Friday, August 17, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 15, Iowa House District 29 & 30

Senate District 15
Registration: D 14151, R 12395, N 11873, total 38449, D +1756
Incumbent: Dennis Black, D-Grinnell; holdover seat

Black holds over till 2014 in a half Jasper, half Polk seat that changes little. This is one of the two Senate districts that's split between congressional districts, because 4 congressional districts equals 25 House districts and 12 1/2 Senate seats. Newton-based House 29 is in the 2nd CD and Altoona-centric House 30 is in the 3rd.

House District 29
Registration: D 7742, R 5545, N 5962, total 19261, D +2197
Incumbent: Dan Kelley, D-Newton

Kelley stepped into the 2010 race late when incumbent Paul Bell died. Bell won his last term with 61%. Kelley beat the same opponent, Gabe Swersie, who was in the race before Bell's death, by a much closer 274 votes.

Swersie is making his third try this year, but doesn't look like a high priority despite the close race last time. Changes in the lines net Kelley about 1000 more Democrats. That and a term under his belt should help in 2012.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Swersie Campaign Fund, Dan Kelley for State Representative Kelley raised $2,280.00  after the primary but spent more, $3,136.76, leaving $268 in the bank. Swersie has $1,502.44 on hand, but has only raised 50 bucks since the primary.

House District 30
Registration: D 6409, R 6850, N 5911, total 19188, R +441
Open Seat: Kim Pearson, R-Pleasant Hill, retiring

Well, that was interesting. Kim Pearson may be leaving the Legislature, but I'm sure she'll be around one way or another.

Republican chances in this seat are probably improved by both Pearson's retirement after one wild and wooly term, and by the changes around the edge of the district lines. The district pulls all the way into Polk County, losing its piece of Jasper. It gains some townships north of Bondurant and over to Elkhart and, to the south, picks up the Polk County part of Carlisle. This gets rid of more than 1100 Democrats, turning a the Democratic leaning district long held by conservaDem Geri Huser into a swing seat. It's number 53 most Democratic, so it's one of the key seats for House control.

Jim Carley, founder of the tea-partyish Save Our American Republic (SOAR) announced well before Pearson made her retirement official, but it almost immediately became clear that she had recruited her own successor. Carley overwhelmed Carol Miller in the primary, 73-27%.

But Democrats have a solid contender in Joe Riding, an Altoona city council member who got in before Pearson got out. Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf course, not a bad fit for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here. As Mitt would say, they're not the right height.)

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Joe Riding 2012, Carley for Iowa Riding started raising early and has $10,759.50 on hand. Carley has $981.58 on hand and $1000 in loans out, so, nothing.

Senate District 15, House District 29 & 30: District of the Day 1 - 5/13/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

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