Friday, March 16, 2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 7, Iowa House District 13 & 14

Senate District 7
Registration: D 13202, R 9887, N 12311, total 35446, D +3315
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City; holdover seat

It's an all-freshman delegation in the core Sioux City districts, where five legislators retired in 2010.

Republican Rick Bertrand lost a close `08 House race to Democrat Roger Wendt. He switched to the Senate race when Democrat Steve Warnstadt retired in 2010, and beat Democratic activist Rick Mullin by just 222 votes.

The new district changes little: a slight line shift on the south, picking up two precincts and a rural township added on the east, but the party balance stays almost identical.

Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he holds over till 2014 and gets the lower turnout gubernatorial year, and Woodbury is historically a low turnout county.

Campaign finance report: Team Bertrand

House District 13
Registration: D 6366, R 5324, N 6313, total 18030, D +1042
Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City.

The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts -- east, west, and south -- as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's, drawing him into Hall's district. So it was a My District Just Not My House thing, but the open House 14 is the more Democratic seat. Taylor must figure the numbers favor him in 13; Hall must figure the turf favors him. The result: House 13 will be the only two-incumbent general election House matchup in the state.

Both legislators won by similar, 600ish vote margins in 2010. Taylor also looked like a winner for a few hours on Election Night 2008, until absentees put him 280 votes short of Wes Whitead in old House District 2. He came back to take the seat in 2010 when Whitead retired.

Hall beat Republican Cate Bryan when Democrat Roger Wendt retired in ill health (he passed away soon after).

Taylor for Iowa House showed $22,743 in the bank on January 19; Hall for Iowa reported $23,841. So, evenly matched on seniority, evenly matched on victory margin, and evenly matched on money. Turf and party give the edge to Hall, but both teams will throw a lot at this race.

House District 14
Registration: D 6836, R 4563, N 5998, total 17416, D +2273
No Incumbent

In the open seat, Democrat David Dawson, Taylor's 2010 opponent, announced early. Dawson for Iowa House had $4575 left in the tank after that run and has increased it to $10,682. In February banker Greg Grupp announced for the Republicans. Dawson has the party edge and residual name ID in a district that hasn't changed much, except of course for losing its incumbent.

Original post 5/03/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

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