Solon school board member and former NCS executive Dick Schwab has jumped into the House District 73 race, which means Johnson County will see at least one Democratic primary contest this June.
Schwab has a high philanthropy profile in Johnson County and was the Press-Citizen's Person Of The Year in 2001. He's also well known for hosting weddings at his "Celebration Barn," which has put him at the center of several hot county zoning fights.
Schwab will face off in the primary with former West Branch city council member David Johnson, who announced soon after Map Day and filed yesterday, the first day candidates could turn in their papers to the Secretary of State. But the rumor mill says some local Democrats weren't optimistic about Johnson's chances.
The June 5 primary winner will be trying to replace Republican Jeff Kaufmann, first elected in 2004 and now a top member of House GOP leadership. The district covers all of Cedar County, Scott Township and Greater Metro Solon in Johnson, and the GOP stronghold of Wilton in Muscatine County. Overall the seat leans slightly Democratic, in large part because of the larger chunk of Johnson County.
As for the primary dynamic, the population breaks out about 60% Cedar County, 30 Johnson and 10 Muscatine. That's population, not Democratic primary turnout. Mileage may vary depending on what other contested races we see, if any.
The worst.
Showing posts with label Jeff Kaufmann. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Kaufmann. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 37, House Districts 73 and 74
District of the Day: Senate District 37, House Districts 73 and 74
Senate District 37
Registration: D 14731, R 9499, N 13327, total 37,613, D + 5232
Incumbent: Bob Dvorsky, D-Coralville
One of the biggest surprises of the whole map for me was that Bob Dvorsky did not get pulled all the way into Johnson County. The People's Republic was the second fastest growing part of the state in the last decade, behind only Dallas County. We are now big enough for a second whole Senate district. Most of that growth has been in Dvorsky's old district, in places like Tiffin, North Liberty, Solon, and the I-380 corridor.
We did get our fourth whole House seat (check back Thursday for that) but instead of getting that paired with his Coralville base, Dvorsky was sent east for the first time, picking up all of Cedar County and the city of Wilton in Muscatine County, all of which had been in Muscatine Republican Jim Hahn's territory. Bob's original House district, which he won in 1986, went west to Iowa County. When he went to the Senate in a hurry-up February 1994 mid-session special (infamous for an election day blizzard) he got a half-Johnson, half Linn district. The Linn part shrank in 2001, moving out of Cedar Rapids and becoming about a 75% Johnson seat, but the basic configuration remained.
Within Johnson, Dvorsky sheds ground to the west this decade: Tiffin, North Liberty, Oxford, Swisher, Shueyville. He keeps Coralville, Solon, and Penn Township (the rural subdivisions north of Iowa City) and the northeast corner of the county. He also adds one precinct on the west side of Iowa City (for my locals: Iowa City 9).
Though this remains maybe a 60% Johnson County district, the addition of swingy Cedar County and heavily Republican Wilton costs Dvorsky nearly 2,500 registered Democrats. But with a still solid margin he can afford it. Republicans last bothered opposing Dvorsky in 2002; he beat a Libertarian in 2010 and holds over till 2014.
House District 73
Registration: D 6518, R 5718, N 7589, total 19841, D+ 800
Incumbent: Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton
Kaufmannn took over for Dan Boddicker in 2004 and has risen quickly in House GOP leadership. The old seat was almost dead-even with a Democratic registration edge of 29 as of this April. But he's been lucky with opponents. A well-funded 2006 race netted just 37%; a 2008 self-starter quit the race but neglected to take her name off the ballot, and a late-starting Dem polled just 27% in 2010 (worse than Name On The Ballot did in 2008).
But Kaufmann has more to worry about next year than the collapse of the Newt Gingrich campaign. While he keeps all of Cedar County and the GOP stronghold of Wilton, he loses the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa and Moscow. Instead he inherits a much larger portion of the People's Republic. Last decade he had two townships, trailer court dominated Scott and negligibly small Lincoln. He keeps Scott and adds four townships to the north (Newport, Big Grove, Graham and Cedar) plus the city of Solon.
