Senate District 29
Registration: D 15249, R 10312, N 16344, total 41935, D +4937
Incumbent: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa; holdover seat
The Democrats have already picked up one House seat in this area, and are likely to claim the other.
Paired-up Senate 29 was the linchpin to a whole lot of moving and shuffling in eastern Iowa. After several months of
waiting, the announcements came fast: Tom Hancock would retire and Tod
Bowman would hold over. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner
of the cycle, holding the Clinton based seat for the party after Roger
Stewart retired. But he only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won
his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part
of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Bowman has two years to get to know rural Dubuque county; the solid Democratic edge should keep him safe thereafter.
House District 57
Registration: D 7289, R 5653, N 7830, total 20789, D +1636
Open seat; Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna, retiring. Uncontested.
Talk
about clearing the field. Technically this is a Republican held seat.
But after Lukan retired to take a job as Terry Branstad's drug czar,
Democrat Nancy Dunkel of Dyersville was such a prohibitive favorite that no one else filed. Dunkel will take office in January with no primary or general election opposition. She's an Iowa Women’s Hall of Fame recipient and the first chairwoman of the Iowa Bankers Association.
The
seat is almost all of Dubuque County outside the city limits. It sheds
Manchester and southern Delaware County, where Lukan had found his
winning margins for a decade.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Friends of Nancy Dunkel
House District 58
Registration: D 7960, R 4659, N 8514, total 21146, D +3301
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle
This... is going to be tough. Where do I start? Moore gets the number 18 most Democratic district--the most Democratic seat held by a Republican. He loses the
northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque areas where he got his 138
vote winning margin last time. He got paired up with another Republican,
and Lee Hein claimed the more GOP district to the west. And he has a
rematch with the gut he upset last time, Democrat Tom Schueller.
Moore was living proof in 2010 that Some Dude gets elected sometimes. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic
primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and
getting into the house race against Schueller, who had been an unopposed
winner in 2008.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: CITIZENS FOR SCHUELLER, Brian Moore for State Representative Despite the uphill fight, Moore has taken in some cash and has $6,001.22 on hand. Schueller has $10,121.97 ready to spend.
Senate District 29, House District 57 & 58: District of the Day 1 - 6/02/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Iowa Senate District 29. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Senate District 29. Show all posts
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 29, Iowa House District 57 & 58
Senate District 29
Registration: D 16246, R 10692, N 17662, total 44627, D +5554
Incumbent: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa; holdover seat (Tom Hancock, D-Epworth, retiring)
Basically, Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district. Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Bowman has two years to get to know rural Dubuque county; the solid Democratic edge should keep him safe thereafter.
Campaign finance report: Friends of Tod Bowman
Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats are Republican held, and both are must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.
House District 57
Registration: D 7707, R 5822, N 8315, total 21859, D +1885
Open seat; Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna, retiring
Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who got screwed bad with this map and called it a day. He's in his mid-30s and spent a decade in the legislature; we may hear from him again. As for his party, the GOP failed to recruit a candidate by the primary deadline.
Democrats were ready the day after Lukan stepped down, with Nancy Dunkel of Dyersville, an Iowa Women’s Hall of Fame recipient and the first chairwoman of the Iowa Bankers Association.
The easy way to describe this seat is: all of Dubuque County outside the city limits. That's not exact but close enough. It sheds Manchester and southern Delaware.
House District 58
Registration: D 8539, R 4870, N 9347, total 22768, D +3669
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle
Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.
Schueller is seeking a comeback. That, plus the party margin, puts this near the top of the Democrats' target list; this is the most Democratic seat held by a Republican. Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County.
Brian Moore for State Representative had $2650 cash on hand on the January 19 campaign finance report, while Citizens for Schueller had nearly twice that, $5153.
The only good news for Moore is that he's not the guy who had to move. Moore and Monticello Republican Lee Hein got paired up, but it was a My District Just Not My House thing for Hein, who moved back into House 96.
Original post 6/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 16246, R 10692, N 17662, total 44627, D +5554
Incumbent: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa; holdover seat (Tom Hancock, D-Epworth, retiring)
Basically, Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district. Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Bowman has two years to get to know rural Dubuque county; the solid Democratic edge should keep him safe thereafter.
Campaign finance report: Friends of Tod Bowman
Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats are Republican held, and both are must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.
House District 57
Registration: D 7707, R 5822, N 8315, total 21859, D +1885
Open seat; Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna, retiring
Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who got screwed bad with this map and called it a day. He's in his mid-30s and spent a decade in the legislature; we may hear from him again. As for his party, the GOP failed to recruit a candidate by the primary deadline.
Democrats were ready the day after Lukan stepped down, with Nancy Dunkel of Dyersville, an Iowa Women’s Hall of Fame recipient and the first chairwoman of the Iowa Bankers Association.
The easy way to describe this seat is: all of Dubuque County outside the city limits. That's not exact but close enough. It sheds Manchester and southern Delaware.
House District 58
Registration: D 8539, R 4870, N 9347, total 22768, D +3669
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle
Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.
Schueller is seeking a comeback. That, plus the party margin, puts this near the top of the Democrats' target list; this is the most Democratic seat held by a Republican. Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County.
Brian Moore for State Representative had $2650 cash on hand on the January 19 campaign finance report, while Citizens for Schueller had nearly twice that, $5153.
The only good news for Moore is that he's not the guy who had to move. Moore and Monticello Republican Lee Hein got paired up, but it was a My District Just Not My House thing for Hein, who moved back into House 96.
Original post 6/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Thursday, June 02, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58
District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58
Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.
Senate District 29
Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa andTom Hancock, D-Epworth Hancock will retire; Bowman holds over with no election..
The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.
Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.
Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.
Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.
House District 57
Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent:Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna UPDATE January 5: Lukan not running.
Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.
Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."
That said, he might be able to get away with a move next door into open House 96 in Delaware and Jones. The Iowa Republican also considers Lukan as a possible retirement (a funny term for a guy in his early 30s) noting Lukan is getting married this summer in Des Moines. Administration job? In any case, as an insurance agent, he's more mobile than the two members paired in House 58...
House District 58
Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingleand Lee Hein, R-Monticello
UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.
UPDATE November 10: Schueller to seek comeback.
...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?
Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?
Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.
The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.
Senate District 29
Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa and
The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.
Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.
Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.
House District 57
Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent:
Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."
House District 58
Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle
UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.
UPDATE November 10: Schueller to seek comeback.
...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?
Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?
Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.
The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
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