District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 40, Iowa House District 79 & 80

Senate District 40
Registration: D 10118, R 15642, N 12388, total 38175, R +5524
Open seat; Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa, retiring

It's hard to even call this "Rielly's" district, the lines have changed so much. His home base of Oskaloosa and the eastern half of Mahaska is all that overlaps. The old seat went north and east: Keokuk and Poweshiek counties, most of Iowa (except Marengo) and a sliver of Tama. This district picks up the rest of Mahaska, all of Monroe and Appanoose, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella, It also gets rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of the Democrats from the city itself.

The numbers make Republican Ken Rozenboom, a Mahaska County supervisor, a heavy favorite. The line was blank on the Democratic primary ballot, as Rielly retired days before the filing deadline. Like Republican Jeff Kaufmann, he's running for the Board of Supervisors instead. And like the Sally Stutsman seat in Johnson, the main excitement may be filling Rozenboom's supervisor seat post-election.

The Democrats have recriuted a credible candidate, attorney and Pella school board member Tim Tripp. But this is the number 7 Republican district, the toughest that Democrats are contesting this cycle.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Rozenboom for Senate, Tripp4Senate.org The late-starting Tripp is competitive in cash on hand with $4,369.54. Rozenboom has $5,168.44, but he started raising and spending earlier.

House District 79
Registration: D 3818, R 9075, N 5941, total 18849, R +5257
Incumbent: Guy Vander Linden, R-Oskaloosa

UPDATE September 20: Democrat Wilson has moved out of state.

Two years ago this was a top tier race as Vander Linden beat two-term Democrat Eric Palmer in a dead-even Oskaloosa-Grinnell seat.

The new map changed everything. Two similar sized cities that had always been the anchors of different legislative districts, Oskaloosa and Pella, got drawn tohether. Pella's Jim Van Engelenhoeven is retiring, and freshman Guy Vander Linden inherits what's now a safe seat (#7 most Republican). The top six are uncontested, so no Democrat running this year has tougher turf than Chris Wilson of Oskaloosa.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: VANDER LINDEN FOR IOWA Wilson had not raised enough money to form a committee.

House District 80
Registration: D 6300, R 6567, N 6447, total 19326, R +267
No Incumbent

No-incumbent House 80 is a very close swing seat: just barely Democratic before the caucuses, just barely Republican after.  It includes all of Appanoose and Monroe Counties, western Wapello and eastern Mahaska; it comes up to the city limits of Ottumwa and Oskaloosa but includes neither. It's right on the line for House control: tied for number 49 most Democratic/number 51 most Republican.

Democrats have an A-list candidate from the first family of Monroe County politics. Joe Judge, a teacher and former county party chair, is the son of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and former Sen. John Judge (who succeeded Patty in the Senate when she became Secretary of Agriculture).

Larry Sheets of Moulton, a retired engineer and former Moulton-Udell school board member, is the Republican. He filed in 2010 in the old Kurt Swaim seat, but dropped out before the withdrawal deadline.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Sheets For Iowa House, Judge for Iowa Judge has a huge money lead with $20,786.21 on hand. Sheets has just $993.92.

Senate District 40, House District 79 & 80: District of the Day 1 - 6/17/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 40, Iowa House District 79 & 80

Senate District 40
Registration: D 11309, R 16838, N 14388, total 42561, R +5529
Open seat; Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa, retiring

Sorry, Dems, but this one's gone. Even if Rielly had stayed in the race, it was probably gone. It's the seventh most Republican Senate District in the state, and Republicans had recruited a strong challenger in Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom.


Rielly's late retirement after two terms on light-red turf is probably a blessing in disguise. Rather than using resources in a difficult fight to save an incumbent, Mike Gronstal can write this seat off -- at this point, Democrats don't even have a candidate -- and focus on some of his other tough races.

It's hard to even call this "Rielly's" district. His home base of Oskaloosa and the eastern half of Mahaska is all that overlaps. The old seat went north and east: Keokuk and Poweshiek counties, most of Iowa (except Marengo) and a sliver of Tama. This district picks up the rest of Mahaska, all of Monroe and Appanoose, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella, It also gets rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of the Democrats from the city itself.

Rozenboom even managed to clear the primary field. Potential rival Mark Doland dropped out in January and endorsed Rozenboom, but expressed interest in Rozenboom's county supervisor seat. (Like Sally Stutsman in Johnson, Rozenboom is in the middle of a four year term.)

Campaign finance reports: Rozenboom for Senate

House District 79
Registration: D 4451, R 9837, N 7158, total 21460, R +5386
Incumbent: Guy Vander Linden, R-Oskaloosa (Jim Van Engelenhoeven, R-Pella, retiring)

This is the Republican version of the Democratic pair-up in Lee County ten years ago. Two similar sized cities that had always been the anchors of different legislative districts got thrown together. In this corner: Oskaloosa, population 11,463. In that corner, weighing in at 10,352, the world heavyweight champion of tulips and windows, Pella.

But unlike the epic Keokuk vs. Ft. Madison Democratic primary of 2002, this one got worked out. Pella's Jim Van Engelenhoeven is retiring, and freshman Guy Vander Linden inherits what's now a safe seat. Democrat Chris Wilson of Oskaloosa is going to give it a try.

Two years ago it was a very different story, as Vander Linden beat two-term Democrat Eric Palmer last year in a dead-even Oskaloosa-Grinnell seat. The new district has only Pella and surrounding Lake Prairie township in Marion County. In Mahaska the line includes Osky and the enclave of University Park, plus the geographic west half of the county: New Sharon, Beacon, Leighton.