Kaufmann was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. He said it was because Cedar County was put in an urban-based Senate district. But it's worth noting that the partisan balance shifts in his own seat, which now has a Democratic registration edge of 800. West Branch city council member David Johnson has announced on the Democratic side, and other names are in the rumor mill.
House District 74
Registration: D 8213, R 3781, N 5738, total 17772, D+ 4432
Incumbent: Dave Jacoby, D-Coralville
Big growth means big changes in Dave Jacoby's lines, but District Draws Itself math means Coralville stays in one piece and dominates whatever House district it's in. Jacoby went from the city council to the House in the summer of 2003 when then minority leader Dick Myers retired. That special election, which Jacoby won with 71%, was the last time Republicans ran a candidate. In fact, Jacoby's 2010 opponent actually left the GOP to run as a Libertarian, a sign of just how weak the GOP brand is in Johnson County. He didn't do much worse at 20%.
Earlier in the year, Jacoby had handled a bizarre labor-backed primary challenge (the opponent dropped out after the withdrawal deadline, then at the last minute hinted at dropping back in), winning 88% to 12%.
North Liberty grew so much that it has to be split from Coralville for the first time. Jacoby also gives up Tiffin and picks up one precinct on the west side of Iowa City. (That happened to be Mary Mascher's precinct; she quickly announced her move back into her district, now numbered 86.) Jacoby's new district has 1000 fewer Democrats than the old, but that's more a function of shedding the excess population rather than changes in the strong Democratic edge.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Senate District 37
Registration: D 14731, R 9499, N 13327, total 37,613, D + 5232Incumbent: Bob Dvorsky, D-Coralville
One of the biggest surprises of the whole map for me was that Bob Dvorsky did not get pulled all the way into Johnson County. The People's Republic was the second fastest growing part of the state in the last decade, behind only Dallas County. We are now big enough for a second whole Senate district. Most of that growth has been in Dvorsky's old district, in places like Tiffin, North Liberty, Solon, and the I-380 corridor.
We did get our fourth whole House seat (check back Thursday for that) but instead of getting that paired with his Coralville base, Dvorsky was sent east for the first time, picking up all of Cedar County and the city of Wilton in Muscatine County, all of which had been in Muscatine Republican Jim Hahn's territory. Bob's original House district, which he won in 1986, went west to Iowa County. When he went to the Senate in a hurry-up February 1994 mid-session special (infamous for an election day blizzard) he got a half-Johnson, half Linn district. The Linn part shrank in 2001, moving out of Cedar Rapids and becoming about a 75% Johnson seat, but the basic configuration remained.
Within Johnson, Dvorsky sheds ground to the west this decade: Tiffin, North Liberty, Oxford, Swisher, Shueyville. He keeps Coralville, Solon, and Penn Township (the rural subdivisions north of Iowa City) and the northeast corner of the county. He also adds one precinct on the west side of Iowa City (for my locals: Iowa City 9).
Though this remains maybe a 60% Johnson County district, the addition of swingy Cedar County and heavily Republican Wilton costs Dvorsky nearly 2,500 registered Democrats. But with a still solid margin he can afford it. Republicans last bothered opposing Dvorsky in 2002; he beat a Libertarian in 2010 and holds over till 2014.
House District 73
Registration: D 6518, R 5718, N 7589, total 19841, D+ 800
Incumbent: Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton
Kaufmannn took over for Dan Boddicker in 2004 and has risen quickly in House GOP leadership. The old seat was almost dead-even with a Democratic registration edge of 29 as of this April. But he's been lucky with opponents. A well-funded 2006 race netted just 37%; a 2008 self-starter quit the race but neglected to take her name off the ballot, and a late-starting Dem polled just 27% in 2010 (worse than Name On The Ballot did in 2008).But Kaufmann has more to worry about next year than the collapse of the Newt Gingrich campaign. While he keeps all of Cedar County and the GOP stronghold of Wilton, he loses the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa and Moscow. Instead he inherits a much larger portion of the People's Republic. Last decade he had two townships, trailer court dominated Scott and negligibly small Lincoln. He keeps Scott and adds four townships to the north (Newport, Big Grove, Graham and Cedar) plus the city of Solon.
