If Warren joined the race, she would not win, but she would till the ground, putting grit and the smell of earth in the contest. She would energize the Democratic Party’s liberal base, which would then stir up other Democrats who seek to moderate or contain that group. Warren would challenge the Democratic Party on issues like corporate power, income inequality, and entitlements. She would be a long shot and she would have nothing to lose—which means she could keep talking about those ideas out loud.Why She Shouldn't:
If you are a Clinton Democrat—which based on that polling is a redundancy—it’s hard to see how a tough competitor who might weaken your candidate would be a welcome thing. But without a get-in-shape primary, would Clinton be ready for the close punches of the general election? Her book tour suggests she’s rusty. A Democratic coronation would start the general election attacks early, without the benefit of a clear GOP opponent she could counterattack.
Warren 2016 is a fantasy. She has repeatedly given flat denials, including a pledge to serve out her six-year term, and most recently telling the Boston Globe “I am not running for president. Do you want to put an exclamation point at the end of that?” Even if Warren privately keeps the door open a crack in her mind, if she has a hard head she’ll leave the symbolic, quixotic primary challenge to the likes of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Polling data and anecdotal reporting suggest Hillary Clinton’s base of support in the Democratic Party is broader and deeper than ever, with bitter opponents from 2008 turned into “Ready for Hillary” foot soldiers. Any 2016 drama will likely be over faster than you can say “Wesley Clark.”Why It Doesn't Matter:
1. "Clinton is insanely popular among Democrats, now more than ever... That's higher than any conceivable Democratic challenger, and it doesn't even factor in the big advantage she has in resources and experience."Who Else Might: Note that Martin O'Malley will be back in Iowa next week. He's headlining a fundraiser for Johnson County's own Kevin Kinney, state senate candidate in open Senate 39. Details: Saturday, July 26 at Rocky O'Brien's Pub, 720 Pacha Parkway in North Liberty. (O'Malley for Kinney at O'Brien's? Pat Murphy should get in on this.) Suggested donations start at $25.
2. "Clinton doesn't have the kind of glaring vulnerability with Democrats she did last time around because of her vote in favor of the Iraq War."
3. "Clinton's strength in 2008 was always exaggerated by hubristic political consultants and the legions of journalistic lemmings who accepted their claims uncritically."