GOP-held seats they’re counting on, which would increase the Republicans’ Magic Number from 39 to 43 or 44 (i.e., the GOP needs to pick up 43 or 44 seats to win back the House)… Then Democrats need to triumph in the Toss-Up contests where they’re still competing…
Definitely a very slim chance we’ll survive. Chris Bowers at Daily Kos offers some real world analogies:
Yes, Democrats are behind. However, a 21% chance of victory is far from being defeated. Your odds of rolling doubles in Monopoly, thus winning a second roll or getting you out of jail, are lower (17%) than the odds of Democrats winning the House. But everyone who has ever played Monopoly has rolled doubles many times.
So if there’s something strange in your neighborhood, it’s probably Democrats canvassing your precinct.
We finally had that Conlin-Grassley debate yesterday: "She delivered a polished performance while he committed some unforced errors."

Also, the P-C wraps up its endorsements with Governor Culver.

The Onion says it's all about the yard signs. With yesterday's wind storm, how long until we start hearing the old 'stolen yard sign' finger-pointing? My Jon Murphy flew away, but I was getting ready to rotate my signs anyway.

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