Campaign finance reports: VANDER LINDEN for Iowa

House District 80
Registration: D 6858, R 7001, N 7230, total 21101, R +143
No Incumbent

Mike Gronstal's road to 26 senators may not run through Oskaloosa anymore. But Kevin McCarthy's route from minority leader to Speaker definitely goes through Albia.

No-incumbent House 80 is a very close swing seat: just barely Democratic before the caucuses, just barely Republican after.  It includes all of Appanoose and Monroe Counties, western Wapello and eastern Mahaska; it comes up to the city limits of Ottumwa and Oskaloosa but includes neither.

Democrats have an A-list candidate from the first family of Monroe County politics. Joe Judge, a teacher and former county party chair, is the son of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and former Sen. John Judge (who succeeded Patty in the Senate when she became Secretary of Agriculture).

Larry Sheets of Moulton, a retired engineer and former school board member, is the Republican. Judge for Iowa is off to an early money lead, with $9694 on hand as of the January 19 report. Sheets for Iowa House had $326.

Original post 6/17/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

The Rielly-tirement

A tough race for Iowa Senate Democrats just got tougher, as Tom Rielly of Oskaloosa announces his retirement:

I am not saying good bye to public service. I always have and always will be committed to public service, it’s just time for me to stay closer to home. I am confident that I could make this a competitive race in the new district.

Rielly won his two terms in a district with a Democratic registration deficit of about 1000. His old seat was further north and included Iowa and Poweshiek counties. The new seat was mostly new turf except for the immediate Oskaloosa area: All of Mahaska, Monroe and Appanoose, plus Pella in Marion County and rural western Wapello County (including NONE of solid Democratic Ottumwa.) As of March 1 Republicans had a +5529 registration edge in Senate District 40. I need to update the monster spreadsheet but I'm pretty sure this is the reddest Senate seat held by a Democrat.

UPDATE: Looked at the Monster Spreadsheet. Senate 40 is the seventh most Republican in the state, and by FAR the reddest with an incumbent Democrat. The next closest is Senate 27, held by Amanda Ragan of Mason City, with a R _1811 registration.

So Rielly was number two on the target list, right behind Governor Gronstal himself. Republicans have a strong candidate in Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom. (Bleeding Heartland has good background on Rozenboom and this race.)

Still, there's Democrats who can win in these parts. Monroe County is home base for the Judge family. Both Patty and John Judge represented parts of this area in the Senate, and son Joe Judge is running in half of this Senate District, House 80, this year. 80 is a swing district and if I'm Joe I stay with that race. The heavy GOP margin is in Guy Vander Linden's House 79 half of the seat.

Eric Palmer of Oskaloosa served two House terms in this area before losing to Vander Linden in 2010. There were a lot of Grinnell votes in that district, though.

But I'm just throwing those names out there without any concrete reasons to think they're running. Hard to come up with positive spin here, other than to hope that Gronstal and team have a path to 26 seats that doesn't include this one.

Now Official: GOP's Rozenboom in Senate 40

This first surfaced back in September, now official:

Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom has announced his run for the Iowa Senate.

Rozenboom, 60, of Oskaloosa, is a Republican and former sales and production management employee for Wake’s Inc. He was elected as a supervisor last year.

Rozenboom is running for Senate District 40 in 2012. Due to this year’s redistricting, the seat will include all of Mahaska, Monroe and Appanoose counties, western Wapello County, and the city of Pella in Marion County. It also includes Sen. Tom Reilly, D-Oskaloosa, who has not yet announced reelection plans.

The rumor mill also wondered if paired-up Rep. Betty De Boef might be interested in moving back here, but she's now announced her retirement.

This will be an extremely tough hold for the Democrats: a GOP registration edge of nearly 5000, and other than his Oskaloosa base, almost all new turf for Reilly. Number two on the target list behind Governor Gronstal himself.

Rozenboom May Challenge Rielly

Rozenboom May Challenge Rielly in Senate 40

The Oskaloosa News reports: "Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom is considering a run for the Iowa Senate" against Democrat Tom Rielly in Senate District 40.

The GOP supervisor was just elected to his first term last year but says "I’m new to holding political office, I’m not new to politics. I’ve followed politics very closely all my life, and I’m in a time in my life I can consider some of these options."

Rozenboom cited Senate control as a key issue.

“I think we need to make every effort to do our part to change that balance of power. I’m frustrated that Mike Gronstal and other Senate Democrats basically blocked a lot of legislation, they blocked debate. In our system of government, we should be able to at least debate the issue, and some of these were simply locked out of debate. I think we have an opportunity to change that here locally.”

Rielly is probably number two on the GOP's target list, behind only Gronstal, and based on the numbers has the toughest seat for Democrats to defend. He knocked off an incumbent in 2008 on tough turf but he goes from having a registration deficit of just under 1000 to a deep-red GOP advantage of nearly 5,000, and a lot of new territory. The district includes all of Mahaska, Monroe and Appanoose counties, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella. It also has rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of that Democratic city.

Rozenboom may not be the only Republican looking at this seat. The rumor mill has long said that Rep. Betty De Boef is also interested. De Boef is paired up in a Washington-Keokuk county seat with Rep. Jarad Klein and has said she won't run against Klein in a primary. De Boef would have to move into the Senate district, but she lived in Mahaska when first elected in 2000.