Senate District 25
Registration: D 8580, R 16159, N 14131, total 38904, R +7579
Incumbent: Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock; holdover seat
More
of this turf was Bacon's than Dix's, yet it was the ambitious Dix who
got to stay while Bacon went Senate to House. Half the district is
Hardin and Grundy counties, which neither had before.
Dix defeated Bill Heckroth in 2010 to make a comeback after a four year hiatus caused by a congressional primary loss.
House District 49
Registration: D 4554, R 7014, N 7388, total 18974, R +2460
Incumbent: Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada
This
remains a Nevada and rural Story based district, with a couple
townships shifting and Story City staying. Deyoe sheds southeast
Hamilton County and gets the southern half of Hardin, with little impact
on the party balance.
Deyoe was a late starting candidate in
2006, and the only Republican winner in the game of musical chairs that
started with Stu Iverson dropping out of his race after being deposed as
Senate leader. He won a solid 62% in 2010 against 2006 congressional
candidate Selden Spencer.
In a battle of Some Dudes, Democrat Kevin Ericson of Maxwell was a 78-22% primary winner over Garland Bridges of Eldora.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Deyoe for House, Ericson for progress
Deyoe has a healthy $21,524.68 on hand and raised $5570 in the
post-primary report. Ericson has $1,259.83 and raised just $495,
indicating this one's on nobody's to-watch list.
House District 50
Registration: D 4026, R 9145, N 6743, total 19930, R +5119
Incumbent: Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford, unopposed
The
clash of the titans and surrogate war between Grandpa Grassley and
rainmaker Bruce Rastetter wasn't as close as we expected. Grassley won
with a relatively big margin, 61-39%, disappointing us Democrats who
would like to have seen the future US Senate successor derailed. Look
for Sweeney to show up somewhere in the Branstad administration soon.
This is the ninth most Republican seat in the state, so expect another
spirited primary and maybe a Sweeney comeback when it opens up in 2016. I keep saying this stuff and
no one ever denies it.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Pat Grassley Pat raised $48,716.18 in the June-July period. Grandpa helped some. Look for Pat to share some and travel a bit to help other folks out and collect some chits for later.
Senate District 25, House District 49 & 50: District of the Day 1 - 5/27/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Iowa House District 50. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa House District 50. Show all posts
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 25, Iowa House District 49 & 50
Senate District 25
Registration: D 9633, R 16456, N 16536, total 42659, R +6823
Incumbent: Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock; holdover seat (Rob Bacon, R-Maxwell, moving and running in House 48)
Bill Dix, an 800 pound gorilla with higher ambitions, is the one who stays, even though more of this turf was Bacon's. Half the district is Hardin and Grundy counties, which neither had before.
Dix and Bacon both knocked off Democratic incumbents in 2010, when their districts didn't even border each other. Dix, who defeated Bill Heckroth, keeps only part of Butler County: Aplington, Parkersburg, New Hartford and his Shell Rock home. He used to go east to Bremer, most of Fayette, and north rural Black Hawk. A lot of that turf to the east is in new Senate 32, now a swingy district held by Democrat Brian Schoenjahn.
Dix gave up his House seat to run Congress in 2006 when Jim Nussle retired, but lost in the primary. Unfortunately for Dix, this area is NOT in Bruce Braley's district; it's in that little easternmost extension of Steve King's.
Campaign finance reports: Friends for Dix
House District 49
Registration: D 5104, R 7495, N 8541, total 21159, R +2391
Incumbent: Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada; contested Democratic primary
Deyoe was a late starting candidate in 2006, and the only Republican winner in the game of musical chairs that started with Stu Iverson dropping out of his race after being deposed as Senate leader. He won a solid 62% in 2010 against 2006 congressional candidate Selden Spencer (the one the entire Iowa lefty blogosphere kept talking up while ignoring Dave Loebsack).
This year two Democrats are running: Kevin Ericson of Maxwell and Garland Bridges of Eldora.