Kaufmann was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. He said it was because Cedar County was put in an urban-based Senate district. But it's worth noting that the partisan balance shifts in his own seat, which now has a Democratic registration edge of 800. West Branch city council member David Johnson has announced on the Democratic side, and other names are in the rumor mill.
House District 74
Registration: D 8213, R 3781, N 5738, total 17772, D+ 4432
Incumbent: Dave Jacoby, D-Coralville
Big growth means big changes in Dave Jacoby's lines, but District Draws Itself math means Coralville stays in one piece and dominates whatever House district it's in. Jacoby went from the city council to the House in the summer of 2003 when then minority leader Dick Myers retired. That special election, which Jacoby won with 71%, was the last time Republicans ran a candidate. In fact, Jacoby's 2010 opponent actually left the GOP to run as a Libertarian, a sign of just how weak the GOP brand is in Johnson County. He didn't do much worse at 20%.
Earlier in the year, Jacoby had handled a bizarre labor-backed primary challenge (the opponent dropped out after the withdrawal deadline, then at the last minute hinted at dropping back in), winning 88% to 12%.
North Liberty grew so much that it has to be split from Coralville for the first time. Jacoby also gives up Tiffin and picks up one precinct on the west side of Iowa City. (That happened to be Mary Mascher's precinct; she quickly announced her move back into her district, now numbered 86.) Jacoby's new district has 1000 fewer Democrats than the old, but that's more a function of shedding the excess population rather than changes in the strong Democratic edge.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Democrat Johnson announces in House 73
Democrat Johnson announces in House 73
Other names are in the rumor mill, but the first Democratic candidate has officially announced in House District 73.
The West Branch Times reports that West Branch city council member David Johnson is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton.
Johnson said he plans to run on “a conglomeration of issues ranging from the lack of funding for our institutions of higher education as well as K-12 and preschool, the need for tax increment finance reform, reform in the regulation of our utilities, corporate income tax reform as well as eliminating corporate welfare at all levels.”
The Cedar County based House District 73 (numbered 79 in the old map) changes significantly. It loses most of northern Muscatine County, except for the city of Wilton. It also takes in a much larger part of eastern Johnson County, including the city of Solon.
The changes give the new district a Democratic voter registration edge of 800. Kaufmann's old district was almost exactly evenly split between the parties. Johnson toldthe West Branch paper:
Update: Blog for Iowa's Paul Deaton (who lives in the district) notes: "Two others are mulling a run in HD73. Informal Meetup of HD 73 Dems Thursday April 28 7PM Agave Restaurant West Branch all Democrats welcome."
Other names are in the rumor mill, but the first Democratic candidate has officially announced in House District 73.
The West Branch Times reports that West Branch city council member David Johnson is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton.
Johnson said he plans to run on “a conglomeration of issues ranging from the lack of funding for our institutions of higher education as well as K-12 and preschool, the need for tax increment finance reform, reform in the regulation of our utilities, corporate income tax reform as well as eliminating corporate welfare at all levels.”
The Cedar County based House District 73 (numbered 79 in the old map) changes significantly. It loses most of northern Muscatine County, except for the city of Wilton. It also takes in a much larger part of eastern Johnson County, including the city of Solon.
The changes give the new district a Democratic voter registration edge of 800. Kaufmann's old district was almost exactly evenly split between the parties. Johnson toldthe West Branch paper:
“Jeff will be a formidable candidate, even with the redistricting,” Johnson said. “But I believe that by starting my ground campaign this summer, I will be able to have sufficient one-on-one contact with my constituents to give the voters a sense of who I am, and what I intend to do. Constituents need to have a real connection and accessibility to their representatives. I intend to give them that. There is no doubt that a lot of voters see Jeff as having a pleasant personality, so the task for me will be to run against his record.”If he's elected it could be confusing: there's already a David Johnson in the Legislature, Senator David Johnson of Ocheyedan (who was featured in our first District Of The Day).
Update: Blog for Iowa's Paul Deaton (who lives in the district) notes: "Two others are mulling a run in HD73. Informal Meetup of HD 73 Dems Thursday April 28 7PM Agave Restaurant West Branch all Democrats welcome."
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