Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Not Mitt Of The Month: This One May Last

Despite all the volatility, the GOP nomination race has been remarkably stable. One graph speaks volumes:

Bachmann didn't peak quite that high in July, but the dynamic is the same.

As we await the anoinments by the famIly leader and Steve King, remember this: FOr folks like BVP, winning is less important than control of the party. Witness the senate seats that were pissed away in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado last year. As JohnKWilson puts it at Kos:
The establishment Republicans are terrified of an Obama vs. Gingrich match-up in 2012, but the Republican Party has been taken over by the far right wing of the party, and they would rather lose to Obama if they can preserve conservative purity.
My thoughts on the GOP race have evolved a lot in the last few days.

First off, I was long convinced that Romney's problem was simple religious bigotry. I still think that's a factor, but I think the larger factor is his long record of issue apostasy.

Next, and this is hardly a unique thought: This Newt spike isn't the ephemeral thing that the Trump-Bachmann-Perry-Cain spikes were. That's because the Knewt is Known, probably better known among the GOP base than any other live Republican who hasn't been on a national ticket. They're not in for a big surprise like Cain=Horndog or Perry=Dumber Than A Box Of Rocks. The big picture is Contract With America and Three Wives.

Once we get to a general election, of course, the book of Quotations From Chairman Newt will be full of surprises for weak voting independents. But the GOP base doesn't care about that, because to them it's better than Romney.

There may -- MAY -- still be time for a Santorum spike, but only if the social conservatives go there en masse in the next... week or so. It's starting to feel like this Newt thing is for real, and I for one am looking forward to it.

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