Deyoe is the only legislator in the neighborhood who got lucky in redistricting. This remains a Nevada and rural Story based district, with a couple townships shifting and Story City staying. He sheds southeast Hamilton County and gets the southern half of Hardin, with little impact on the party balance.
Campaign finance reports: Deyoe for House
House District 50
Registration: D 4529, R 8961, N 7995, total 21500, R +4432
Incumbents: Annette Sweeney, R-Alden and Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford.
Every redistricting election cycle has one pairup that just doesn't get worked out. In 1992 it was Bill Brand and Jane Svoboda; ten years ago it was Rick Larkin and Phil Wise. This time, it's Annette Sweeney and Pat Grassley.
Since the day Pat Grassley announced for the legislature in 2006, when Bill Dix left to run for Congress, I've been saying The Masterplan is for him to take over for Grandpa in 2016. No one ever denies this. If he comes out of this map alive, he turns the magic Senator age of 30 during the next term, in 2013. He shared the ballot with Grandpa for the first time in 2010, and no Democrat was up for that challenge.
Sweeney was first elected in 2008. Democrat Tim Hoy had given Polly Granzow a scare in 2006, and Granzow retired. Hoy tried again but Sweeney won by 1000 votes, then scored a two to one win in 2010.
The old Sweeney and Grassley districts met at a corner. Grassley had all of Butler, then went east into Bremer to pick up Waverly. Sweeney's old 44th district had all of Hardin (this map has just the north half), then went south to pick up rural Marshall. Grundy County is new to both.
This is also playing out as a proxy war. Grandpa is all in for grandson, bringing Rick Perry in for a fund raiser right when the Texan was at the peak of his ill-fated run. GOP heavy hitter Bruce Rastetter is a longtime friend of Sweeney's.
Sweeney for State House had $30,392 cash on hand January 19, to Citizens for Pat Grassley's $39,798.
Whoever wins gets a more Republican district than they had before, and no Democrats are anywhere on the radar.
Original post 5/27/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 9633, R 16456, N 16536, total 42659, R +6823
Incumbent: Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock; holdover seat (Rob Bacon, R-Maxwell, moving and running in House 48)
Bill Dix, an 800 pound gorilla with higher ambitions, is the one who stays, even though more of this turf was Bacon's. Half the district is Hardin and Grundy counties, which neither had before.
Dix and Bacon both knocked off Democratic incumbents in 2010, when their districts didn't even border each other. Dix, who defeated Bill Heckroth, keeps only part of Butler County: Aplington, Parkersburg, New Hartford and his Shell Rock home. He used to go east to Bremer, most of Fayette, and north rural Black Hawk. A lot of that turf to the east is in new Senate 32, now a swingy district held by Democrat Brian Schoenjahn.
Dix gave up his House seat to run Congress in 2006 when Jim Nussle retired, but lost in the primary. Unfortunately for Dix, this area is NOT in Bruce Braley's district; it's in that little easternmost extension of Steve King's.
Campaign finance reports: Friends for Dix
House District 49
Registration: D 5104, R 7495, N 8541, total 21159, R +2391
Incumbent: Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada; contested Democratic primary
Deyoe was a late starting candidate in 2006, and the only Republican winner in the game of musical chairs that started with Stu Iverson dropping out of his race after being deposed as Senate leader. He won a solid 62% in 2010 against 2006 congressional candidate Selden Spencer (the one the entire Iowa lefty blogosphere kept talking up while ignoring Dave Loebsack).
This year two Democrats are running: Kevin Ericson of Maxwell and Garland Bridges of Eldora.
Deyoe is the only legislator in the neighborhood who got lucky in redistricting. This remains a Nevada and rural Story based district, with a couple townships shifting and Story City staying. He sheds southeast Hamilton County and gets the southern half of Hardin, with little impact on the party balance.
Campaign finance reports: Deyoe for House
House District 50
Registration: D 4529, R 8961, N 7995, total 21500, R +4432
Incumbents: Annette Sweeney, R-Alden and Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford.
