The @JohnsonCOIAGOP having their own mock election. I don't see a jar to #voteforBatman pic.twitter.com/rEGQEXboVZ
— John Deeth (@johndeeth) July 28, 2015
One of my jobs as Caucus Coordinator for the Johnson County Democrats is keeping in touch with the other team on rooms and arrangements and logistics.So with that in mind I spent last evening at the Johnson County Republican Central Committee meeting. I was wearing my Democrat hat - literally - not my beret. But in between some discussion of caucus sites, I did find a few items worth noting.
The bulk of the meeting was a series of updates from seven presidential campaigns - namely Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Paul, Perry, Rubio, and Santorum.
But most interesting to me was some followup from the county fair. I'm still mourning Batman's fall into second place in the auditor's office mock election at the hands of the Hillary Clinton-Wonder Woman coalition, so to ease my pain I crunched another series of meaningless numbers.
(Carly Fiorina supporters declined to state whether they, too, had backed Wonder Woman.)
The office had competition from a second mock election one building over, as Republicans offered a Popcorn Poll: drop a kernel in the jar to vote. And they actually more than doubled the auditor's GOP turnout, 1099 to 467. (TOTAL auditor turnout was 1303, counting Democrats and kids who voted just for superheroes and skipped president.)
There were some differences, of course: the Republican poll may have drawn a more partisan crowd being located at the party booth instead of in the county government exhibit. The Republicans had a simpler voting process and I'm not sure what controls they had if any on multiple voting. The auditor's office had a scout's honor sign in sheet saying "I promise to vote only once." And seriously, anyone who wants to game a mock election at a county fair really needs to get a life.
The two polls produced the same two winners: Donald Trump in first and Scott Walker in second. And Chris Christie and George Pataki were at the bottom of both.
But in between, there were some interesting differences.
Below, we have listed first the Republican results, followed by the auditor's totals. Then I list the rank difference and percentage difference between the two polls for each candidate. Note that "Uncommitted" was not a Republican popcorn poll option, so I recalculated the percentages in the auditor's mock election to factor out Uncommitted.
| Rank | GOP Popcorn Poll | Votes | % | Rank vs Auditor | % |
| 1 | Donald Trump | 189 | 17.2% | same | -2.8% |
| 2 | Scott Walker | 131 | 11.9% | same | 0.4% |
| 3 | Bobby Jindal | 125 | 11.4% | +1 | 2.6% |
| 4 | Ben Carson | 100 | 9.1% | +1 | 1.0% |
| 5 | Mike Huckabee | 90 | 8.2% | +3 | 3.4% |
| 6 | Rand Paul | 80 | 7.3% | +3 | 2.4% |
| 7 | Ted Cruz | 71 | 6.5% | -1 | -0.2% |
| 8 | Carly Fiorina | 60 | 5.5% | -1 | 0.6% |
| 9 | Jeb Bush | 54 | 4.9% | -6 | -5.5% |
| 10 | John Kasich | 43 | 3.9% | +2 | 0.7% |
| 11 | Rick Perry | 40 | 3.6% | +2 | 0.4% |
| 12 | Marco Rubio | 37 | 3.4% | -2 | -0.8% |
| 13 | Rick Santorum | 27 | 2.5% | +1 | -0.3% |
| 14 | Lindsey Graham | 25 | 2.3% | -3 | -1.2% |
| 15 | George Pataki | 14 | 1.3% | -1 | 0.6% |
| 16 | Chris Christie | 13 | 1.2% | +1 | -1.4% |
| Total GOP Vote | 1099 | ||||
| Rank | Auditor's Mock Election | Votes | % (of candidate votes only) | Rank vs GOP | % |
| 1 | Donald Trump | 87 | 20.0% | same | 2.8% |
| 2 | Scott Walker | 50 | 11.5% | same | -0.4% |
| 3 | Jeb Bush | 45 | 10.4% | +6 | 5.5% |
| 4 | Bobby Jindal | 38 | 8.8% | -1 | -2.6% |
| 5 | Ben Carson | 35 | 8.1% | -1 | -1.0% |
| 6 | Ted Cruz | 29 | 6.7% | +1 | 0.2% |
| 7 | Carly Fiorina | 21 | 4.8% | +1 | -0.6% |
| 8 | Mike Huckabee | 21 | 4.8% | -3 | -3.4% |
| 9 | Rand Paul | 21 | 4.8% | -3 | -2.4% |
| 10 | Marco Rubio | 18 | 4.1% | +2 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Lindsey Graham | 15 | 3.5% | +3 | 1.2% |
| 12 | John Kasich | 14 | 3.2% | -2 | -0.7% |
| 13 | Rick Perry | 14 | 3.2% | -2 | -0.4% |
| 14 | Rick Santorum | 12 | 2.8% | -1 | 0.3% |
| 15 | Chris Christie | 11 | 2.5% | +1 | -0.6% |
| 16 | George Pataki | 3 | 0.7% | -1 | 1.4% |
| 434 | |||||
| Uncommitted Rep. | 33 | 7.1% | of total auditor vote | ||
| Total Auditor Vote | 467 |
From this it looks like Trump is noticeably weaker in the presumably more GOP-identified Popcorn Poll - though still strong enough for first. Huckabee, Jindal, and Paul are running noticably stronger...
But I'm burying the lede here. Jeb Bush is getting less than half the support at the Republican Party booth than he did at the auditor's booth. In fact, I almost didn't post this because I though I messed up my notes and left off a "1" in front of Bush's 54 votes - but that would have put him ahead of Walker and we specifically discussed that the two polls had the same two leaders.
None of these polls are scientific of course. Everyone knows that the only vote that REALLY matters is the Hamburg Inn Coffee Bean Caucus.
No comments:
Post a Comment