Tuesday, July 12, 2011

The Poll Plus

TheIowaRepublican Poll Plus

No one teases out a poll better than TheIowaRepublican. Most outfits start with the big top of the ticket race, then drag the story out a few more days with the downballot and the issues. Not TIR. They start with "ethanol not a deal-breaker" and hit yesterday with the declared presidential candidates.

But wait, there's more! You also get, today, the presidential poll with four undeclared candidates added:
Romney 18
Bachmann 15
Christie 13
Cain 7
Palin 7
Perry 6
Pawlenty 6
Paul 5
Gingrich 3
Giuliani 2
Santorum 1
Huntsman 1
Christie has all but made the Sherman Statement, and even at 13 percent he isn't in nearly the position Fred Thompson was pre-candidacy at just about this time four years ago. Of the others, the platypus looks most likely; Palin, who knows, Rudy, who cares.

Lots of interesting cross-tabs; this is exactlyt why lefties should read righty blogs and vice versa. (Though I wish I had the resources to do polling...) Craig Robinson's takeaway: "Bachmann has the squishiest support of the candidates campaigning in Iowa."

Seems Bachmann is also somewhat squishy when it comes to in-person criticism; the Miami Herald checks the police records and finds she's quick to call the cops.

But Jonathan Martin at Politico chimes in with an interesting comparison:
Michele Bachmann hasn’t declared yet that she’s running to represent “the Republican wing of the Republican Party,” but that’s all that’s missing from a presidential bid that bears more than a passing resemblance to Democrat Howard Dean’s in 2004.
Don't cringe, I see the pattern. Dramatic on-line fundraising, strong message, appeal to base. Things looked really great for Dean at this point in July 2003, in the glory days of The Bat and Meetup.

Will Bachmann meet the same fate?
“[Democratic primary voters] were still so afraid of what Bush could do in a second term that in the end they got pragmatic,” recalled Joe Trippi, who managed Dean’s campaign. “Obama engenders that same anxiety and fear within the Republican base.”
Dean peaked about a month too early, right around the time of the Tom Harkin and (shudder) Al Gore endorsements. I can see the same happening in about December with Steve King. Then at the last minute, in the week before the caucuses (remember that four way dead heat Register poll?) everyone chickened out. "We need someone who can beat Bush. They can't attack John Kerry -- he's a war hero!" Don't forget that THIS:

happened AFTER the much more important third place finish.

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