District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 41, Iowa House District 81 & 82

Senate District 41
Registration: D 14188, R 11175, N 11453, total 36859, D +3013
Incumbent: Mark Chelgren, R-Ottumwa; holdover seat

Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year in 2010, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. The line changes cut out the latter two and send him east toward blue-trending Fairfield. Senator Chickenman will have a tough ride in 2014.

House District 81
Registration: D 8220, R 4397, N 5527, total 18154, D +3823
Incumbent: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa

The district Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in.
Republicans made a serious effort in 2010 with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win, probably the low point for this seat.

Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for Chelgren's fluke win. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue again.

Young Republican Blake Smith easily defeated former (`08) independent candidate Rick McClure in the primary, 75-25%.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Gaskill for State Representative, Smith for Iowa House Gaskill has $7,868.82 on hand to Smith's $1,106.10.

House District 82
Registration: D 5968, R 6778, N 5926, total 18705, R +810
Incumbent Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield

Fairfield was the center of the Iowa political universe in late summer 2009, when this seat opened up for a special election. Anti-marriage equality groups pumped huge amounts of out of state money into Fairfield, and Democrats responded with an all-out effort as well. Retired drivers ed teacher Curt Hanson prevailed by just 127 votes, and less than 50%, over Republican Steve Burgmeier. Two independent conservative candidates were in the race, and they drew more votes than the difference.

The rematch in the fall of 2010 was just the two of them. Despite the lack of Splitters!, the annus horriblis for Democrats and the fact that he was now just one of 100 races instead of the only game in town, Hanson increased his margin over Burgmeier to more than 1000 votes.

While the lines change, the party balance is about the same. The new district has all of Van Buren and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield, from Hanson's old seat, and only Davis from fellow Democrat Kurt Swaim's. The redistricting pair was resolved when Swaim retired.

Bloomfield's James Johnson lost to Swaim by just 76 votes in 2010. Campaign for Liberty activist Jeff Shipley of Fairfield, who ran for Iowa City council in 2009, filed for the primary but withdrew by the deadline.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Johnson for St Rep, Curt Hanson for State Representative The incumbent has the money edge with $7,043.30 on hand; Johnson has $1,609.54.

Senate District 41, House District 81 & 82: District of the Day 1 - 6/20/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 41, Iowa House District 81 & 82

Senate District 41
Registration: D 15692, R 12289, N 14038, total 42067, D +3403
Incumbent: Mark Chelgren, R-Ottumwa; holdover seat

Enjoy the ride, Chickenman; you won't be back in 2014.

Mark Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. Chelgren has cut an abrasive profile in his first session, but with Democrats in Senate control he's been noticed less that the House Krazy Kaucus of Pearson, Massie and Shaw.

The most Democratic Senate seat held by a Republican keeps a big Democratic edge. The district keeps Ottumwa and a slightly different portion of Wapello County; under the old lines within Wapello, Krieman was ahead by nearly 1000 votes. Davis County also stays in the district. But from there the district goes east, grabbing all of Van Buren and adding most of the population of blue-trending Jefferson County. The district line wraps around the east of Fairfield, bringing it into the district.

Fairfield was home base for Democratic Senator Becky Schmitz, who won in a district that also included Van Buren in 2006. Schmitz, who lost to Sandy Greiner in 2010, is reportedly interested in a comeback. If she can wait a cycle, this looks like excellent turf.

Campaign finance reports: Chelgren for Iowa Senate


House District 81
Registration: D 8937, R 4734, N 6336, total 20019, D +4203
Incumbent: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa

The district Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. Minor changes around the edges, of course. Instead of getting the townships south and west of the city, the district goes east to the county line, picking up Agency, Eldon, and the American Gothic house.

This seat was turbulent a decade ago; Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.

In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. She overwhelmingly won a bizarre 2010 primary over a former county supervisor (short version: the guy resigned, moved out of state, moved back soon after with no explanation). Republicans looked like there were making a serious effort last year with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win.

There were rumors of a primary challenge to Gaskill again, but they didn't materialize. The Republicans will have a primary between Rick McClure and Blake Smith. McClure challenged Gaskill as an independent in 2008.

Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for Chelgren's fluke win. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue again.

Campaign finance reports: Gaskill for State Representative

House District 82
Registration: D 6755, R 7555, N 7702, total 22048, R +800
Incumbent Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield (Kurt Swaim, D-Bloomfield, retiring)

When Democrat John Whitaker resigned to take a federal Department of Agriculture job in the summer of 2009, Fairfield became the center of statewide attention. Anti-marriage equality groups pumped huge amounts of out of state money into Fairfield, and Democrats responded with an all-out effort as well. Retired drivers ed teacher Curt Hanson prevailed by just 127 votes over Republican Steve Burgmeier. Two independent conservative candidates, representing the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea, were in the race, and they drew more votes than the difference.

The rematch in the fall of 2010 was just the two of them. Despite the lack of Splitters!, the annus horriblis for Democrats and the fact that he was now just one of 100 races instead of the only game in town, Hanson increased his margin over Burgmeier to more than 1000 votes.

So even though this turf leans Republican, Hanson seems to be in good shape. While the lines change, the party balance is about the same. The new district has all of Van Buren and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield, from Hanson's old seat, and only Davis from fellow Democrat Kurt Swaim's. The redistricting pair was resolved when Swaim retired.

Republicans have a primary. Bloomfield's James Johnson lost to Swaim by just 76 votes in 2010, and was last spotted on Team Bachmann. Campaign for Liberty activist Jeff Shipley of Fairfield ran for Iowa City council in 2009. Opposite ends of the district, and Fairfield has a strong libertarian streak.


Johnson for St Rep had $914 cash on hand on the January 19 report, all left over from 2010.  Curt Hanson for State Representative has been actively fundraising and reported $6272 on hand.

Original post 6/20/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

First Day of Filing

Locals Johnson, Sherman among first group

Two local legislative candidates turned their paperwork in to the Secretary of State on today's first day of filing.

West Branch Democrat David Johnson has filed in House District 73, now held by Republican Jeff Kaufmann. The seat covers all of Cedar County, Scott Township and Greater Metro Solon in Johnson, and the GOP stronghold of Wilton in Muscatine County. Overall the seat leans slightly Democratic.

In no-incumbent House 77 in western and southern Johnson County, North Liberty Republican Steve Sherman is officially in. He's likely to face Democratic county supervisor Sally Stutsman in this strong Democratic seat.

Matt Schultz is continuing the tradition that dates back to the dawn of the net in the Paul Pate administration: daily candidate lists (pdf, bookmark-n-save). I'm more OCD (Obsessively Compulsive about Districts) more than anyone, but dang it if there STILL weren't a couple new (to me) legislative candidates whose names I hadn't seen before who filed on Day One.

Republican Steven Everly of Knoxville is running in open Senate District 14, the Paul McKinley seat. He works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. He'll have a primary against Wayne County Supervisor Amy Sinclair. Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, will face the winner.

Rick McClure of Ottumwa is again trying to challenge Democrat Mary Gaskill in House 81. He ran as an independent in 2008; now he's filed on the GOP line. He'll have to get through a primary with Blake Smith, who also filed.

Another now-official primary is in House District 7, where Republicans Mark Frakes and Tedd Gassman will face off for the right to challenge freshman Democrat John Wittneben, a narrow winner last time.

The early birds included a trio of youthful Republicans who'd already announced:

Megan Hess of Spencer, a former Steve King intern, in open House District 2

Maison Bleam of Rockwall City, the former UI student government president, filed in House 10, where he's primary-ing GOP freshman Tom Shaw.

And Dane Nealson in Ames-based House 45 (Beth Wessel-Kroeschell's seat).

Other expected early birds included:

Adel Republican Jake Chapman in open Senate District 10

Attorney Jeff Wright in the Ankeny This Is Where Your District Went seat, open House 37

Cedar Rapids Democrat Art Staed won one House term in 2006, then lost a 13 vote squeaker to Renee Schulte. He's now trying to knock her off in House 66, and the turf looks better for him than it did last time.

In routine incumbent filing:

In the safest red seat in the state, Sioux County's House 4, Republican Dwayne Alons files for another term.