Every redistricting election cycle has one pairup that just doesn't get worked out. In 1992 it was Bill Brand and Jane Svoboda; ten years ago it was Rick Larkin and Phil Wise. This time, it's Annette Sweeney and Pat Grassley.
Since the day Pat Grassley announced for the legislature in 2006, when Bill Dix left to run for Congress, I've been saying The Masterplan is for him to take over for Grandpa in 2016. No one ever denies this. If he comes out of this map alive, he turns the magic Senator age of 30 during the next term, in 2013. He shared the ballot with Grandpa for the first time in 2010, and no Democrat was up for that challenge.
Sweeney was first elected in 2008. Democrat Tim Hoy had given Polly Granzow a scare in 2006, and Granzow retired. Hoy tried again but Sweeney won by 1000 votes, then scored a two to one win in 2010.
The old Sweeney and Grassley districts met at a corner. Grassley had all of Butler, then went east into Bremer to pick up Waverly. Sweeney's old 44th district had all of Hardin (this map has just the north half), then went south to pick up rural Marshall. Grundy County is new to both.
This is also playing out as a proxy war. Grandpa is all in for grandson, bringing Rick Perry in for a fund raiser right when the Texan was at the peak of his ill-fated run. GOP heavy hitter Bruce Rastetter is a longtime friend of Sweeney's.
Sweeney for State House had $30,392 cash on hand January 19, to Citizens for Pat Grassley's $39,798.
Whoever wins gets a more Republican district than they had before, and no Democrats are anywhere on the radar.
Original post 5/27/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Grassley All In For Grandson
Grassley All In For Grandson
From a reader, this flyer is of great interest. Note location:
One would think, or hope, that RPI might make the HQ available if Annette Sweeney's grandpa wants to host an event, but the key here is: Grandpa Grassley is all in for what should be the hottest legislative primary since Dave Mulder knocked off Ken Veenstra in 2004.
Cityview's Civic Skinny looked at this race last week and noted: "Chuck Grassley, who is worth somewhere between $2 million and $6 million, has never contributed anything to his grandson — or, for that matter, to any other candidate for state office in recent years."
But making things more interesting, it turns out Sweeney has friends in high places too: "(Bruce) Rastetter and Sweeney have known each other since they were young. He gave Sweeney $500 last September and another $500 when she ran two years earlier."
Sounds like an intense surrogate war, and Terry Branstad will have to be really crafty if he wants to stay out of it...
For all the fans of yesterday morning's post, here's a firsthand account of CCI's tantrum in Carroll.
From a reader, this flyer is of great interest. Note location:
Please join REPRESENTATIVE PAT GRASSLEYNot so remarkable except, as anyone who reads this blog knows, Grassley the Younger is one of two GOP incumbents in House District 50, and both are staying and running.
Thursday, September 1st
from 4:30PM–6:00PM
for a reception with special guest U.S. SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY
$1000 Host
$500 Sponsor
$250 Partner
$100 Supporter
Make Checks Payable to:
Citizens for Pat Grassley
30601 Deer Trail Drive
New Hartford, IA 50660
Where:
Republican Party of Iowa
621 East 9th Street
Des Moines, IA
One would think, or hope, that RPI might make the HQ available if Annette Sweeney's grandpa wants to host an event, but the key here is: Grandpa Grassley is all in for what should be the hottest legislative primary since Dave Mulder knocked off Ken Veenstra in 2004.
Cityview's Civic Skinny looked at this race last week and noted: "Chuck Grassley, who is worth somewhere between $2 million and $6 million, has never contributed anything to his grandson — or, for that matter, to any other candidate for state office in recent years."
But making things more interesting, it turns out Sweeney has friends in high places too: "(Bruce) Rastetter and Sweeney have known each other since they were young. He gave Sweeney $500 last September and another $500 when she ran two years earlier."
Sounds like an intense surrogate war, and Terry Branstad will have to be really crafty if he wants to stay out of it...
