Friday, May 06, 2011

District of the Day: Senate District 10, House District 19 and 20

District of the Day: Senate District 10, House District 19 and 20

Senate District 10

Registration: D 10,600, R 14,225, N 15,514, total 40,363, R+ 3625
No Incumbent

Dallas County was the fastest growing part of the state last decade, and they've outgrown sharing a Senate district with Boone and Republican Jerry Behn. This decade, most of Dallas anchors a new seat, adding Guthrie and Adair counties and a small chunk of Cass out of Nancy Boettger's old district. (As noted yesterday and many times before, she's committed to staying where she is.)

This turf is likely to be Ground Zero for the epic Boswell-Latham battle, so Democrats will need a serious effort even if the numbers aren't great. I'd bet on a hot, maybe multi-cornered, GOP primary, which could produce an extreme candidate and a Democratic opportunity (see that House seat in Carroll for a recent example).

UPDATE May 31: First announced candidate is Jake Chapman of Adel, businessman and president of the Dallas County Young Republicans. Also noted in the comments: Brenna Findley, the GOP's 2010 nominee for attorney general, also lives in these parts.

The two House incumbents seem a bit senior, rural and old to be looking at a move to the Senate, though one is representing a Senate-sized district already.

House District 19

Registration: D 5059, R 7324, N 7944, total 20340, R+ 2265
Incumbent: Ralph Watts, R-Adel

Watts, 66, went to the house in 2002 when old House 47 was created. He may have had the biggest population House district in the state by decade's end. He loses Waukee and the Dallas County parts of West Des Moines and Clive; together that makes up a whole new House District, the open 44.

Watts keeps Dallas Center, Adel, and Woodward, adds Dexter and Redfield, and loses a township here and there (including a couple in Boone County.) He also picks up a little corner of Polk, north of the Saylorville Reservoir and including Polk City, from Kevin Koester's overpopulated district. The end result of all this demographic and geographic change is a loss of 2000 Republicans for Watts. In the old lines he won with 60% in 2008 and 67% in 2010.

House District 20

Registration: D 5541, R 6901, N 7570, total 20023, R+ 1360
Incumbent: Clel Baudler, R-Greenfield

I'm still trying to figure out why Clel Baudler voted no on the map. He wasn't paired or obviously hurt like the other no voters. He loses about 600 Republicans from the old district, but still has a good edge. He keeps the core of his old district 58, all of Guthrie and Adair counties and a similar corner of Cass, which is pretty good considering the growth just to the east in Dallas. He was unopposed in 2006, won with 58% in 2008, and beat an independent in 2010.

Maybe he was upset about losing Audubon County to Dan Muhlbauer, or picking up Perry from the Boone-based district. Maybe he was unhappy that Nancy Boettger got burned in the Senate map.

Maybe he was smoking his duly prescribed medical marijuana. Or maybe his clerk pushed the wrong button.

Anyway, if the 72 year old Baudler, first elected in 1998, is really annoyed with the map he could just call it quits.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

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