We also have the Republican incumbent with the bluest seat, Zwingle's Brian Moore in House 58. He's looking at a rematch with the Democrat he upset, Tom Schueller.

Marshalltown Democrat Mark Smith in House 71

GOP freshman Jarad Klein of Keota in Washington-Keokuk county based House 78, where he dodged a redistricting pair-up when fellow GOPer Betty DeBoef retired

Republican Steve Olson of DeWitt in House 97

And we three Scott County House incumbents: Democrat Jim Lykam in House 89, Republican Ross Paustian in House 92, and Republican Linda Miller in 94.

And this one is an announcement but NOT a filing: Republican Greg Grupp, a Sioux City banker, in open House District 14. That's fellow Republican Jeremy Taylor's district without his house; Taylor is staying put in House 13 where he faces the state's only two incumbent House general election matchup against Democrat Chris Hall.

Oh, yeah. Almost forgot. A couple of dudes named Boswell and Latham filed.

The pattern is pretty consistent in this filing thing: A flurry of activity on Day One, then very little action the rest of the week and through Week Two. The filingy starts to pick up again at the beginning of Week 3, the surprises start on about Wednesday, and all hell breaks loose Friday afternoon.

My goal the next three weeks is a daily update, though I may skip a day if it's really dead. If you file on a slow day, you might get a bigger Deeth Blog writeup. And my usual griping about You Only Get One Announcement doesn't apply: a filing is a filing. But you get no story for an announcement "announce" AFTER you file.

I'm simultaneously working on the District Of The Day reboot. Hoping to hit with that ASAP after the March 16 filing deadline. I haven't decided on format and frequency yet; if I actually did a district a DAY the primary would be over well before I reached Chuck Isenhart and Pat Murphy in Dubuque's House 99 and 100. House Seat of the Hour, maybe? Senator of the Second?

Back to the District of the Day Routine

We turned into a pumpkin at midnight -- well, 1:20 AM to be exact -- Tuesday/Wednesday, so with the national press off to New Hampshire it's time for us locals to get back to the routine local stuff of non-presidential politics. And for me that's legislative races.

The big, though not entirely shocking, news is that Kim Pearson is bailing on the legislature after just one term. The rumor mill had long been saying she was considering it. There had even been reports that's she'd recruited her own primary challenger, tea partyish Jim Carley.

Pearson upset conservaDem Geri Huser in 2010 with under 50 percent of the vote in a three way race, and that was as an unknown with an R after her name in a really good GOP year. She won few friends among her leadership to put it mildly, and derailed an anti-choice bill because it wasn't a pure total abortion ban.

Pearson's retirement may actually improve GOP chances in the new version of Altoona-based House District 30, even though the margin gets slightly more Republican. I'd expect other Republican(s) to jump in. Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, is already in on the Democratic side.

Bleeding Heartland speculates Pearson may be forming a new anti-choice group; my bet is, now that she has even less to lose, she focuses on recruiting primary opponents for impure House Republicans and further monkeywrenching the whole legislative process.

In Ottumwa, Republican Blake Smith announced for House District 81 against Democrat Mary Gaskill.

Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight in this District Draws Itself turf (Ottumwa is 82% of a House district) for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.

In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. Republicans looked like they were making a serious 2010 effort with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win. Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for the fluke 2010 election of Senator Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue.

And in really dull news, Republican Randy Feenstra announces for a second term in Sioux County dominated Senate District 2. The lines shuffle a bit but it's still the most Republican seat in the state.

Old Senate District 2 was the scene of an epic primary in 2004 as relative moderate Dave Mulder knocked off the state's leading queer-baiter of the era, Ken Veenstra. Mulder stepped down after one term, semi-voluntarily (another epic primary was likely), and Feenstra moved from the county courthouse to the Senate with no opponent in either the primary OR the general. That's likely again this time, which I guess is good; one less race to boost Republican turnout.

Two More Democratic Announcements

Two More Democratic Announcements

A day after Cara Kennedy-Ode officially joins a a sure to be crowded primary field the race in heavily Democratic House District 36, another candidate, William Rock, joins the race. Incumbent Janet Petersen is going for a empty and friendly Senate seat.