For all the fans of yesterday morning's post, here's a firsthand account of CCI's tantrum in Carroll.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
One Retirement, One Train Wreck
Districts Revisited: One Retirement, One Train Wreck
With the quadruple-overtime legislative session finally over, we're seeing the campaign announcement and retirement fallout from The Map. Two updates from districts where two Republicans are paired up: one smooth retirement and one train-wreck primary.
The fratricidal face-off that looked like a map-killer on Map Day seems like it will actually happen. Annette Sweeney has announced for re-election in House District 50. She's paired up with our next United States Senator, Pat Grassley, who also announced for the same seat last month.
Is this a game of chicken, with one of them veering off at the last minute? Or will they actually settle this at the polls? There's usually one where one of the parties can't work it out: Bill Brand vs. Jane Svoboda in 1992, Rick Larkin and Phil Wise in 2002.
Republicans have settled things more smoothly in House District 79. Oskaloosa freshman Guy Vander Linden is running, and Jim Van Engelenhoeven of Pella is retiring after seven terms.
Both these seats are solidly Republican. There is some good news for Dems, though: Vander Linden, who knocked off Eric Palmer last year in a swing district that went north to Grinnell, is staying with the House race instead of challenging a very vulnerable Democratic senator, Tom Rielly.
With the quadruple-overtime legislative session finally over, we're seeing the campaign announcement and retirement fallout from The Map. Two updates from districts where two Republicans are paired up: one smooth retirement and one train-wreck primary.
The fratricidal face-off that looked like a map-killer on Map Day seems like it will actually happen. Annette Sweeney has announced for re-election in House District 50. She's paired up with our next United States Senator, Pat Grassley, who also announced for the same seat last month.
Is this a game of chicken, with one of them veering off at the last minute? Or will they actually settle this at the polls? There's usually one where one of the parties can't work it out: Bill Brand vs. Jane Svoboda in 1992, Rick Larkin and Phil Wise in 2002.
Republicans have settled things more smoothly in House District 79. Oskaloosa freshman Guy Vander Linden is running, and Jim Van Engelenhoeven of Pella is retiring after seven terms.
Both these seats are solidly Republican. There is some good news for Dems, though: Vander Linden, who knocked off Eric Palmer last year in a swing district that went north to Grinnell, is staying with the House race instead of challenging a very vulnerable Democratic senator, Tom Rielly.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Clinton Mayor Rodger Holm May Run For Senate District 49
Schrödinger's Seat in Clinton
Also: Pat Grassley announces in House 50
According to Clinton Herald reports, mayor Rodger Holm may or may not be running for a state senate seat that may or may not be on the ballot next year.
Daily Kos Elections (formerly Swing State Project), the same people who gave us the useful term Some Dude, calls this circumstance "Schrödinger's Seat":
Tod Bowman (D-Maquoketa) beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13 which went north from Clinton into Jackson and Dubuque counties. In the new map, Bowman, who lives in Jackson County, is paired up with Epworth Democrat Tom Hancock.
Since Bowman was elected to a four year term in a district that overlaps with new Senate 49, he can move south into this district and hold over until 2014. But if Hancock retires, Bowman can hold over, in a more Democratic district and without moving, and Senate 49 will be on the ballot.
Clear as mud? So are Holm's plans. On Monday (6/13) Holm, a registered Republican, announced he was not seeking re-election as mayor. But by Friday (6/17) he was wavering on the decision to step down as mayor:
already announced his candidacy.
And the decisions that matter here won't even be made in Clinton; they'll be made in Maquoketa and Epworth.
In other redistricting-related news, the next move in the GOP game of chicken in House District 50 as Pat Grassley announces for re-election there. As everyone still reading this blog knows, Grandson is paired up with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney, and neither has a good move to make. Ball's in your court, Sweeney; do we see a fratricidal primary here?
And speaking of Some Dude, which I was a few paragraphs ago, we have an excellent example in the Register: "A 24-year-old criminal justice student from Des Moines’ south side who announced today that he plans to challenge an incumbent Democrat suspended his campaign after he discovered that he no longer lives in the district."
