The preview never did get done so let's just jump straight to the postmortem.
general, incumbents won their seats and ideologues won the open seats.
Surprised that only one of the dozen House Republicans with a primary,
Erik Helland, lost. Ideology was a factor, but I think the dustup over
Helland offering opponent Jake Highfill a job in exchange for dropping
out was a bigger factor.
So how does all this affect Democratic chances in the fall?
aside blowouts, expected primary outcomes, races between two solid
candidates, and uncontested or safe seats on both sides, here's how I
see the primary results rippling into the general election.
Congressional District: In the days before Varnum-Brien, the typicaan
judicial retention victory margin was about 80 percent to 20. 20 percent
of people just automatically vote No. And that was Loebsack's margin
ove Joe Seng, 81 to 19, putting to lie the imagined "weakness" of the
three term congressman in his new counties. Here in his new home, the
People's Republic, Loebsack won 91 to 9.
Senate District 4:
Teapartyish Dennis Guth defeated former Senator Jim "Back In" Black. Bob
Jennings looks like the kind of Democrat who can win on rural turf.
District 6: Queer-bashing buffoon Mark Segebart beat Terry Branstad's
recruit, Carroll mayor Adam Schweers. Democrat Mary Bruner is a strong
candidate with family connections to Mike Gronstal.
District 36: Marshalltown area Republicans chose a two-time state House
loser, Jane Jech, over a former state senator who nearly got elected to
Congress, Larry McKibben. Freshman Democrat Steve Sodders can breathe a
Senate District 46: Shawn Hamerlinck's defeat of
co-incumbent Jim Hahn puts the friends and neighbors effect into play
for November, as Scott-based Hamerlinck faces Democrat Chris Brase of
Muscatine, which was Hahn's base.
House District 30:
Hard-right Jim Carley beat Carol Miller in the race to replace Kim
Pearson, and Democrat Joe Riding has won city-wide in Altoona. Caveat:
House District 73: David Johnson, frankly, was
running a weak campaign before Solon school board member Dick Schwab was
recruited, and this R held D leaning seat is a must win for both sides.
Johnson carried his Cedar County turf, sure. But other than a couple of
die-hard Schwab haters (who are in Johnson County anyway) the support
Senate District 22: I
really though Jeff Mullen was going to knock off Pat Ward. Desmund
Adams is a great Democratic candidate, but this is the seventh or eighth
most Republican seat in the state. For all his hard work, Adams will
have a tougher time against Ward.
House District 50: Pat Grassley
beats Annette Sweeney in the lone two incumbent House race. It's not
about this seat, as no Democrat is running. But it would have been
advantageous if Grandson Grassley's career had been derailed before he
turns 30 next year and becomes eligible to run for the U.S. Senate in
House District 72: Highly touted tribal official Christina
Blackcloud-Garcia was a surprise loser to Nathan Wrage in this
Tama-centric district, the open Lance Horbach seat. On paper he looks
like a weaker contender against Republican Dean Fisher, and I'm not sure
what happened here.
House District 34: Republican Patty Branco
appears sane, which is more than can be said for Dave Leach, who likes
to defend doctor murderers. So she might get a couple extra points in
her inevitable loss to Democrat Bruce Hunter.