And an incumbent announcement: "State Representative Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa, announced today that she will seek re-election to the Iowa House of Representatives in 2012. She will run in the new House District 81, which includes Ottumwa and the eastern part of Wapello County." Her turf is a solidly Democratic seat and a little-changed District Draws Itself, with Ottumwa at 82% of ideal House seat size. Republicans made their most serious effort in ages last cycle with Jane Holody, but Gaskill earned a 57% win.

District of the Day: Senate District 41, House Districts 81 and 82

District of the Day: Senate District 41, House Districts 81 and 82

Senate District 41

Registration: D 15367, R 11345, N 12211, total 38972, D+ 4022
Incumbent: Mark Chelgren, R-Ottumwa

Enjoy the ride, Chickenman; you won't be back in 2014.

Mark Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. Chelgren has cut an abrasive profile in his first session, but with Democrats in Senate control he's been noticed less that the House Crazy Caucus of Pearson, Massie and Shaw.

The most Democratic seat held by a Republican keeps a big Democratic edge. The district keeps Ottumwa and a slightly different portion of Wapello County; under the old lines within Wapello, Krieman was ahead by nearly 1000 votes. Davis County also stays in the district. But from there the district goes east, grabbing all of Van Buren and adding most of the population of blue-trending Jefferson County. The district line wraps around the east of Fairfield, bringing it into the district. Fairfield was home base for Democratic Senator Becky Schmitz, who won in a district that also included Van Buren in 2006. Schmitz, who lost to Sandy Greiner in 2010, is reportedly interested in a comeback, but it's not clear where she can try that in 2012. If she can wait a cycle, this looks like excellent turf.

House District 81

Registration: D 8765, R 4417, N 5452, total 18646, D+ 4348
Incumbent: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa

The District Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. Minor changes around the edges, of course. Instead of getting the townships south and west of the city, the district goes east to the county line, picking up Agency, Eldon, and the American Gothic house.

This seat was turbulent a decade ago; Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.

In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. She overwhelmingly won a bizarre primary last year over a former county supervisor (short version: the guy resigned, moved out of state, moved back soon after with no explanation). Republicans looked like there were making a serious effort last year with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win.


House District 82

Registration: D 6602, R 6928, N 6759, total 20326, R+ 326
Incumbent Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield (Kurt Swaim, D-Bloomfield, retiring)

A Democratic redistricting pair was resolved when Kurt Swaim of Bloomfield announced his retirement:

This decision is not of recent origin. I told some close friends and family members eighteen months ago that, if re-elected, the current term would, in all probability, be my last one.

I have been asked if the new redistricting had any effect on my decision. It really did not. My decision was largely decided before the maps were released. However, it is a far easier decision to make knowing that Curt Hanson, a colleague from Fairfield that I greatly respect and admire, has committed to run in the new district.

The Davis County based Swaim was first elected in 2002 in old House 94, which was Davis, Appanoose and Wayne counties. In redistricting, he was paired with Curt Hanson of Fairfield in new 82.

Swaim would have faced either a poor fit move to adjacent House 80 or a primary on Hanson's turf. The new district has all of Van Buren and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield, from Hanson's old seat, and only Davis from Swaim's. The new district leans slightly Republican, with a GOP registration edge of 326. That's almost the same as Hanson's current district.

The Fairfield-based House seat flipped Democratic in 1996, first with Rebecca Reynolds then with John Whitaker in 2002.

When Whitaker resigned to take a federal Department of Agriculture job in the summer of 2009, Fairfield became the center of statewide attention. Anti-marriage equality groups pumped huge amounts of out of state money into Fairfield, and Democrats responded with an all-out effort as well. Hanson prevailed by just 127 votes over Republican Steve Burgmeier. Two independent conservative candidates, representing the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea, were in the race, and they drew more votes than the difference.



The rematch in the fall of 2010 was just the two of them. Despite the lack of Splitters!, the annus horriblis for Democrats and the fact that he was now just one of 100 races instead of the only game in town, the popular retired driver's ed teacher increased his margin over Burgmeier to more than 1000 votes.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map