Also: Pat Grassley announces in House 50
According to Clinton Herald reports, mayor Rodger Holm may or may not be running for a state senate seat that may or may not be on the ballot next year.
Daily Kos Elections (formerly Swing State Project), the same people who gave us the useful term Some Dude, calls this circumstance "Schrödinger's Seat":
A district which has borders that, due to reapportionment and/or redistricting, are not yet known, but which candidates nonetheless are considering running for. Once the district lines are known, such candidates might find themselves in a very sweet spot - or they might find themselves without a district to run in.In this case we know what the lines of new Senate District 49 are: all of Clinton County and northern Scott County (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). What we don't know is if there will be an election next year.
Tod Bowman (D-Maquoketa) beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13 which went north from Clinton into Jackson and Dubuque counties. In the new map, Bowman, who lives in Jackson County, is paired up with Epworth Democrat Tom Hancock.
Since Bowman was elected to a four year term in a district that overlaps with new Senate 49, he can move south into this district and hold over until 2014. But if Hancock retires, Bowman can hold over, in a more Democratic district and without moving, and Senate 49 will be on the ballot.
Clear as mud? So are Holm's plans. On Monday (6/13) Holm, a registered Republican, announced he was not seeking re-election as mayor. But by Friday (6/17) he was wavering on the decision to step down as mayor:
“My decision is still the same,” Holm said, reiterating that he would likely not run for re-election, “but I’ve had so many people contact me about reconsidering. That makes me rethink things a little bit.”Two more twists: his predecessor as mayor LaMetta Wynn (who ran for and lost the same senate seat in 2006) wants to move back into City Hall. And Naeve has
State re-districting has created a new senate seat, a position that intrigues Holm. He had previously announced that if he decided to pursue the senate seat, he would not seek re-election as campaigning would be too great a distraction from his mayoral duties. However, Holm said that he hadn’t completely ruled out seeking a second term as mayor.
already announced his candidacy.
And the decisions that matter here won't even be made in Clinton; they'll be made in Maquoketa and Epworth.
In other redistricting-related news, the next move in the GOP game of chicken in House District 50 as Pat Grassley announces for re-election there. As everyone still reading this blog knows, Grandson is paired up with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney, and neither has a good move to make. Ball's in your court, Sweeney; do we see a fratricidal primary here?
And speaking of Some Dude, which I was a few paragraphs ago, we have an excellent example in the Register: "A 24-year-old criminal justice student from Des Moines’ south side who announced today that he plans to challenge an incumbent Democrat suspended his campaign after he discovered that he no longer lives in the district."
Friday, May 27, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 25, House Districts 49 and 50
District of the Day: Senate District 25, House Districts 49 and 50
Two pair makes for a full House, and Senate, in the worst redistricting headache for Republicans.
Senate District 25
Registration: D 9411, R 15497, N 15165, total 40105, R+ 6086
Incumbents: Bill Dix, R-Shell Rockand Rob Bacon, R-Maxwell
UPDATE September 9: Bacon moving to House 48, where he'll have a rematch with Olive.
Bill Dix and Rob Bacon both knocked off Democratic incumbents in 2010, when their districts didn't even border each other. Both live at the very edge of this district. If one backs down, the other holds over in a solidly Republican seat. Neither has a good option to move.
Bacon, who vanquished Landslide Rich Olive, looks like he keeps the larger home turf, the non-Ames part of Story County. The old Bacon district went north and west: Hamilton, Wright, and a little of Webster, all of which he loses. His Maxwell home is maybe a couple miles north of Democrat Dennis Black's swingy district, but that has no overlap with Bacon's old seat which had the same south line. A couple of his old townships overlap with Herman Quirmbach, but that's a good Democratic district.
Dix, who defeated Bill Heckroth, keeps only part of Butler County: Aplington, Parkersburg, New Hartford and his Shell Rock home. He used to go east to Bremer, most of Fayette, and north rural Black Hawk. A lot of that turf to the east is in new Senate 32, now a swingy district held by Democrat Brian Schoenjahn.
Dix gave up his House seat to run Congress in 2006 when Jim Nussle retired, but lost in the primary. Unfortunately for Dix, this area is NOT in Bruce Braley's district; it's in that little easternmost extension of Steve King's.
Bacon and Dix could just duke it out in a primary on relatively neutral ground. Half the district is Hardin and Grundy counties, which neither had before.
House District 49
Registration: D 4999, R 6948, N 7788, total 19755, R+ 1949
Incumbent: Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada
Deyoe was a late starting candidate in 2006, and the only Republican winner in the game of musical chairs that started with Stew Iverson dropping out of his race after being deposed as Senate leader. He won a solid 62% in 2010 against 2006 congressional candidate Selden Spencer (the one the entire Iowa lefty blogosphere kept talking up while ignoring Dave Loebsack).
Deyoe is also the only legislator in the neighborhood who gets lucky in redistricting. This remains a Nevada and rural Story based district, with a couple townships shifting and Story City staying. He sheds southeast Hamilton County and gets the southern half of Hardin, with little impact on the party balance.
House District 50
Registration: D 4412, R 8549, N 7377, total 20350, R+ 4137
Incumbents: Annette Sweeney, R-Alden and Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford.
UPDATE July 7: Both have now announced in this district.
In this corner, a rising star of the legislature. In that corner, a U.S. Senator in waiting. This is one of the two seats, along with the triple-up in House 8, that nearly put the whole Map at risk. And while we have some ideas what could happen in 8, there's no clue yet as to how this one gets worked out.
Since the day Pat Grassley announced for the legislature in 2006, when Bill Dix left to run for Congress, I've been saying The Masterplan is for him to take over for Grandpa in 2016. No one ever denies this. If he comes out of this map alive, he turns the magic Senator age of 30 during the next term, in 2013. He shared the ballot with Grandpa for the first time last year, and no Democrat was up for that challenge.
Sweeney was first elected in 2008. Democrat Tim Hoy had given Polly Granzow a scare in 2006, and Granzow retired. Hoy tried again but Sweeney won by 1000 votes, then scored a two to one win in 2010. Sweeney carried the ball on the no videotaping of farms bill (taking matters into her own hands on one occasion).
The old Sweeney and Grassley districts met at a corner. Grassley had all of Butler, then went east into Bremer to pick up Waverly. Sweeney's old 44th district had all of Hardin (this map has just the north half), then went south to pick up rural Marshall. The 2001 mappers also looped the Wright-Franklin county line around the city of Dows to keep it together. Since precincts can't be divided between legislative districts, and since it was the only part of Franklin in old district 44, the Franklin County part of Dows was the smallest precinct in the state at 40 voters. This cycle, it doesn't seem like there's anything that small.
Whoever stays, or wins, gets a more Republican district than they had before. Grundy County is new to both. Both representatives are farmers, making moving more difficult than, say, buying a house in a different part of West Des Moines or Iowa City.
Grassley has definitively said he's not moving, though that doesn't stop Tyler Mills at Des Moines Free Press from speculating about a move into Waverly-based House 63. It's empty, but Bill Heckroth is on the comeback trail and has already announced.
Sweeney was one of the seven no votes on the map, saying districts were not compact enough and citing the split of Hardin County.
My prediction? Look for Terry Branstad or Bill Northey to offer Sweeney a job sometime around the filing deadline.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Two pair makes for a full House, and Senate, in the worst redistricting headache for Republicans.
Senate District 25
Registration: D 9411, R 15497, N 15165, total 40105, R+ 6086
Incumbents: Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock
UPDATE September 9: Bacon moving to House 48, where he'll have a rematch with Olive.
Bill Dix and Rob Bacon both knocked off Democratic incumbents in 2010, when their districts didn't even border each other. Both live at the very edge of this district. If one backs down, the other holds over in a solidly Republican seat. Neither has a good option to move.
Bacon, who vanquished Landslide Rich Olive, looks like he keeps the larger home turf, the non-Ames part of Story County. The old Bacon district went north and west: Hamilton, Wright, and a little of Webster, all of which he loses. His Maxwell home is maybe a couple miles north of Democrat Dennis Black's swingy district, but that has no overlap with Bacon's old seat which had the same south line. A couple of his old townships overlap with Herman Quirmbach, but that's a good Democratic district.
Dix, who defeated Bill Heckroth, keeps only part of Butler County: Aplington, Parkersburg, New Hartford and his Shell Rock home. He used to go east to Bremer, most of Fayette, and north rural Black Hawk. A lot of that turf to the east is in new Senate 32, now a swingy district held by Democrat Brian Schoenjahn.
Dix gave up his House seat to run Congress in 2006 when Jim Nussle retired, but lost in the primary. Unfortunately for Dix, this area is NOT in Bruce Braley's district; it's in that little easternmost extension of Steve King's.
Bacon and Dix could just duke it out in a primary on relatively neutral ground. Half the district is Hardin and Grundy counties, which neither had before.
House District 49
Registration: D 4999, R 6948, N 7788, total 19755, R+ 1949
Incumbent: Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada
Deyoe was a late starting candidate in 2006, and the only Republican winner in the game of musical chairs that started with Stew Iverson dropping out of his race after being deposed as Senate leader. He won a solid 62% in 2010 against 2006 congressional candidate Selden Spencer (the one the entire Iowa lefty blogosphere kept talking up while ignoring Dave Loebsack).
Deyoe is also the only legislator in the neighborhood who gets lucky in redistricting. This remains a Nevada and rural Story based district, with a couple townships shifting and Story City staying. He sheds southeast Hamilton County and gets the southern half of Hardin, with little impact on the party balance.
House District 50
Registration: D 4412, R 8549, N 7377, total 20350, R+ 4137
Incumbents: Annette Sweeney, R-Alden and Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford.
UPDATE July 7: Both have now announced in this district.
In this corner, a rising star of the legislature. In that corner, a U.S. Senator in waiting. This is one of the two seats, along with the triple-up in House 8, that nearly put the whole Map at risk. And while we have some ideas what could happen in 8, there's no clue yet as to how this one gets worked out.
Since the day Pat Grassley announced for the legislature in 2006, when Bill Dix left to run for Congress, I've been saying The Masterplan is for him to take over for Grandpa in 2016. No one ever denies this. If he comes out of this map alive, he turns the magic Senator age of 30 during the next term, in 2013. He shared the ballot with Grandpa for the first time last year, and no Democrat was up for that challenge.
Sweeney was first elected in 2008. Democrat Tim Hoy had given Polly Granzow a scare in 2006, and Granzow retired. Hoy tried again but Sweeney won by 1000 votes, then scored a two to one win in 2010. Sweeney carried the ball on the no videotaping of farms bill (taking matters into her own hands on one occasion).
The old Sweeney and Grassley districts met at a corner. Grassley had all of Butler, then went east into Bremer to pick up Waverly. Sweeney's old 44th district had all of Hardin (this map has just the north half), then went south to pick up rural Marshall. The 2001 mappers also looped the Wright-Franklin county line around the city of Dows to keep it together. Since precincts can't be divided between legislative districts, and since it was the only part of Franklin in old district 44, the Franklin County part of Dows was the smallest precinct in the state at 40 voters. This cycle, it doesn't seem like there's anything that small.
Whoever stays, or wins, gets a more Republican district than they had before. Grundy County is new to both. Both representatives are farmers, making moving more difficult than, say, buying a house in a different part of West Des Moines or Iowa City.
Grassley has definitively said he's not moving, though that doesn't stop Tyler Mills at Des Moines Free Press from speculating about a move into Waverly-based House 63. It's empty, but Bill Heckroth is on the comeback trail and has already announced.
Sweeney was one of the seven no votes on the map, saying districts were not compact enough and citing the split of Hardin County.
My prediction? Look for Terry Branstad or Bill Northey to offer Sweeney a job sometime around the filing deadline.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
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