Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Election Day

Election Day

The Longest Day has arrived and here's some reading to keep you occupied:

The mighty Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame predicts a GOP House takeover, but also offers 5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House:
The case that Democrats could do better than expected — not well, by any means, merely better than expected — rests a little more in the realm of what artists call negative space: not what there is, but in what there isn’t. There aren’t 50, or even more than about 25, districts in which Republican candidates are unambiguous favorites. There isn’t agreement among pollsters about how the enthusiasm gap is liable to manifest itself. There isn’t any one poll or one forecasting method that is clairvoyant, or that hasn’t made some pretty significant errors in the past.

Instead, the case for Democrats is basically: yes, the news is bad, it just isn’t exactly as bad as you think, or at least we can’t be sure that it is.

Multiple hour by hour guides to watching the results roll in

Silver also has one of many hour by hour guides to watching the results roll in. Others:
  • Chris Cillizza, Washington Post
  • Steve Singiser of Daily Kos has two: House and Senate/governors.
  • Swing State Project in map and table format

    Though if it's before 9 in Iowa, you really should be doing GOTV instead of watching returns.

    A couple notes from Iowa Republicans: Coralville Courier's predictions are not all doom and gloom for Dems, and Craig Robinson has a legislative seats to watch piece.

    Locally: Look here for numbers. We're almost certainly looking at a Johnson County turnout record. The old mark is 44,292 from four years ago. There's already 24,778 absentees returned (with more to come), 10,000 more than in 2006. We saw just over 28,000 at the polls in 2006; the early voting surge may eat into that a bit, especially since Republicans actually played the early voting game this cycle. But election day turnout can drop by 8,000 yet still beat the overall turnout record.

    Factoid: Going into Election Day, county registration is higher (92,610) than it was going into the presidential (92,222). Plus we have something we didn't have in 2006: election day registration. If you're watching the 21 bar race, watch Iowa City precincts 3,5, 11, 19, and 20.

    As usual tune in extremely late for my number crunching.
  • No comments: